Gale Warning 17, NWS Buffalo, NY

065 
WHUS71 KBUF 111632
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1132 AM EST MON NOV 11 2013

LOZ062>065-112300-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0017.131111T1700Z-131111T2300Z/
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
1132 AM EST MON NOV 11 2013

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO 35 KNOTS.

* WAVES...7 TO 10 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-120045-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0106.000000T0000Z-131112T1000Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
1132 AM EST MON NOV 11 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST TO 30 KNOTS.

* WAVES...7 TO 10 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-120045-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0106.000000T0000Z-131113T0700Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
1132 AM EST MON NOV 11 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST TO 30 KNOTS.

* WAVES...7 TO 10 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-120000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0108.000000T0000Z-131112T0000Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
1132 AM EST MON NOV 11 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042-120045-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0106.000000T0000Z-131112T2200Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
1132 AM EST MON NOV 11 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST TO 30 KNOTS.

* WAVES...5 TO 8 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

SLZ022-120045-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0108.131111T1800Z-131112T0100Z/
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
1132 AM EST MON NOV 11 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

SLZ024-120045-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0106.131111T1800Z-131112T0100Z/
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
1132 AM EST MON NOV 11 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

152 
WHUS71 KBUF 112031
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
331 PM EST MON NOV 11 2013

LOZ062>065-112300-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-131111T2300Z/
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
331 PM EST MON NOV 11 2013

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WINDS...WEST TO 40 KNOTS.

* WAVES...10 TO 13 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-120445-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0106.000000T0000Z-131112T1700Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
331 PM EST MON NOV 11 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST TO 30 KNOTS.

* WAVES...6 TO 9 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-120445-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0106.000000T0000Z-131113T1100Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
331 PM EST MON NOV 11 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST TO 30 KNOTS.

* WAVES...9 TO 12 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-120000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0108.000000T0000Z-131112T0000Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
331 PM EST MON NOV 11 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042-120445-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0106.000000T0000Z-131112T2200Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
331 PM EST MON NOV 11 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST TO 30 KNOTS.

* WAVES...7 TO 10 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

SLZ022-120100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0108.000000T0000Z-131112T0100Z/
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
331 PM EST MON NOV 11 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

SLZ024-120100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0106.000000T0000Z-131112T0100Z/
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
331 PM EST MON NOV 11 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

150 
WHUS71 KBUF 112230
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
530 PM EST MON NOV 11 2013

LOZ062>065-112330-
/O.CAN.KBUF.GL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-131111T2300Z/
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
530 PM EST MON NOV 11 2013

...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE GALE
WARNING. 

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

$$

LEZ040-041-120630-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0106.000000T0000Z-131112T1700Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
530 PM EST MON NOV 11 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...WEST TO 15 TO 30 KNOTS.

* WAVES...4 TO 9 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-120630-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0106.000000T0000Z-131113T1100Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
530 PM EST MON NOV 11 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 30 KNOTS.

* WAVES...6 TO 12 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-120000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0108.000000T0000Z-131112T0000Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
530 PM EST MON NOV 11 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042-120630-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0106.000000T0000Z-131112T2200Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
530 PM EST MON NOV 11 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 30 KNOTS.

* WAVES...5 TO 9 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

SLZ022-120100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0108.000000T0000Z-131112T0100Z/
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
530 PM EST MON NOV 11 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

SLZ024-120100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0106.000000T0000Z-131112T0100Z/
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
530 PM EST MON NOV 11 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
338 AM EST MON NOV 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WHILE RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
A SHARP DROP IN TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A SHORT
BURST OF SNOW AND POSSIBLE SOME ICY CONDITIONS ON BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES. OUR REGION WILL THEN EXPERIENCE A TWO DAY TASTE OF
WINTER WITH SOME NUISANCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND DECEMBER LIKE
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSING NORTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL QUICKLY LOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR WEATHER TODAY...AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND LOWER
MICHIGAN DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS...THEN WILL CHARGE ACROSS OUR
REGION LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AHEAD OF THIS DYNAMIC FEATURE DURING THE COURSE
OF THE DAY...WITH THE CLOUD COVER BEING LAKE ENHANCED EAST OF BOTH
LAKES. WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
IN THESE LAKE ENHANCED AREAS THIS MORNING...THE MAIN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PRE-FRONTAL
RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA AFTER 18Z...WITH THE MOST
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FORECAST TO BE FOUND ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT BETWEEN 22Z AND 02Z.

