Gale Warning 11, NWS Buffalo, NY

986 
WHUS71 KBUF 011357
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
957 AM EDT MON APR 1 2013

LOZ043>045-063>065-012200-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0011.130401T1600Z-130402T0900Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
957 AM EDT MON APR 1 2013

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY...

* WINDS...WEST TO 35 KNOTS.

* WAVES...9 TO 12 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-012200-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0041.000000T0000Z-130402T2300Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
957 AM EDT MON APR 1 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...4 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042-012200-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0041.000000T0000Z-130402T2300Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
957 AM EDT MON APR 1 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...WEST TO 30 KNOTS.

* WAVES...6 TO 9 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

SLZ022-024-012200-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0041.000000T0000Z-130402T0200Z/
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
957 AM EDT MON APR 1 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-LOZ030-012200-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0041.000000T0000Z-130402T0200Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
957 AM EDT MON APR 1 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

819 
WHUS71 KBUF 011925
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
325 PM EDT MON APR 1 2013

LOZ043>045-063>065-020330-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-130402T0900Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
325 PM EDT MON APR 1 2013

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY...

* WINDS...WEST TO 35 KNOTS.

* WAVES...8 TO 11 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-020330-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0041.000000T0000Z-130403T2200Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
325 PM EDT MON APR 1 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042-020330-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0041.000000T0000Z-130403T2200Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
325 PM EDT MON APR 1 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...WEST TO 30 KNOTS.

* WAVES...6 TO 9 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

SLZ022-024-020200-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0041.000000T0000Z-130402T0200Z/
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
325 PM EDT MON APR 1 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-LOZ030-020200-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0041.000000T0000Z-130402T0200Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
325 PM EDT MON APR 1 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK/THOMAS

561 
WHUS71 KBUF 020155
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
955 PM EDT MON APR 1 2013

SLZ022-024-020300-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0041.000000T0000Z-130402T0200Z/
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
955 PM EDT MON APR 1 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...



$$

LEZ020-LOZ030-020300-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0041.000000T0000Z-130402T0200Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
955 PM EDT MON APR 1 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...


$$

LOZ043>045-063>065-020900-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-130402T0900Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
955 PM EDT MON APR 1 2013

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY...

* WINDS...WEST TO 30 KNOTS.

* WAVES...8 TO 11 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-021000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0041.000000T0000Z-130403T2200Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
955 PM EDT MON APR 1 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042-021000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0041.000000T0000Z-130403T2200Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
955 PM EDT MON APR 1 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...6 TO 9 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

937 
WHUS71 KBUF 020733
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
333 AM EDT TUE APR 2 2013

LOZ043>045-021545-
/O.CAN.KBUF.GL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-130402T0900Z/
/O.EXA.KBUF.SC.Y.0041.000000T0000Z-130403T2200Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
333 AM EDT TUE APR 2 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY. THE GALE
WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

* WINDS...WEST TO 30 KNOTS.

* WAVES...6 TO 9 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ063>065-020845-
/O.CAN.KBUF.GL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-130402T0900Z/
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
333 AM EDT TUE APR 2 2013

...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE GALE
WARNING. 

$$

LEZ040-041-021545-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0041.000000T0000Z-130403T2200Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
333 AM EDT TUE APR 2 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042-021545-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0041.000000T0000Z-130403T2200Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
333 AM EDT TUE APR 2 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...4 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
137 AM EDT MON APR 1 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND PRODUCE RAIN
SHOWERS AT TIMES. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RUSH BACK INTO THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES MORE TYPICAL
OF WINTER. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MINOR IN MOST AREAS...BUT
HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE FOUND EAST OF THE LAKES. DRIER
WEATHER WILL RETURN BY THURSDAY WITH SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF GEORGIAN
BAY WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ERIE
AND EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN OHIO INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA.

