Alert archive / New York / Flood Watches in 2013

Flood Watch 4, NWS Buffalo, NY

June 26, 201316 counties in New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this flood watch at Jun 26, 2013, 4:13 PM EDT for 16 counties in New York. It took effect at Jun 27, 2013, 2:00 PM EDT. It was in force for 32 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jun 26, 2013, 4:13 PM EDT (20:13 UTC)
In effect from
Jun 27, 2013, 2:00 PM EDT
Expired
Jun 28, 2013, 10:22 PM EDT
In force
32 hr
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY
Flood severity
None

Counties Allegany County, NY, Cattaraugus County, NY, Cayuga County, NY, Chautauqua County, NY, Erie County, NY, Genesee County, NY, Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Livingston County, NY, Monroe County, NY, Niagara County, NY, Ontario County, NY, Orleans County, NY, Oswego County, NY, Wayne County, NY, Wyoming County, NY

The radar

The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 90 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:13 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 8.2 hours before the alert went out and 87 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2013-06-26Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 353 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2013-06-26The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 40 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
353 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-6 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
478 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
16 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
40 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
48 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

981 
WGUS61 KBUF 262013
FFABUF

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
413 PM EDT WED JUN 26 2013

...FLOODING POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM OHIO NORTH AND EASTWARD
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL SPREAD
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BRINGING
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN
FLOODING. RIVERS AND CREEKS MAY CONTINUE TO RISE SEVERAL HOURS
AFTER THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS ENDED.


NYZ001>005-010>014-019>021-085-270415-
/O.NEW.KBUF.FA.A.0004.130627T1800Z-130628T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE-
GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...
CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...
SPRINGVILLE
413 PM EDT WED JUN 26 2013

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK... 
  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN CENTRAL NEW YORK... 
  NORTHERN CAYUGA. IN WESTERN NEW YORK...ALLEGANY... 
  CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA...GENESEE...LIVINGSTON...MONROE... 
  NIAGARA...NORTHERN ERIE...ONTARIO...ORLEANS...SOUTHERN ERIE... 
  WAYNE AND WYOMING. 

* FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

* ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

* STEADY RAIN WILL CAUSE CREEKS AND RIVERS TO RISE THURSDAY AND
  THURSDAY EVENING...WITH SOME PONDING OF WATER ON
  ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY IN TYPICALLY VULNERABLE LOW-LYING AREAS.
  LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS...WHICH
  COULD RESULT IN STREAM AND SMALL CREEK FLOODING...AND MORE
  WIDESPREAD URBAN FLOODING ISSUES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

NYZ006>008-270415-
/O.NEW.KBUF.FA.A.0004.130628T0000Z-130629T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
413 PM EDT WED JUN 26 2013

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING COUNTIES...JEFFERSON...LEWIS AND OSWEGO. 

* FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

* ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

* STEADY RAIN WILL CAUSE CREEKS AND RIVERS TO RISE THURSDAY AND
  THURSDAY EVENING...WITH SOME PONDING OF WATER ON
  ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY IN TYPICALLY VULNERABLE LOW-LYING AREAS.
  LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS...WHICH
  COULD RESULT IN STREAM AND SMALL CREEK FLOODING...AND MORE
  WIDESPREAD URBAN FLOODING ISSUES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

THOMAS
9 follow-up statements
918 
WGUS61 KBUF 270227
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1027 PM EDT WED JUN 26 2013

...FLOODING POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM OHIO NORTH AND EASTWARD
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL SPREAD
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
BRINGING TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES. THERE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. RIVERS AND CREEKS
MAY CONTINUE TO RISE SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS
ENDED.

NYZ001>005-010>014-019>021-085-271030-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0004.130627T1800Z-130628T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE-
GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...
CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...
SPRINGVILLE
1027 PM EDT WED JUN 26 2013

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...NORTHERN CAYUGA. IN 
  WESTERN NEW YORK...ALLEGANY...CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA... 
  GENESEE...LIVINGSTON...MONROE...NIAGARA...NORTHERN ERIE... 
  ONTARIO...ORLEANS...SOUTHERN ERIE...WAYNE AND WYOMING. 

* FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON

* ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS 
  POSSIBLE. 

* RAIN WILL CAUSE CREEKS AND RIVERS TO RISE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
  EVENING...WITH SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY
  IN TYPICALLY VULNERABLE LOW-LYING AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS
  ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN STREAM
  AND SMALL CREEK FLOODING...AND MORE WIDESPREAD URBAN FLOODING
  ISSUES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

NYZ006>008-271030-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0004.130628T0000Z-130629T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
1027 PM EDT WED JUN 26 2013

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTIES...JEFFERSON...LEWIS AND OSWEGO. 

* FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING

* ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS 
  POSSIBLE. 

* RAIN WILL CAUSE CREEKS AND RIVERS TO RISE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
  EVENING...WITH SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY
  IN TYPICALLY VULNERABLE LOW-LYING AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS
  ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN STREAM
  AND SMALL CREEK FLOODING...AND MORE WIDESPREAD URBAN FLOODING
  ISSUES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
802 
WGUS61 KBUF 270805
FFABUF

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
405 AM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

...FLOODING POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM OHIO AND INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND THEN LIFT INTO EASTERN NEW YORK. AREAS OF HEAVY
RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK
TODAY AND TONIGHT... BRINGING TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF BETWEEN 1
AND 2 INCHES. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. RIVERS AND CREEKS MAY CONTINUE TO RISE SEVERAL
HOURS AFTER THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS ENDED.

NYZ006>008-271615-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FA.A.0004.130627T1800Z-130629T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
405 AM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

THE FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* A PORTION OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTIES...JEFFERSON...LEWIS AND OSWEGO. 

* FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING

* ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS 
  POSSIBLE. 

* SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS
  AFTERNOON. AFTER THIS...STEADIER RAINS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND
  LAST INTO FRIDAY. HEAVY RAINS WILL CAUSE SOME PONDING OF WATER
  ON ROADWAYS... ESPECIALLY IN TYPICALLY VULNERABLE LOW- LYING
  AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD RESULT
  IN STREAM AND SMALL CREEK FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

NYZ001>005-010>014-019>021-085-271615-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0004.130627T1800Z-130628T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE-
GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...
CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...
SPRINGVILLE
405 AM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...NORTHERN CAYUGA. IN 
  WESTERN NEW YORK...ALLEGANY...CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA... 
  GENESEE...LIVINGSTON...MONROE...NIAGARA...NORTHERN ERIE... 
  ONTARIO...ORLEANS...SOUTHERN ERIE...WAYNE AND WYOMING. 

* FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON

* ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS 
  POSSIBLE. 

* RAIN WILL CAUSE CREEKS AND RIVERS TO RISE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
  EXPECT SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS... ESPECIALLY IN
  TYPICALLY VULNERABLE LOW-LYING AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS
  ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN STREAM
  AND SMALL CREEK FLOODING...AND MORE WIDESPREAD URBAN FLOODING
  ISSUES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

APFFEL
578 
WGUS61 KBUF 271458
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1058 AM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

...FLOODING POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM OHIO THIS LATE
MORNING INTO PENNSYLVANIA AND THEN LIFT INTO EASTERN NEW YORK ON
FRIDAY. AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY AND TONIGHT... BRINGING TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. RIVERS AND CREEKS MAY CONTINUE TO
RISE SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS ENDED.

NYZ001>005-010>014-019>021-085-272300-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0004.130627T1800Z-130628T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE-
GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...
CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...
SPRINGVILLE
1058 AM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...NORTHERN CAYUGA. IN 
  WESTERN NEW YORK...ALLEGANY...CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA... 
  GENESEE...LIVINGSTON...MONROE...NIAGARA...NORTHERN ERIE... 
  ONTARIO...ORLEANS...SOUTHERN ERIE...WAYNE AND WYOMING. 

* FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

* ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS 
  POSSIBLE. 

* RAIN WILL CAUSE CREEKS AND RIVERS TO RISE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. 
  EXPECT SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS... ESPECIALLY IN 
  TYPICALLY VULNERABLE LOW-LYING AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS 
  ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN STREAM 
  AND SMALL CREEK FLOODING...AND MORE WIDESPREAD URBAN FLOODING 
  ISSUES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

NYZ006>008-272300-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0004.130627T1800Z-130629T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
1058 AM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTIES...JEFFERSON...LEWIS AND OSWEGO. 

* FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

* ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS 
  POSSIBLE. 

* SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS 
  AFTERNOON. AFTER THIS...STEADIER RAINS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT 
  AND LAST INTO FRIDAY. HEAVY RAINS WILL CAUSE SOME PONDING OF 
  WATER ON ROADWAYS... ESPECIALLY IN TYPICALLY VULNERABLE LOW- 
  LYING AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH 
  COULD RESULT IN STREAM AND SMALL CREEK FLOODING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

THOMAS
464 
WGUS61 KBUF 272248
FFABUF

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
648 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

...SPOTTY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM SOUTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK LATER
TONIGHT BEFORE REACHING SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY FRIDAY EVENING. AN
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW
MOVING...AND MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED AREAS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOODING. IT NOW APPEARS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE SPOTTY IN NATURE ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS...AND
MOST LIKELY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING.