AS WAS EXCELLENTLY DESCRIBED IN A PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THIS FRONT
WILL TRANSITION TO AN INCREASINGLY ANABATIC BOUNDARY WITH THE MAIN
SYNOPTIC FORCING FOUND IN THE COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE. A BUFKIT TIME
HGT DISPLAY OF THE 00Z NAM DOES A NICE JOB OF DEPICTING THIS CHANGE.
IN ANY CASE...THE LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL GET A LITTLE HELP FROM THE
PASSING OF A 130KT H25 JET...WHICH IN TANDEM WILL PRODUCE A 4 HOUR
WINDOW OF FAIRLY STRONG LIFT DURING WHICH TIME THE RAIN WILL LIKELY
END AS A BURST OF SNOW. THIS COULD RESULT IN A COATING TO A HALF
INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS/LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH AS A
MUCH AS 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN ABOVE 1800 FT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S AT THE ONSET OF THE RAIN
SHOWERS...THEN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MERCURY READINGS WILL
QUICKLY DROP BELOW FREEZING. GIVEN THE WARM SFC CONDITIONS...THE WET
SNOW AT THE END OF THE SYNOPTIC PCPN SHOULD INITIALLY MELT ON AREA
ROADWAYS. AS TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT QUICKLY DROP
BELOW FREEZING THOUGH...THERE COULD BE A PERIOD WHEN SOME BLACK ICE
FORMS ON ELEVATED SURFACES...SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

THE WIDESPREAD MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT
WILL THEN QUICKLY COME TO AN END DURING THE EARLY EVENING...BUT AS
MUCH COLDER AIR (-12C @H85) PLOWS SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE REGION...
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
LAKES. THIS IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY AND RISING CAP WILL BE WASTED
THOUGH AS MUCH DRIER AIR ABV 5K FT WILL SEVERELY LIMIT LAKE DRIVEN
CONVECTION. THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN A SHORT FETCH
WITH ANY UPSTREAM CONNECTIONS BEING DIRECTED TOWARDS NORTHEAST OHIO.
THIS WILL LEAVE SHALLOW CONVECTION SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SRN TIER...WITH THE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS PROBABLY NOT
DEVELOPING UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT OR EVEN AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

ALONG WITH THE ONSET OF PCPN LATER TODAY...IT WILL BECOME WINDY. A
40-45KT LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PARTIALLY MIX TO
THE SFC AND LEAD TO MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
LAKE PLAINS (LOW 40S HILL TOPS)...WITH READINGS TUMBLING INTO THE
20S FOR ALL SITES TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY'S STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE COLDEST
AIRMASS OF THE SEASON TO DATE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS OUR AREA ON
TUESDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -11C/-12C. AT THE
SURFACE...THESE CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE INTO HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 30S...WITH A
MODERATELY BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WIND MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COLDER
WITH APPARENT TEMPERATURES NOT MAKING IT OUT OF THE MID 20S.