A PASSING SHORT WAVE IS PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS OVER WESTERN NEW
YORK AND THE GENESEE VALLEY...BUT THE STEADIER SHOWERS ARE STILL
OCCURRING EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE IS FOCUSING
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. THE STEADIER RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE
AND AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE MOVE TO THE EAST.

MEANWHILE...AREA RADARS SHOW RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING A BIT BETTER
ORGANIZED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THESE SHOWERS WILL
WORK EAST ACROSS THE CWA AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT INTERACTS WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS ALREADY IN
PLACE. ADDITIONAL LIFT WILL BE SUPPLIED BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WHICH WILL BE DIGGING EAST TOWARD THE LOWER LAKES. AS COLDER AIR
ADVECTS BEHIND THE FRONT...SOME OF THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW BEFORE DAYBREAK. EXPECT LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IN
MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF A LIGHT COATING ON SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ON MONDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW YET ANOTHER DRY SLOT TO WORK INTO THE
REGION WITH A FEW HOURS OF AT LEAST A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IN MOST
AREAS. LATER IN THE AFTERNOON DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
ARRIVE WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. ONCE THIS DEEPER SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE ARRIVES...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST
OF THE LAKES. EXPECT ANY AMOUNTS TO BE MINOR THROUGH EARLY EVENING
MONDAY...WITH AN INCH OR SO POSSIBLE ON THE TUG HILL OFF LAKE
ONTARIO AND LESS THAN THAT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER. THAT WILL CHANGE MONDAY NIGHT...SEE THE SHORT TERM
SECTION FOR DETAILS.

STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL COMPLETELY OFFSET DIURNAL
HEATING ON MONDAY...NO SMALL FEAT FOR EARLY APRIL. EXPECT STEADY OR
SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S IN MOST AREAS...WITH
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. IT
WILL ALSO BECOME QUITE WINDY...WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION SUPPORTING EFFICIENT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER
OF STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT. EXPECT GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE...
WITH SOME GUSTS OF A LITTLE OVER 40 MPH EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A LATE SEASON LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO. CHECK THE CALENDER...YES WE ARE TALKING LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN
APRIL WHICH DOES NOT HAPPEN ALL THAT OFTEN. IN FACT THIS WOULD BE
ONLY THE SECOND APRIL LAKE EFFECT EVENT SINCE OUR OFFICE BEGAN
KEEPING LAKE EFFECT RECORDS DATING BACK TO THE 1998-1999 WINTER
SEASON. THE ONLY OTHER APRIL EVENT OCCURRED FROM APRIL 4TH TO 8TH
2007 WHICH BROUGHT 3 FEET OF SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL AND
OVER 2 FEET OF SNOW ON THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.

THIS EVENT DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT AS THE 2007 EVENT BUT WE
ARE STILL EXPECTING SEVERAL INCHES PERHAPS 6 TO 12 OR MORE OF SNOW
EAST OF THE LAKES. CIPS ANALOGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE TOP 15
CLOSEST WEATHER EVENTS TO THE CURRENT 12Z NAM 48 HOUR FORECAST
AVERAGE SNOW AMOUNTS OF AROUND A FOOT OVER THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND
AROUND 6 INCHES ON THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. THE COMBINATION OF AN
EXTENDED DURATION OF WELL ALIGNED ARCTIC SOURCED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
FROM 270 TO 280 DEGREES CROSSING THE LAKES WILL DEVELOP WELL
ORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS EVEN THIS LATE IN THE SEASON.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...WE EXPECT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL EVENT DUE TO AN
EXPECTED LONG AXIS CROSSLAKE FETCH OF COLD 850 MB TEMPS OF -13C TO
-15C OVER A 3C/38F LAKE. HERE WE WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING
CRITICAL LAKE-850MB DELTA T'S. BUFKIT NAM PROFILES PEAK OUT LAKE
INSTABILITIES ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS
REACHING 13KFT AND LAKE INDUCED CAPES OF 500-600 J/KG. THERE ARE
ALSO STRONG NEGATIVE OMEGA FIELDS RISING RIGHT UP THROUGH THE PRIME
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH REGION. WE RAN A BACKWARDS TRAJECTORY HYSPLIT
MODEL FROM A POINT NEAR OSWEGO NY TO SEE WHERE THE SOURCE REGION IS
FOR THE AIRMASS ARRIVING MONDAY NIGHT AND MODEL RESULTS SHOWED AN
EXCELLENT UP-LAKE CONNECTION WITH SUPERIOR...MICHIGAN...HURON AND
ACROSS ONTARIO. WITH THIS KIND OF CONNECTION WE CAN EXPECT A WELL
ORGANIZED BAND ORIENTED SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE EXTENDING WELL INLAND
WITH SNOW RATES LIKELY EXCEEDING AN INCH AN HOUR THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

