Gale Watch 2, NWS Buffalo, NY

444 
WHUS71 KBUF 081444
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
944 AM EST TUE JAN 8 2013

LEZ040-041-082245-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-130108T2100Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0002.130109T1300Z-130110T0100Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
944 AM EST TUE JAN 8 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO 35 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY.

* WAVES...9 TO 12 FEET ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
TUESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

LOZ042-082245-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-130108T2100Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0002.130109T1500Z-130110T0300Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
944 AM EST TUE JAN 8 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO 35 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY.

* WAVES...9 TO 12 FEET ON WEDNESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-082245-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-130108T2100Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0002.130109T1500Z-130110T0300Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
944 AM EST TUE JAN 8 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO 35 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY.

* WAVES...10 TO 14 FEET ON WEDNESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

LOZ045-082245-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-130108T2100Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0002.130109T1500Z-130110T0300Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
944 AM EST TUE JAN 8 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO 35 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY.

* WAVES...10 TO 14 FEET ON WEDNESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

LOZ062>065-082245-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0002.130109T1500Z-130110T0300Z/
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
944 AM EST TUE JAN 8 2013

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* WINDS...WEST TO 35 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY.

* WAVES...11 TO 15 FEET ON WEDNESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

439 
WHUS71 KBUF 082040
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
340 PM EST TUE JAN 8 2013

LOZ042>045-090445-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-130108T2100Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0002.130109T1500Z-130110T0300Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
340 PM EST TUE JAN 8 2013

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. 

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO 30 KNOTS.

* WAVES...8 TO 11 FEET. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-090445-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-130108T2100Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0002.130109T1300Z-130110T0100Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
340 PM EST TUE JAN 8 2013

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. 

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO 30 KNOTS.

* WAVES...6 TO 9 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

LOZ062>065-090445-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0002.130109T1500Z-130110T0300Z/
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
340 PM EST TUE JAN 8 2013

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO 30 KNOTS.

* WAVES...9 TO 12 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

RSH

815 
WHUS71 KBUF 090252
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
952 PM EST TUE JAN 8 2013

LEZ040-041-091100-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0002.130109T1300Z-130110T0100Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
952 PM EST TUE JAN 8 2013

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO 30 KNOTS.

* WAVES...6 TO 9 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

LOZ042>045-062>065-091100-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0002.130109T1500Z-130110T0300Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
952 PM EST TUE JAN 8 2013

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO 30 KNOTS.

* WAVES...9 TO 12 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

436 
WHUS71 KBUF 090851
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
351 AM EST WED JAN 9 2013

LEZ040-041-091700-
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0002.130109T1300Z-130110T0100Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0004.130109T1500Z-130110T0100Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
351 AM EST WED JAN 9 2013

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EST
THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EST
THIS EVENING. THE GALE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO 35 KNOTS.

* WAVES...6 TO 9 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042>045-062>065-091700-
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0002.130109T1500Z-130110T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0004.130109T1600Z-130110T0300Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
351 AM EST WED JAN 9 2013

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
THIS EVENING. THE GALE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO 35 KNOTS.

* WAVES...8 TO 11 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-LOZ030-091700-
/O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0006.130109T1500Z-130110T0600Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
351 AM EST WED JAN 9 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM
EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
THURSDAY. 

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1154 PM EST MON JAN 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR STRONG WINDS BUT DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH. WET WEATHER RETURNS BY THE END
OF THE WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES BRINGS RAIN TO OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IR IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NY LATE THIS EVENING. THE ONLY AREA OF LINGERING CLOUDS IS
NORTH OF EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO...AND THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHWARD AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. FOR THE MOST PART...A QUIET NIGHT
IS ON TAP AS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. FROM THE
GULF COAST TO NEW ENGLAND. THE ONLY FEATURE OF SIGNIFICANCE IS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ONTARIO CANADA...JUST WEST OF JAMES BAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL RAPIDLY RACE BY TO THE NORTH OF THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES OVERNIGHT. ITS ONLY IMPACT ON THE REGION WORTH NOTING WILL
BE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
STEADY OR EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT...DUE TO A COMBINATION
OF WARM ADVECTION AND FAIRLY DECENT MIXING OF WINDS IN THE LOWEST
FEW LEVELS.

