Alert archive / New York / Flood Watches in 2013

Flood Watch 5, NWS Buffalo, NY

December 19, 201316 counties in New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this flood watch at Dec 19, 2013, 12:49 PM EST for 16 counties in New York. It took effect at Dec 21, 2013, 4:00 PM EST. It was in force for 23 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Dec 19, 2013, 12:49 PM EST (17:49 UTC)
In effect from
Dec 21, 2013, 4:00 PM EST
Expired
Dec 22, 2013, 3:25 PM EST
In force
23 hr
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY
Flood severity
None

Counties Allegany County, NY, Cattaraugus County, NY, Cayuga County, NY, Chautauqua County, NY, Erie County, NY, Genesee County, NY, Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Livingston County, NY, Monroe County, NY, Niagara County, NY, Ontario County, NY, Orleans County, NY, Oswego County, NY, Wayne County, NY, Wyoming County, NY

The radar

The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 90 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:48 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 5.8 hours before the alert went out and 87 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2013-12-19Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2013-12-19The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 310 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1234 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
80 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
310 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
434 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS61 KBUF 191749
FFABUF

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1249 PM EST THU DEC 19 2013

...DRAMATIC WARM-UP AND HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND...

A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY
AND STALL OUT THIS WEEKEND. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVING ALONG THIS STALLED OUT FRONT WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK
THIS WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE EXPECTED TO RISE WELL ABOVE FREEZING ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ICE
JAMS AND DRAINAGE ISSUES RELATED TO SNOW-BLOCKED STORM DRAINS WILL
CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ALONG AREA STREAMS AS WELL AS IN
LOW-LYING POORLY DRAINED AREAS. 



NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-200200-
/O.NEW.KBUF.FA.A.0005.131221T2100Z-131223T0300Z/
/00000.0.IC.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-
LEWIS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1249 PM EST THU DEC 19 2013

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK... 
  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN CENTRAL NEW YORK... 
  JEFFERSON...LEWIS...NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO. IN WESTERN NEW 
  YORK...ALLEGANY...CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA...GENESEE... 
  LIVINGSTON...MONROE...NIAGARA...NORTHERN ERIE...ONTARIO... 
  ORLEANS...SOUTHERN ERIE...WAYNE AND WYOMING. 

* FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

* HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH SNOWMELT AND POTENTIAL ICE JAMS.

* LOCALIZED FLOODING OF AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS AS WELL AS LOW
  LYING AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

WOOD
12 follow-up statements
000 
WGUS61 KBUF 200112
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
812 PM EST THU DEC 19 2013

...DRAMATIC WARM-UP AND HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND...

A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY AND STALL OUT THIS WEEKEND. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS MOVING ALONG THIS STALLED OUT FRONT WILL RESULT IN
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF POTENTIALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND TEMPERATURES THAT ARE EXPECTED TO RISE WELL ABOVE
FREEZING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS.
SOME ICE IS ALSO IN PLACE IN THE CREEKS...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY
LEAD TO MINOR ICE JAMS.

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-201015-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0005.131221T2100Z-131223T0300Z/
/00000.0.IC.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-
LEWIS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
812 PM EST THU DEC 19 2013

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...JEFFERSON...LEWIS...
   NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO. IN WESTERN NEW YORK...ALLEGANY... 
  CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA...GENESEE...LIVINGSTON...MONROE... 
  NIAGARA...NORTHERN ERIE...ONTARIO...ORLEANS...SOUTHERN ERIE... 
  WAYNE AND WYOMING. 

* FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

* HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH SNOWMELT WILL RESULT IN EXCESSIVE RUNOFF
  AND SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS. SOME ICE ON THE
  BUFFALO AREA CREEKS MAY ALSO PRODUCE A RISK OF ICE JAMS.

* LOCALIZED FLOODING OF AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS AS WELL AS LOW 
  LYING AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK
000 
WGUS61 KBUF 200847
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
347 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2013

...HEAVY RAIN AND RAPID SNOW MELT ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND...

SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE STALLED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE REGION...WHICH WILL BRING AN INCH OR TWO OF RAIN TO MOST
LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE DRAMATICALLY ON THE
WARM SIDE OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY...WHILE REMAINING NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING NORTH OF THE FRONT. THE FLOOD RISK WILL BE GREATEST WHERE
WARMER TEMPERATURES RESULT IN SNOW MELT WHICH WILL RESULT IN EXCESSIVE
RUNOFF AND SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS. THE EXACT
POSITION OF THE FRONT WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN DETERMINING THE
WHERE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OCCURS. THERE IS ICE IN
PLACE ON SOME CREEKS...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO MINOR ICE
JAMS.

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-201700-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0005.131221T2100Z-131223T0300Z/
/00000.0.IC.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-
LEWIS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
347 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2013

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* WESTERN NEW YORK AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

* FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

* HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH SNOW MELT WILL RESULT IN EXCESSIVE RUNOFF 
  AND SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS. SOME ICE ON 
  THE BUFFALO AREA CREEKS MAY ALSO PRODUCE A RISK OF ICE JAMS. 

* LOCALIZED FLOODING OF AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS AS WELL AS LOW 
  LYING AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

APFFEL
000 
WGUS61 KBUF 201652
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1152 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2013

...HEAVY RAIN AND RAPID SNOW MELT ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND...

SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE RAIN FALLING ON A RIPENING SNOW PACK WILL
CAUSE RAPID SNOWMELT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND
THEREFORE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS. THE EXACT
POSITION OF THE FRONT WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN DETERMINING THE
WHERE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OCCURS. IN ADDITION...THERE IS
ICE IN PLACE ON SOME CREEKS...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO
MINOR ICE JAMS.

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-210100-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0005.131221T2100Z-131223T0300Z/
/00000.0.IC.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-
LEWIS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1152 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2013

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK.

* FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

* HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH SNOW MELT WILL RESULT IN EXCESSIVE 
  RUNOFF AND SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS. SOME 
  ICE ON THE BUFFALO AREA CREEKS MAY ALSO PRODUCE A RISK OF ICE 
  JAMS. 

* LOCALIZED FLOODING OF AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS AND POORLY
  DRAINED AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

ZAFF/APFFEL
000 
WGUS61 KBUF 202115
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
415 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2013

...HEAVY RAIN AND RAPID SNOW MELT ARE LIKELY THIS WEEKEND...

SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. THE RAIN FALLING ON A RIPENING SNOW PACK WILL CAUSE
RAPID SNOWMELT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND
THEREFORE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS. THE EXACT
POSITION OF THE FRONT WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN DETERMINING WHERE
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OCCURS. IN ADDITION...THERE IS ICE
IN PLACE ON SOME CREEKS...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO MINOR
ICE JAMS.

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-210515-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0005.131221T2100Z-131223T0300Z/
/00000.0.IC.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-
LEWIS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
415 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2013

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...JEFFERSON...LEWIS...
   NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO. IN WESTERN NEW YORK...ALLEGANY... 
  CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA...GENESEE...LIVINGSTON...MONROE... 
  NIAGARA...NORTHERN ERIE...ONTARIO...ORLEANS...SOUTHERN ERIE... 
  WAYNE AND WYOMING. 

* FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

* HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH SNOW MELT WILL RESULT IN EXCESSIVE 
  RUNOFF AND SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS. SOME 
  ICE ON THE BUFFALO AREA CREEKS MAY ALSO PRODUCE A RISK OF ICE 
  JAMS. 

* LOCALIZED FLOODING OF AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS AND POORLY 
  DRAINED AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK
856 
WGUS61 KBUF 210243
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
943 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2013

...HEAVY RAIN AND RAPID SNOW MELT ARE LIKELY THIS WEEKEND...

SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. THE RAIN FALLING ON A RIPENING SNOW PACK WILL CAUSE
RAPID SNOWMELT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND
THEREFORE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS. THE EXACT
POSITION OF THE FRONT WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN DETERMINING WHERE
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OCCURS. IN ADDITION...THERE IS ICE
IN PLACE ON SOME CREEKS...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO MINOR
ICE JAMS.

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-211045-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0005.131221T2100Z-131223T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-
LEWIS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
943 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2013

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...JEFFERSON...LEWIS...
   NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO. IN WESTERN NEW YORK...ALLEGANY... 
  CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA...GENESEE...LIVINGSTON...MONROE... 
  NIAGARA...NORTHERN ERIE...ONTARIO...ORLEANS...SOUTHERN ERIE... 
  WAYNE AND WYOMING. 

* FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

* HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH SNOW MELT WILL RESULT IN EXCESSIVE 
  RUNOFF AND SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS. SOME 
  ICE ON THE BUFFALO AREA CREEKS MAY ALSO PRODUCE A RISK OF ICE 
  JAMS. 

* LOCALIZED FLOODING OF AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS AND POORLY 
  DRAINED AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK/JJR
692 
WGUS61 KBUF 210842
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
342 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

...HEAVY RAIN AND RAPID SNOW MELT ARE LIKELY THIS WEEKEND...

SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED
TONIGHT. IN TOTAL...AROUND TWO INCHES OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. THE RAIN FALLING ON A RIPENING SNOW PACK WILL CAUSE
RAPID SNOW MELT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND
THEREFORE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS ICE IN PLACE ON SOME CREEKS...WHICH COULD
POTENTIALLY LEAD TO MINOR ICE JAMS.

THE EXACT POSITION OF THE FRONT WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN
DETERMINING WHERE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OCCURS. NORTH OF
THE FRONT...SOME PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO FALL AS FREEZING RAIN
WHICH WILL LIMIT RUNOFF. HOWEVER...SOUTH OF THE FRONT HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL SPEED UP
SNOW MELT AND RUNOFF. KEEP IN MIND...THE BASINS OF SOME RIVERS MAY
EXTEND ACROSS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SO IT IS POSSIBLE FOR RIVER
FLOODING TO OCCUR EVEN IN AREAS THAT GET SOME FROZEN PRECIPITATION. 

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-211645-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0005.131221T2100Z-131223T0300Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-
LEWIS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
342 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK. 

* FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

* HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH SNOW MELT WILL RESULT IN EXCESSIVE 
  RUNOFF AND SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS. SOME 
  ICE ON THE BUFFALO AREA CREEKS MAY ALSO PRODUCE A RISK OF ICE 
  JAMS. 

* IN ADDITION TO RIVER FLOODING...THERE IS ALSO A RISK OF
  FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND URBAN FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

APFFEL
026 
WGUS61 KBUF 211436
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
936 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

...HEAVY RAIN AND RAPID SNOW MELT ARE LIKELY THIS WEEKEND...

SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN
EXPECTED TONIGHT. IN TOTAL...2 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED.
THE RAIN FALLING ON A RIPENING SNOW PACK WILL CAUSE RAPID SNOW
MELT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND THEREFORE
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS. IN ADDITION...THERE
IS ICE IN PLACE ON SOME CREEKS...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO
MINOR ICE JAMS.

THE EXACT POSITION OF THE FRONT WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN
DETERMINING WHERE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OCCURS. NORTH OF
THE FRONT...SOME PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO FALL AS FREEZING RAIN
WHICH WILL LIMIT RUNOFF. HOWEVER...SOUTH OF THE FRONT HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL SPEED
UP SNOW MELT AND RUNOFF. KEEP IN MIND...THE BASINS OF SOME RIVERS
MAY EXTEND ACROSS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SO IT IS POSSIBLE FOR
RIVER FLOODING TO OCCUR EVEN IN AREAS THAT GET SOME FROZEN
PRECIPITATION.