WHILE THIS AIRMASS WILL BE PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LAKE
RESPONSE...IT WILL ALSO BE EXTREMELY DRY. COUPLED WITH A SHORT
NORTHWESTERLY FETCH AND DIURNAL INFLUENCES...THE VERY DRY NATURE OF
THE AIRMASS WILL HELP KEEP ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SEVERELY
LIMITED IN SCOPE AND INTENSITY...WITH THESE GENERALLY WORTHY OF NO
MORE THAN SOME LOW CHANCE POPS. IN GENERAL...EXPECT MOST AREAS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES TO SEE SOME RATHER SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING...WITH THESE THEN TENDING TO MIGRATE
TO AREAS EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW BACKS A LITTLE MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BACK WITH
TIME AS THE LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
STATES SETTLES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND FLATTENS. AT
THE SAME TIME...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BRIEFLY INCREASE OVER OUR
REGION...LIKELY THE RESULT OF MOISTURE FROM THE UPSTREAM LAKES
GETTING SHUNTED EASTWARD BY THE INCREASINGLY WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF UPTICK IN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES...THOUGH AT THIS POINT THE
OVERALL DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY LOW 5-7 KFT INVERSION
HEIGHTS PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN A BUMP IN POPS TO THE MID CHANCE
RANGE. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...EXPECT JUST A FEW
STRAY FLURRIES WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OTHERWISE PREVAILING. LOW
TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE FAIRLY CHILLY...WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE
MID AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
ELSEWHERE.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WHILE THIS WILL RESULT IN OUR LOW-LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO
SHARPLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE
WEST...WITH DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT ALSO LEADING TO A
RAPIDLY LOWERING CAP AND GREATLY REDUCED LAKE-DRIVEN INSTABILITY. AS
A RESULT...ANY REMNANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ERIE
AND LAKE ONTARIO WILL WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY FALL APART ALTOGETHER AS
THEY LIFT NORTHWARD...WITH JUST A FEW DYING FLURRIES POSSIBLY
REACHING THE BUFFALO AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE WATERTOWN AREA
EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...WITH
THE DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN INDUCING A MODEST RECOVERY
IN TEMPS TO THE 35-40 DEGREE RANGE. THIS STATED...A BRISK WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL BE IN PLACE...WHICH WILL AGAIN MAKE IT FEEL
CHILLIER THAN IT ACTUALLY IS.

AFTER THIS...THE EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN US COAST THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD...WITH A
BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARMER AIR
DOMINATING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
FOR THE LAST 36 HOURS OF THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH CONTINUED WARMING
TEMPS. EXPECT 925 MB TEMPS OF ZERO TO +2C ALLOWING DAYTIME HIGHS TO
RECOVER BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BY
THURSDAY...WHILE NIGHTTIME LOWS WARM AN AVERAGE OF 3-5 DEGREES BOTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FROM FRIDAY ON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...PERSISTENT RIDGING ALONG AND
JUST OFFSHORE OF THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE ON FRIDAY WILL BRIEFLY
BUCKLE ON SATURDAY AS A MODEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST...BEFORE REBUILDING
AGAIN ON SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE
ROCKIES AND FAR WESTERN PLAINS.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES...DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH OUR AREA STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG
RIDGING. AFTER THIS...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...THOUGH A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER
OR TWO CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON SATURDAY GIVEN THE PASSAGE OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BY SUNDAY...INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY TO THE REBUILDING
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT GREATER AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER LAKES...LEADING TO A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO CLOSE OUT THE PERIOD.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE SOURCE OF
OUR AIRMASS REMAINING ROOTED IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES AND GULF
OF MEXICO. A GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS SUGGESTS 925 MB TEMPS OF +2C TO +5C
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WARMING TO +5C TO +8C SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD
TRANSLATE INTO HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BEFORE CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 50S ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...
NIGHTTIME LOWS SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY...THEN LOWERING CIGS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST SITES FOR THE AFTERNOON.

RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
AFTER 20Z WITH THE PCPN GRADUALLY BECOME MIXED WITH...THEN CHANGING
TO SNOW TOWARDS 00Z WHEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR WEATHER (LARGELY DUE
TO LOW VSBYS) WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS DURING
THE EARLY EVENING WILL THEN QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 03Z. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE AT KJHW AND KELZ WHERE MVFR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST.

ALONG WITH THE GRADUAL DETERIORATION TO MVFR WEATHER TODAY...WINDS
WILL ONCE AGAIN PICK UP WITH SFC GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 KTS DURING THE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BRIEFLY
NOSE NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND THIS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO TEMPORARILY SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THE LULL IN THE WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS AND WAVES WILL QUICKLY REBOUND TO SCA
LEVELS...THUS THE CURRENT ADVISORIES FOR ALL OF THE NEARSHORE
WATERS. WINDS ON THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO
30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE ANOTHER GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS ON THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL QUICKLY
VEER TO THE NORTHWEST. STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS
THE PLAINS WILL KEEP GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
         THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST THIS EVENING
         FOR LOZ062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM
         EST THIS EVENING FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
352 AM EST MON NOV 11 2013

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-120900-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
352 AM EST MON NOV 11 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-SLZ022-024-120900-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
352 AM EST MON NOV 11 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LOZ062>065-120900-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
352 AM EST MON NOV 11 2013

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

JJR