TUESDAY...LOOK FOR SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THE WARM
ADVECTION OCCURRING OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN NOTICEABLY MILDER
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 30S WITH
DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE ONTARIO AND THE USUAL WARM SPOTS IN THE
GENESEE VALLEY AND THE FINGER LAKES BREACHING THE 40 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IT WILL BE MILD DURING THIS PERIOD AS A LOW AMPLITUDE PACIFIC FLOW
WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG TROUGH-RIDGE
PATTERN OVER THE COUNTRY. THIS EARLY PORTION OF THE JANUARY THAW
WILL CONSIST OF TEMPERATURES THAT WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 10 DEGREES F
ABOVE NORMAL...BUT AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AT THE HEIGHT OF THE
WARM STRETCH...DEPARTURES OF MORE THAN 15 DEG CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 50S. THE BREAK FROM OLD MAN WINTER WILL NOT BE
TOTALLY UNEVENTFUL THOUGH...AS MUCH OF THE REGION COULD EXPERIENCE
SOME STRONG WINDS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT TO
CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. THE DETAILS...

ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A +160KT H25 JET OFF BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL
DEVELOP A ROBUST SHORTWAVE IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THIS FEATURE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE COURSE OF
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A PROGRESSIVE LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE
ACROSS OUR REGION WHILE INTENSIFYING A WARM SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW. DESPITE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...THIS WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY
MILD NIGHT ACROSS OUR REGION WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO FALL
BELOW FREEZING.

THE STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY
AND THIS WILL PRODUCE A WELL ALIGNED WIND FIELD OVER THE LOWER LAKES
THAT WILL INCLUDE A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET AS LOW AS 2K FT. SINCE THE
BULK OF THESE WINDS WILL BE FOUND WITHIN A COLD ADVECTIVE FLOW...WE
WILL NOT HAVE THE BENEFIT OF A SHIELDING INVERSION LIKE WE HAVE HAD
IN OTHER SIMILAR SCENARIOS THIS SEASON. THE LESS STABLE THERMAL
ENVIRONMENT WILL THUS PROMOTE MORE MIXING OF THESE WINDS...AND WITH
A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT UP THE LENGTH OF LAKE ERIE...
WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A LOW END HIGH WIND EVENT (GUSTS 50-60 MPH)
FOR THE TYPICAL CORRIDOR FROM THE CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY LAKE SHORE AND
IAG FRONTIER TO ROCHESTER. ELSEWHERE...ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS LOOK
POSSIBLE FOR THE BULK OF THE REGION. DO NOT HAVE NEARLY ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE FOR A WATCH AT THIS POINT...SO WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
IN THE HWO PRODUCT AND HAVE LATER SHIFTS RE-EXAMINE. OTHERWISE THE
DAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO
BETWEEN 40 AND 45.

THE STRONG WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL NOSE UP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR SOME NUISANCE LAKE DERIVED SNOW
SHOWERS EAST OF LK ONTARIO.

THURSDAY WILL THEN BE A VERY NICE DAY ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK...AS A DEEP CLOSED LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE
TRANS-PECOS WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY A BURGEONING RIDGE OVER OUR REGION.
SUN FILLED SKIES WILL SEND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S.

THE REMNANTS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP AND LIFT
OUT ACROSS THE MID WEST THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION AND A
DIVERGENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY
ENCOURAGE SOME RAIN TO SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING
RAIN EAST OF LK ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OUR JANUARY THAW WILL BE IN FULL BLOOM AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD
AS A BROAD RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY. THE HIGHLIGHT OF THIS WARMTH WILL COME LATE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN THE RIDGE WILL HELP TO PUMP +12C H85 UP ACROSS
THE WESTERN COUNTIES. THE 'BLOOM' WILL APPARENTLY DROP OFF ON SUNDAY
THOUGH AS COLDER...MORE SEASONABLE AIR OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