NYZ001>005-010>014-019>021-085-280700-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FA.A.0004.000000T0000Z-130629T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE-
GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...
CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...
SPRINGVILLE
648 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

THE FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...NORTHERN CAYUGA. IN 
  WESTERN NEW YORK...ALLEGANY...CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA... 
  GENESEE...LIVINGSTON...MONROE...NIAGARA...NORTHERN ERIE... 
  ONTARIO...ORLEANS...SOUTHERN ERIE...WAYNE AND WYOMING. 

* THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING

* VERY SLOW MOVING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED
  HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IN A FEW LOCATIONS THIS EVENING
  AND AGAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING.

* SPOTTY AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING
  AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL AS SMALL CREEKS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

NYZ006>008-280700-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0004.000000T0000Z-130629T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
648 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTIES...JEFFERSON...LEWIS AND OSWEGO. 

* THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING

* LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN SLOW MOVING
  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER AREA OF
  RAINFALL.

* SPOTTY AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING
  AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL AS SMALL CREEKS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK
499 
WGUS61 KBUF 280339
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1139 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

...SPOTTY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK LATER TONIGHT
BEFORE REACHING SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY FRIDAY EVENING. AN ASSOCIATED
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING...
AND MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED AREAS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING. IT NOW APPEARS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE SPOTTY IN NATURE ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS...AND
MOST LIKELY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING.

NYZ001>005-010>014-019>021-085-281145-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0004.000000T0000Z-130629T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE-
GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...
CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...
SPRINGVILLE
1139 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...NORTHERN CAYUGA. IN 
  WESTERN NEW YORK...ALLEGANY...CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA... 
  GENESEE...LIVINGSTON...MONROE...NIAGARA...NORTHERN ERIE... 
  ONTARIO...ORLEANS...SOUTHERN ERIE...WAYNE AND WYOMING. 

* THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING

* VERY SLOW MOVING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE 
  LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IN A FEW LOCATIONS 
  TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. 

* SPOTTY AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING 
  AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL AS SMALL CREEKS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

NYZ006>008-281145-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0004.000000T0000Z-130629T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
1139 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTIES...JEFFERSON...LEWIS AND OSWEGO. 

* THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING

* LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN SLOW 
  MOVING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER AREA 
  OF RAINFALL. 

* SPOTTY AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING 
  AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL AS SMALL CREEKS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK
447 
WGUS61 KBUF 280829
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
429 AM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

...SPOTTY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS EASTERN NEW
YORK TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SLOW MOVING... AND MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED AREAS OF VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING. IT NOW APPEARS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE SPOTTY IN NATURE ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW MOVING
STORMS.

NYZ001>005-010>014-019>021-085-281630-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0004.000000T0000Z-130629T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE-
GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...
CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...
SPRINGVILLE
429 AM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...NORTHERN CAYUGA. IN 
  WESTERN NEW YORK...ALLEGANY...CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA... 
  GENESEE...LIVINGSTON...MONROE...NIAGARA...NORTHERN ERIE... 
  ONTARIO...ORLEANS...SOUTHERN ERIE...WAYNE AND WYOMING. 

* THROUGH THIS EVENING

* VERY SLOW MOVING SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
  MORNING...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
  RAINFALL. SLOW MOVING STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE 1 TO
  3 INCHES OF RAIN IN SOME LOCATIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

* SPOTTY AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING 
  AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL AS SMALL CREEKS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

NYZ006>008-281630-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0004.000000T0000Z-130629T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
429 AM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY EVENING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...INCLUDING JEFFERSON...LEWIS AND
  OSWEGO COUNTIES.

* THROUGH THIS EVENING

* STEADY RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE
  MORNING...BRINGING AROUND AN INCH OF RAINFALL. LOCALLY HIGHER
  AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN LEWIS COUNTY.

* SPOTTY AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING 
  AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL AS SMALL CREEKS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

APFFEL
282 
WGUS61 KBUF 281627
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1227 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

...SPOTTY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TODAY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW
MOVING... AND MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED AREAS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOODING. IT NOW APPEARS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE SPOTTY IN NATURE ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS. 