THE 12Z NAM MODEL SHOWS THE WELL ALIGNED WINDS REMAIN IN POSITION
THROUGH TUESDAY THEN ONLY SHIFT SOUTH A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE WEST. LAKE EFFECT SNOW CLIMATOLOGICALLY SAYS THAT LAKE
EFFECT TYPICALLY HAS A TOUGH TIME REMAINING ORGANIZED DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS THIS LATE IN THE SEASON AND THAT IS WHAT WE EXPECT TO
HAPPEN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LAKE EFFECT
PARAMETERS ARE NOT AS HIGH ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS WE EXPECT MONDAY
NIGHT...EL ~9KFT...DUE TO MODELS DRYING OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE A BIT
BUT STILL EXPECT SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION SOUTHEAST
OF THE LAKES. ANOTHER POINT TO NOTE IS THAT THE WINDS WILL VEER A
FEW DEGREES TO THE NORTH WHICH LOOKS TO SHIFT THE BAND TO THE SOUTH
TUESDAY NIGHT. BASED ON ALL THE ABOVE POINTS WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR NORTHERN CAYUGA...OSWEGO AND LEWIS
COUNTIES. IMPACTS FOR LEWIS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE COUNTY WITH FLOW NOT IDEAL FOR MUCH OF AN IMPACT ACROSS
JEFFERSON COUNTY SO WILL LEAVE THEM OUT. EXPECT LAKE SNOWS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN WAYNE COUNTY AS WELL BUT HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
HIGHER AMOUNTS HERE WITH THE 270-280 FLOW.