IN TERMS OF PCPN...THE ONCE IMPRESSIVE CLOSED LOW FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL LIFT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY WHILE A
50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL IMPINGE UPON A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
OUR REGION. THIS WILL HELP TO GENERATE SOME WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT
COULD INCLUDE A SOAKING RAIN FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE AMOUNTS
COULD EXCEED A HALF INCH. THE GFS AND ECMWF VARY BY SOME 12 HOURS ON
THE SPEED OF THIS RAIN...WITH THE GFS BEING THE FASTER. WILL USE THE
SOLUTION OFFERED UP BY HPC...WHICH IS A NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
TWO. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO LIKELY POPS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.

THERE SHOULD BE A 24-30 HOUR WINDOW BETWEEN THIS PCPN EVENT AND THE
NEXT ONE...WHICH SHOULD GIVE US THE OPPORTUNITY FOR A VERY NICE DAY
ON SATURDAY. WHILE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM...SATURDAY SHOULD PROVE TO BE THE NICER OF THE WEEKEND DAYS
WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME SUN AND TEMPERATURES AVERAGING ABOUT 20 DEG
ABOVE NORMAL (LOW 50S WEST...MID 40S EST OF LK ONT).

IN REGARDS TO THE ENSUING PCPN EVENT...A COLD FRONT LEADING THE
CHARGE OF THE COLDER AIR OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL GENERATE
SOME SHOWERS OVER OUR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE TIMING
OF THIS FRONT IS QUITE CHALLENGING THOUGH...AS THE ECMWF IS DEPICTING
A CLEAN FRONTAL PASSAGE WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS SOME WAVES ALONG THE
FRONT...WHICH WOULD SLOW ITS EASTWARD PUSH AND EXTEND THE CHANCE FOR
UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO MONDAY.

WILL ONCE AGAIN OPT FOR THE HPC SOLUTION...WHICH FAVORS A SIMPLE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY AND CLEARING WEATHER MONDAY WITH MORE
SEASONABLE AIR POURING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IR IMAGERY AT MIDNIGHT SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY SOME
LINGERING RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS NEAR KART. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WHICH WILL SLIDE TO
THE EAST AS LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF JAMES BAY PASSES WELL TO THE
NORTH. THE ONLY IMPACT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON AREA TAF SITES
WILL BE A STRENGTHENING LLJ AND PERIODIC GUSTY SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS. IN AREAS WHERE WIND GUSTS DO NOT MIX TO THE SURFACE...SOME
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE...BUT EXPECT GUSTS TO BE FAIRLY
PREVALENT...ESPECIALLY AS THE CORE OF THE LLJ CROSSES BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS BACK INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES FOR MORE VFR AT ALL TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN LIKELY
SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING OVERHEAD HAS BROUGHT A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN THIS EVENING WITH WAVES BUILDING
ABOVE 4 FEET ON THE EAST END OF LAKE ERIE DURING THE EVENING AS
WELL. SOUTHWESTERLY FETCH ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL INITIALLY KEEP WAVE
ACTION MORE CONFINED TO THE CANADIAN SIDE OF THE LAKE...HOWEVER
EXPECT WAVES TO INCREASE ABOVE 4 FEET...SCA CRITERIA...ON THE EAST
END OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE THIS EVENING WITH THE REST OF THE
NEARSHORES SEEING SCA WINDS/WAVES LATER TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MORE PLACID CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER EXPECT MUCH
STRONGER WINDS AND WAVES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AN APPROACHING LOW TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC.

&&

.CLIMATE...
TWO DISTINCT PATTERN CHANGES WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW WEEKS
THAT WILL PROVIDE QUITE THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE IN TEMPERATURES.