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-212245-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0005.131221T2100Z-131223T0300Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-
LEWIS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
936 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE
  FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...JEFFERSON...LEWIS...
  NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO. IN WESTERN NEW YORK...ALLEGANY...
  CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA...GENESEE...LIVINGSTON...MONROE...
  NIAGARA...NORTHERN ERIE...ONTARIO...ORLEANS...SOUTHERN ERIE...
  WAYNE AND WYOMING.

* FROM 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

* HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH SNOW MELT WILL RESULT IN EXCESSIVE 
  RUNOFF AND SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS. SOME 
  ICE ON THE BUFFALO AREA CREEKS MAY ALSO PRODUCE A RISK OF ICE 
  JAMS. 

* IN ADDITION TO RIVER FLOODING...THERE IS ALSO A RISK OF FLOODING
  OF SMALL STREAMS AND FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK
747 
WGUS61 KBUF 212038
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
338 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

...HEAVY RAIN AND RAPID SNOW MELT ARE LIKELY THIS WEEKEND...

SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN
EXPECTED TONIGHT. IN TOTAL...2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED.
THE RAIN FALLING ON A RIPENING SNOW PACK WILL CAUSE RAPID SNOW
MELT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND THEREFORE
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS. FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY IN BOTH URBAN AND RURAL
AREAS.

THE EXACT POSITION OF THE FRONT WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN
DETERMINING WHERE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OCCURS. NORTH OF
THE FRONT...SOME PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO FALL AS FREEZING RAIN
WHICH WILL LIMIT RUNOFF. HOWEVER...SOUTH OF THE FRONT HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL SPEED
UP SNOW MELT AND RUNOFF. KEEP IN MIND...THE BASINS OF SOME RIVERS
MAY EXTEND ACROSS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SO IT IS POSSIBLE FOR
RIVER FLOODING TO OCCUR EVEN IN AREAS THAT GET SOME FROZEN
PRECIPITATION.

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-220445-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0005.131221T2100Z-131223T0300Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-
LEWIS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
338 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...JEFFERSON...LEWIS...
   NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO. IN WESTERN NEW YORK...ALLEGANY... 
  CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA...GENESEE...LIVINGSTON...MONROE... 
  NIAGARA...NORTHERN ERIE...ONTARIO...ORLEANS...SOUTHERN ERIE... 
  WAYNE AND WYOMING. 

* THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

* HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH SNOW MELT WILL RESULT IN EXCESSIVE RUNOFF
  AND SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS. MANY SMALL
  STREAMS AND CREEKS WILL LIKELY EXCEED THEIR BANKS.

* IN ADDITION TO RIVERS...FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY IN LOW LYING AND
  POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IN BOTH URBAN AND RURAL AREAS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK
243 
WGUS61 KBUF 220255
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
955 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

...HEAVY RAIN AND RAPID SNOW MELT ARE LIKELY THIS WEEKEND...

SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN
EXPECTED TONIGHT. IN TOTAL...2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED.
THE RAIN FALLING ON A RIPENING SNOW PACK WILL CAUSE RAPID SNOW
MELT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND THEREFORE
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS. FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY IN BOTH URBAN AND
RURAL AREAS.

THE EXACT POSITION OF THE FRONT WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN
DETERMINING WHERE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OCCURS. NORTH OF
THE FRONT...SOME PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO FALL AS FREEZING RAIN
WHICH WILL LIMIT RUNOFF. HOWEVER...SOUTH OF THE FRONT HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL SPEED
UP SNOW MELT AND RUNOFF. KEEP IN MIND...THE BASINS OF SOME RIVERS
MAY EXTEND ACROSS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SO IT IS POSSIBLE FOR
RIVER FLOODING TO OCCUR EVEN IN AREAS THAT GET SOME FROZEN
PRECIPITATION.