OFF LAKE ERIE...A NUMBER OF FACTORS WILL KEEP SNOWS HERE MUCH LOWER
IN AMOUNT AND INTENSITY THAN WE WE EXPECT FROM LAKE ONTARIO. A SHORTER
FETCH OF THE COLD AIR OVER THE EAST END OF THE LAKE WILL LIMIT THE
INTENSITY AND ORGANIZATION OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS HERE. ALSO THE
LAKE IS COOLER THAN LAKE ONTARIO...0C/32F WHICH YIELDS MUCH MORE
CONDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS. A BACKWARDS TRAJECTORY HYSPLIT
RUN FROM JAMESTOWN SHOWS THE AIR WILL CROSS MUCH SHORTER SECTIONS OF
LAKES SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THEN CROSSING THE STATE OF
MICHIGAN MISSING OUT ON A CONNECTION WITH LAKE HURON BEFORE CROSSING
LAKE ERIE FROM JUST WEST OF LONG POINT TO CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY. LAKE
SNOWS WILL BRING SEVERAL INCHES TO THE SOUTHERN TIER INLAND ACROSS
CATTARAUGUS AND POSSIBLY TO WESTERN ALLEGANY COUNTY. MOST OF
HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF ERIE AND WYOMING COUNTIES.
SIMILAR TO WHAT WE EXPECT FROM THE LAKE EFFECT OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
BE A WEAKENING/DISORGANIZATION OF LAKE EFFECT DUE TO DIURNAL EFFECTS
OF THE STRONG APRIL SUN ANGLE TUESDAY. THE DURATION WILL ALSO BE A BIT
SHORTER. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW THE BEST INSTABILITY TO BE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH WEAKER INSTABILITIES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVING WEDNESDAY SHOULD QUICKLY CUT OFF LAKE SNOWS HERE.
WILL NOT GO WITH A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER AT
THIS TIME. WHILE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS OF SEVERAL INCHES LOOK
POSSIBLE OUR CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER HERE ON REACHING WARNING
CRITERIA THRESHOLDS. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT...EXPECT CLOUDY...WINDY AND COLD WEATHER
WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF ARCTIC AIR OVER THE REGION.
EXPECT JUST SOME OCCASIONAL FLURRIES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN A
SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD BRING A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA ON TUESDAY WILL BE AS COLD OR COLDER THAN MONDAYS
NUMBERS SO DO NOT EXPECT MANY SITES TO BREAK ABOVE FREEZING. BY
WEDNESDAY WE SEE SOME WARMING ALOFT AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS TOWARDS
THE REGION. STILL COLD...10 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL...HIGH
HIGHS RANGING JUST ABOVE FREEZING ON THE LAKE PLAINS TO SUB-FREEZING
FOR THE TYPICALLY COLDER SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEMPERATURES FROM LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND STILL ON TRACK TO
REBOUND BACK TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN WITHIN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE CROSSING
WESTERN CANADA ON WEDNESDAY...THIS WILL DIG INTO THE TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND WORK TO SHOVE IT OFF THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. BEHIND THIS THE FLOW WILL BECOME GENERALLY ZONAL WHICH SEALS
OFF THE COLD AIR TO THE NORTH AND THE MUCH WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTH
YIELDING TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK CLEARING SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS FALLING BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT WE
COULD SEE SOME FROST FORMING ON GRASS AND CAR TOPS EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

CONTINUED WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND RAIN ON
FRIDAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW OUR AREA CENTERED BETWEEN A STORM
SYSTEM FORMING WELL TO OUR SOUTH WITH ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE PASSING
NORTH OF OUR REGION. FOR THE WEEKEND...SATURDAY AT THIS TIME LOOKS
TO BE DRY WHILE ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE NORTHEAST WHICH COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A 1-2 HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS...WHICH WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE
TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND WILL GUST TO NEAR 30 KNOTS LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANY SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH THE
SECONDARY COLD FRONT MONDAY WILL QUICKLY END...LEAVING BEHIND
MAINLY VFR CIGS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS...EXCEPT IFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...EXCEPT LOCAL
IFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE LOWER LAKES WILL RESULT IN
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS AT THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TEMPORARILY LATER
THIS EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE LATE TONIGHT
BEHIND A SHARP COLD FRONT.

MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLIES WILL THEN CONTINUE FROM MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH MIDWEEK. WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY APPROACH GALE FORCE ON THE
EAST HALF OF LAKE ONTARIO ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT FOR NOW WILL HOLD SUSTAINED WINDS AT 30
KNOTS. SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER LAKES THURSDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ005-006-008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
         EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM
         EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LOZ044-045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM
         EDT THIS EVENING FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/TJP
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/TJP/TMA
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/TJP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
338 PM EDT SUN MAR 31 2013

NYZ001>004-007-010>014-021-011945-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-JEFFERSON-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-
LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-ALLEGANY-
338 PM EDT SUN MAR 31 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ019-020-085-011945-
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
338 PM EDT SUN MAR 31 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE AT TIMES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE MOST WIDESPREAD LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE IN PERSISTENT BANDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ005-006-008-011945-
NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-LEWIS-
338 PM EDT SUN MAR 31 2013

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042-062-SLZ022-024-011945-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
338 PM EDT SUN MAR 31 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LOZ043>045-063>065-011945-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
338 PM EDT SUN MAR 31 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AND REMAIN STRONG THROUGH
MIDWEEK. WINDS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

HITCHCOCK