THE FLOW PATTERN HAS ALREADY BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THE UNITED
STATES...AND THIS WILL DELIVER MILD PACIFIC AIR ACROSS THE ENTIRE
NATION. THIS IS IN PART DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MADDEN-JULIAN
OSCILLATION /MJO/ EPISODE...WHICH IS ORBITING THROUGH PHASE 4 OF THE
WHEELER PHASE/SPACE PLOT. THIS PHASE OF THE MJO HAS A HIGH
CORRELATION TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES DURING WINTER. LATE THIS WEEK A CUTOFF LOW
WILL ALSO EJECT OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...GIVING AN ADDED BOOST TO THE WARMING AS DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. THE NET RESULT
WILL BE ABOUT A WEEK OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...LIKELY PEAKING
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW MAXIMIZES AHEAD OF THE LIFTING
CUTOFF LOW.

THE SECOND PATTERN CHANGE WILL BEGIN TO SHOW ITS CARDS BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE MONTH. A MAJOR SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENT IS UNDERWAY
AND NEARING COMPLETION. SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENTS ARE
FAVORED TO OCCUR DURING AN EASTERLY PHASE OF THE QUASI-BIENNIAL
OSCILLATION /QBO/...WHICH IS THE PHASE THE STRATOSPHERE IS IN THIS
WINTER. THE SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING CAUSES A DRAMATIC
WEAKENING...AND SOMETIMES ENTIRE BREAKDOWN OF THE STRATOSPHERIC
POLAR VORTEX...AND A GREAT WEAKENING OR EVEN REVERSAL OF THE
STRATOSPHERIC POLAR NIGHT JET. THE GFS FORECASTS THIS TO OCCUR OVER
THE NEXT WEEK AT THE 2MB LEVEL.

THE RESULT OF ALL OF THIS IS THE GENERATION OF STRONG HIGH LATITUDE
BLOCKING AS THE DRAMATIC CHANGES IN THE STRATOSPHERE FEED DOWN INTO
THE TROPOSPHERE. HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING FORCES THE COLDEST AIR SOUTH
OUT OF THE HIGH ARCTIC AND TOWARDS THE MID LATITUDES...AND ALSO
FAVORS LASTING STRONGLY NEGATIVE EPISODES OF ARCTIC OSCILLATION /AO/
AND NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION /NAO/. THIS TYPICALLY BEGINS TO TAKE
PLACE 10-15 DAYS AFTER THE SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENT. HOW
LONG IT LASTS CAN VARY...BUT TYPICALLY THE COLD PATTERN LASTS FOR AT
LEAST A FEW WEEKS...AND OCCASIONALLY CAN PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF
WINTER.

AS ALL OF THIS IS OCCURRING...THE MJO IS FORECAST BY THE GEFS
ENSEMBLES TO WEAKEN AND FADE AWAY IN ABOUT 10 DAYS. THE PACIFIC
NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN /PNA/ IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEGATIVE OVER THE
NEXT 10 DAYS...WHICH WILL DIRECT THE FIRST BATCHES OF COLD INTO THE
WESTERN AND EVENTUALLY CENTRAL UNITED STATES. GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SUPPORT A TREND TOWARDS A NEUTRAL OR POSITIVE PNA BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE MONTH...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE GROWING COLD TO SPREAD EASTWARD.

WHAT ALL OF THIS TECHNICAL JARGON MEANS IS THAT THERE IS MODERATE TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PATTERN CHANGE TOWARDS MUCH COLDER WEATHER FOR
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES STARTING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
JANUARY...WITH COLD LIKELY PEAKING IN LATE JANUARY INTO EARLY
FEBRUARY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE COLDEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN IN
AT LEAST SEVERAL YEARS DURING THIS PERIOD. WHAT SNOW POTENTIAL THIS
WILL BRING IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO UNKNOWN DETAILS WITH
SYNOPTIC STORM TRACK AND LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY
         FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...AR/APFFEL/WOOD
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...WOOD
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
452 AM EST MON JAN 7 2013

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-081000-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
452 AM EST MON JAN 7 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. IT IS UNCERTAIN TO
WHAT EXTENT WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE...BUT THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW
YORK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-081000-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
452 AM EST MON JAN 7 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF LAKE
ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO...AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO GALE FORCE ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

APFFEL