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-221100-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0005.000000T0000Z-131223T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-
LEWIS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
955 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...JEFFERSON...LEWIS...
   NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO. IN WESTERN NEW YORK...ALLEGANY... 
  CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA...GENESEE...LIVINGSTON...MONROE... 
  NIAGARA...NORTHERN ERIE...ONTARIO...ORLEANS...SOUTHERN ERIE... 
  WAYNE AND WYOMING. 

* THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

* HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH SNOW MELT WILL RESULT IN EXCESSIVE 
  RUNOFF AND SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS. MANY 
  SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS WILL LIKELY EXCEED THEIR BANKS. 

* IN ADDITION TO RIVERS...FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY IN LOW LYING 
  AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IN BOTH URBAN AND RURAL AREAS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK/JJR
617 
WGUS61 KBUF 220855
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
355 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

...HEAVY RAIN AND RAPID SNOW MELT ARE LIKELY THIS WEEKEND...

A FINAL PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CROSS FROM WESTERN NEW YORK THIS
EARLY MORNING...AND THROUGH THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION BY
MIDDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAIN...BUT IN MUCH LESS INTENSITY. THIS WILL BRING STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL TO 2 TO 3 INCHES. THE RAIN ALONG WITH SNOW MELT WILL
CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND THEREFORE
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS. FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY IN BOTH URBAN AND RURAL
AREAS.

SOUTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WHICH WILL SPEED UP SNOW
MELT AND RUNOFF. KEEP IN MIND...THE BASINS OF SOME RIVERS MAY
EXTEND ACROSS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SO IT IS POSSIBLE FOR RIVER
FLOODING TO OCCUR EVEN IN AREAS THAT REMAIN NEAR FREEZING THIS
EARLY MORNING.

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-221700-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0005.000000T0000Z-131223T0300Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-
LEWIS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
355 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...JEFFERSON...LEWIS...
   NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO. IN WESTERN NEW YORK...ALLEGANY... 
  CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA...GENESEE...LIVINGSTON...MONROE... 
  NIAGARA...NORTHERN ERIE...ONTARIO...ORLEANS...SOUTHERN ERIE... 
  WAYNE AND WYOMING. 

* THROUGH THIS EVENING.

* HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH SNOW MELT WILL RESULT IN EXCESSIVE RUNOFF
  AND SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS. MANY SMALL
  STREAMS AND CREEKS WILL EXCEED THEIR BANKS.

* IN ADDITION TO RIVERS...FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY IN LOW LYING 
  AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IN BOTH URBAN AND RURAL AREAS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

THOMAS
630 
WGUS61 KBUF 221552
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1052 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

...EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND SNOWMELT CONTINUES TODAY...

HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER EXCESSIVE RUNOFF
FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND COMBINED WITH ONGOING
SNOWMELT IN SOME AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IN BOTH URBAN AND RURAL AREAS. MANY
RIVERS AND SMALL STREAMS IN WESTERN NEW YORK ARE ALSO OUT OF
THEIR BANKS. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FOR MORE DETAILS.

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-230000-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0005.000000T0000Z-131223T0300Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-
LEWIS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1052 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE
  FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...JEFFERSON...LEWIS...
  NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO. IN WESTERN NEW YORK...ALLEGANY...
  CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA...GENESEE...LIVINGSTON...MONROE...
  NIAGARA...NORTHERN ERIE...ONTARIO...ORLEANS...SOUTHERN ERIE...
  WAYNE AND WYOMING.

* UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING.

* HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH SNOW MELT WILL RESULT IN EXCESSIVE 
  RUNOFF AND SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS. MANY 
  SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS WILL EXCEED THEIR BANKS. 

* IN ADDITION TO RIVERS...FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY IN LOW LYING 
  AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IN BOTH URBAN AND RURAL AREAS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK
161 
WGUS61 KBUF 222025
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
325 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013


NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-222130-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FA.A.0005.000000T0000Z-131223T0300Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-
LEWIS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
325 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK HAS
BEEN CANCELLED. 

RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ON SEVERAL RIVERS IN WESTERN NEW YORK.
REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS FOR DETAILS.

OUTSIDE OF THESE SPECIFIC RIVERS...THE GENERAL FLOODING OF SMALL
STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE FOLLOWING THE
HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

$$

HITCHCOCK

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flood watch went out at Dec 19, 9:28 AM EST, 3 hours 21 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 19, 9:28 AM EST, 3 hours 21 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
928 AM EST THU DEC 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION
TODAY...BEFORE AN APPROACHING FRONT BRINGS RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME
SNOW TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS THIS FRONT STALLS ACROSS OUR REGION
THIS WEEKEND...IT WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION AT
TIMES AND ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL BRING
WARMER AIR INTO OUR AREA TODAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS...MAKING TODAY THE
FIRST ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES MUCH OF THE REGION HAS SEEN IN
OVER A WEEK. SOME GUIDANCE (NAM/RGEM/SREF) FORECAST LIGHT QPF EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BUFKIT SUGGESTS THAT THIS LIFT
IS MAINLY DUE TO UPSLOPING. SUSPECT THAT SHALLOW LIFT AND LIMITED
SNOW GROWTH WILL PREVENT THIS FROM PRODUCING ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION.

FOR TONIGHT...THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ALOFT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN...AS
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO QUEBEC RESULT IN A FAVORABLE ZONE FOR FRONTOGENESIS. THIS WILL
SHARPEN A BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS AND JUST NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...WITH AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTING
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. WHILE THE BEST LIFT WILL BE TO OUR NORTH...THE
VAST MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE (NAM/GFS/RGEM/SREF) FORECAST SOME QPF
NORTH OF I-90. GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE LIFT...HAVE A HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...EVEN IF IT WILL ONLY BE LIGHT.
FAVORING THE FASTER GFS TIMING FOR THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
PRECIPITATION...EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...THEN EXPAND ACROSS AND EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT.

PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL VARY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE
ISOTHERMAL NEAR 0C NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SUGGESTING PRIMARILY SNOW
IN THE NORTH COUNTRY. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TO RESULT IN PRIMARILY RAIN...HOWEVER THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT...WITH NIL IN
MOST LOCATIONS...UP TO AROUND AN INCH IN NORTHERN JEFFERSON/LEWIS
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT DURING THE EVENING HOURS IN
LOWER TO MID 30S...AND THEN RISE SLIGHTLY TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN US TO START
THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A CONFLUENT FLOW OF THE TWO JET STREAMS. THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM WILL NOT BE AS AMPLIFIED AS IN
PRIOR WEEKS...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES PASSING ALONG...WHILE IN THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH THERE WILL BE A KEY FEATURE TO WATCH...ONE THAT WHEN
PHASED WITH A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH COULD BRING A
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL/MILDNESS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE FRIDAY A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WILL BE STRETCHED FROM
THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST...WITH SEVERAL WAVES FOUND ALONG IT. THIS BAROCLINIC
BOUNDARY WILL SEPARATE THE WARMTH OF THE SOUTHEAST FROM THE
COLDER...SUBFREEZING AIR OF THE NORTHERN STATES. WITH THE BOUNDARY
FORECASTED TO LIE ALONG OUR CWA...THIS WILL CREATE THE PROSPECTS OF
MIX PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

THE FIRST WAVE ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR CWA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION AS
RAINFALL FOR MOST OF THE REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY WHERE COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BRING SNOW. CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE NOSE OF A 50 KNOT LLJ AT 925 HPA...COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WILL BRING A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TO THE REGION FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TO LOW TO MID 40S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.

FRIDAY NIGHT THIS SURFACE WAVE WILL CROSS TO OUR NORTH AND BEHIND
THE LOW A SHALLOW COLDER WEDGE OF AIR WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD OVER LAKE
ONTARIO AND THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS SHALLOW WEDGE OF COLDER AIR WILL
LOWER SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE
TO FREEZING AND BELOW. A NORTHEAST WIND OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL
MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND
FREEZING INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND LIKELY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY. QPF
FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE SURFACE WAVE WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS MUCH AS
DURING THE DAY...AS BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE LLJ AND ITS ASSOCIATED LIFT
IS ADVANCING TO THE NORTHEAST.

SATURDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SAG SOUTHWARD...WITH A
LARGE SPREAD IN 850 HPA TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION...RANGING
FROM +4 TO +5 NEAR THE STATE LINE TO -5 ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
THE 0 DEGREE ISOTHERM AT 850 HPA WILL DROP TO ABOUT THE NYS THRUWAY
SATURDAY AND THIS WILL ROUGHLY SEPARATE THE MIXED PRECIPITATION TO
THE NORTH AND THE PLAIN RAIN TO THE SOUTH. WILL HAVE HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THUS HIGH LIKELY NEAR
THE STATE LINE AND SOUTHERN FINGER LAKES REGION...WHILE LOWERING TO
HIGH CHANCES OVER LAKE ONTARIO AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE CUTOFF LOW THAT STARTED THE TIME PERIOD OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...WILL PHASE WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IN THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM AND DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL
ADVANCE FROM NEAR ARKANSAS SATURDAY EVENING TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
SUNDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE LOW A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
AROUND A WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH WILL BRING GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD...WITH PWATS RISING TOWARDS +1.50 INCHES WHICH IS ABOUT
+4SD ABOVE NORMAL. AGAIN ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG WITH THE REGION
UNDER THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A +3SD 200 KNOT UPPER
LEVEL JET AT 250 HPA WILL PRODUCE SYNOPTIC LIFT GENERATING A PERIOD
OF RAIN. WITH THE HIGH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE DRAWN INTO THIS SYSTEM
THIS RAIN COULD BECOME SIGNIFICANT BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
WHEN COUPLED WITH RECENT SNOWS INCREASING THE WATER IN THE SNOWPACK.

RECENT RUNS OF THE METEOROLOGICAL MODEL ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECASTS
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE WATERSHEDS OF WESTERN NEW YORK AS POSSIBLE
LOCATIONS OF CONCERN OF RIVER FLOODING. WILL CONTINUE TO ELABORATE
ON THIS CONCERN IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY SATURDAY NIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE A
CONCERN MAINLY TOWARDS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. A NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE VALLEY WILL LIKELY KEEP A
SHALLOW WEDGE OF SUB FREEZING AIR THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.
WITH AIR ALOFT WARMING AS THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY BEGINS TO PUSH
NORTHWARD SNOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO WINTRY MIX/
PLAIN RAIN. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW FREEZING AN
ICE ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE
THOUSAND ISLAND AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO.

TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL AGAIN RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S ACROSS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO MID 40S NEAR THE STATE LINE. SATURDAY NIGHT
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO UPPER
30S NEAR THE STATE LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A TRICKY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY HIGHLIGHTING THE AREA
AROUND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AS TO WHEN THE CHANGE OVER FROM
FREEZING RAIN TO PLAIN RAIN WILL OCCUR. ELSEWHERE A SLUG OF RAINFALL
SUNDAY WILL BE ONGOING THAT WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE POTENTIAL
FLOODING ISSUES AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ALSO ARE TRICKY AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS WNY AND CNY. HIGHS SUNDAY MAY CLIMB TOWARDS
60F NEAR THE STATE LINE...WHILE AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTHERN
SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S.

THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO
QUEBEC AND A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING A SHARP
RETURN TO WINTER AS TEMPERATURES DROP BACK INTO THE 30S MONDAY WITH
20S BY TUESDAY. AS USUAL...EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP AS THIS COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
BRINGS AN END TO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY.

THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION CHRISTMAS EVE...AND START CHRISTMAS QUIET ACROSS THE REGION.
AS THIS HIGH SLIDES EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY APPROACHING LIGHT
SNOWFALL WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY HOLD
OFF UNTIL CHRISTMAS NIGHT FOR THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...AS WARMER AIR BUILDS IN ALOFT THROUGH
TODAY. 40 TO 50 KT WINDS AT 2-3K FEET WILL RESULT IN LLWS AT
JHW/ROC WHERE THESE WINDS ARE BOTH STRONGEST AND LEAST LIKELY TO
MIX TO THE SURFACE. A NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP
TOWARD 00Z TODAY...AND THEN EXPAND TO IMPACT BUF/IAG/ART DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL FALL AS RAIN SOUTH...SNOW
NORTH...WITH A MIX IN BETWEEN. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT.
OTHERWISE...AN INVERSION WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL
PROBABLY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. SOME FREEZING RAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY/SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. SOME FREEZING
RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY/SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE LOWER LAKES
TODAY...BUT IT NOW LOOKS AS IF THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST WAVES
WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE OPEN WATERS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE
EASTERN SHORES OF LAKE ERIE WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UTILIZING CURRENT NAEFS/GEFS GUIDANCE...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS QPF FOR
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND IS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 1.5
TO 2 INCHES OF LIQUID. CURRENT MMEFS GUIDANCE FOR EACH ENSEMBLE
INDICATES THAT THIS AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WOULD PLACE SEVERAL
WATERSHEDS AT AN ELEVATED RISK OF REACHING FLOOD STAGE...
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NIAGARA FRONTIER.

EVEN IF THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS VERIFY...THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF. IF
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 30S...THE DEEP SNOWPACK
WILL TEND TO ABSORB AT LEAST SOME OF THE RAINFALL AND KEEP RUNOFF
MANAGEABLE. ON THE OTHER HAND...IF TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
SURGE INTO THE 40S...THE SNOWPACK WILL LET LOOSE WITH STRONG
RUNOFF. THIS COMBINED WITH THE RAINFALL WILL BRING AN EVEN GREATER
RISK OF FLOODING.

WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE VERIFYING WITH THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES SEEN IN SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. IF
THIS OCCURS...FLOODING MAY BE SIGNIFICANT.

IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL RIVER FLOODING...THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
WILL BRING A RISK FOR MINOR LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AND
POORLY DRAINED AREAS...PARTICULARLY AS RECENT SNOWFALL HAS LIKELY
RESULTED IN THE BLOCKAGE OF MANY STORM DRAINS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.

&&

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/TJP
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...TJP
HYDROLOGY...WOOD/HITCHCOCK
Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 19, 5:29 AM EST, 7 hours 20 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
529 AM EST THU DEC 19 2013

NYZ010>014-019>021-085-201030-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
529 AM EST THU DEC 19 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF
THESE FEATURES...THEY MAY PRODUCE A SOAKING RAINFALL. SHOULD THIS
OCCUR...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. IN ADDITION...
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING MAY HOVER NEAR
THE FREEZING MARK...CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING
FREEZING RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ001>006-201030-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-
529 AM EST THU DEC 19 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF
THESE FEATURES...THEY MAY PRODUCE A SOAKING RAINFALL. SHOULD THIS
OCCUR...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. A GREATER THREAT
WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WHEN TEMPERATURES HOVERING
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
OF FREEZING RAIN OR POSSIBLY SOME SNOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ007-008-201030-
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
529 AM EST THU DEC 19 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF
THESE FEATURES...THEY MAY PRODUCE A SOAKING RAINFALL. SHOULD THIS
OCCUR...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. A GREATER THREAT
WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES HOVERING
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
OF FREEZING RAIN OR POSSIBLY SOME SNOW. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
DAMAGING ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE FOUND IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE
AND BLACK RIVER VALLEYS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-201030-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
529 AM EST THU DEC 19 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF LAKE
ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO...AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

THOMAS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 19, 12:54 PM ESTWinter Storm WatchBUFJefferson, Lewis15 hr

Nearby

Flood Watches in New York, 2013Every flood watch in 2013

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.