TOWARDS THE EAST A DEPARTING SURFACE LOW HAS NEARLY ENDED THE
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EARLY AFTERNOON. SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS COULD STILL RISE...SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE
HEAVIEST RAIN HAS ENDED.

NYZ001>005-010>014-019>021-085-290030-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0004.000000T0000Z-130629T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE-
GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...
CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...
SPRINGVILLE
1227 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...NORTHERN CAYUGA. IN 
  WESTERN NEW YORK...ALLEGANY...CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA... 
  GENESEE...LIVINGSTON...MONROE...NIAGARA...NORTHERN ERIE... 
  ONTARIO...ORLEANS...SOUTHERN ERIE...WAYNE AND WYOMING. 

* UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING.

* VERY SLOW MOVING SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK
  ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL
  PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. SLOW MOVING STORMS HAVE THE
  POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN SOME LOCATIONS
  THROUGH THIS EVENING.

* SPOTTY AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING 
  AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL AS SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

NYZ006>008-290000-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0004.000000T0000Z-130629T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
1227 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTIES...JEFFERSON...LEWIS AND OSWEGO. 

* UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING.

* WHILE THE HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EARLY
  AFTERNOON HAS NEARLY ENDED...THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW SPOT
  SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS
  MAY STILL RISE...SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS
  ENDED.

* RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND
  POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL AS SMALL CREEKS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

THOMAS
194 
WGUS61 KBUF 282259
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
659 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

...SPOTTY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SLOW MOVING...AND MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED AREAS OF VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE SPOTTY IN NATURE ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS.


NYZ006>008-290000-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FA.A.0004.000000T0000Z-130629T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
659 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF CENTRAL NEW YORK HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. HEAVY RAIN WHICH MOVED THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION EARLIER TODAY HAS ENDED. 

$$

NYZ004-005-014-019>021-290000-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FA.A.0004.000000T0000Z-130629T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...CANANDAIGUA...
JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE
659 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK HAS
BEEN CANCELLED. THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THE RISK FOR
FLOODING IS NOW GREATLY DIMINISHED...THEREFORE THE FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

NYZ001>003-010>013-085-290300-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0004.000000T0000Z-130629T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-
SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
659 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTIES...GENESEE...LIVINGSTON...MONROE...NIAGARA...NORTHERN 
  ERIE...ORLEANS...SOUTHERN ERIE AND WYOMING. 

* UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING

* VERY SLOW MOVING SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK
  ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL
  PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. SLOW MOVING STORMS HAVE THE
  POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN SOME LOCATIONS
  THROUGH THIS EVENING.

* SPOTTY AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING 
  AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL AS SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK/JJR
401 
WGUS61 KBUF 290222
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1022 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

NYZ001>003-010>013-085-290330-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FA.A.0004.000000T0000Z-130629T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-
SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1022 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. THE HEAVY RAINS FROM EARLIER TODAY HAVE ENDED THEREBY
ENDING THE RISK FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING...THEREFORE THE FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

JJR

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flood watch went out at Jun 26, 1:50 PM EDT, 2 hours 23 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 26, 1:50 PM EDT, 2 hours 23 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
150 PM EDT WED JUN 26 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
AFTER THAT...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING PERIODS OF STEADY RAIN TO OUR AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST REGIONAL RADARS DISPLAY A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION THIS MORNING...MAINLY OVER LEWIS COUNTY.
THIS ACTIVITY DUE TO A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHOULD END THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE CARRIES EASTWARD.
DRIER AIR WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY...AS EVIDENT
BY THE CLEARING NOW SEEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN NIAGARA FRONTIER. WITH
THE CLEARING LAKE BREEZES WILL BEGIN TO FORM...AND WITH A STILL
MOIST AIRMASS WILL HOLD JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES.

OTHERWISE WITH THE INCREASE IN AFTER SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WITH SLIGHTER COOLER READINGS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND CLOSE TO THE LAKES.

WEAK RIDGING WILL PROVIDE US WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING.
AFTER THAT...THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL BE HEADING EAST TOWARD THE LOWER LAKES LATE TONIGHT. THE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO MOST OF THE AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
DURING THIS PERIOD AS A TRAIN OF SHORTWAVES DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL CARVE OUT A SPRINGLIKE CUT OFF LOW OVER
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG H5 RIDGE TO
THE TUNE OF +3 STD HGTS WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN STATES. AS ONE
WOULD EXPECT...THIS POSITIVE PNA PATTERN WILL LEAD TO SOMEWHAT
COOLER CONDITIONS FOR OUR REGION...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY JUST WORK OUT
TO READINGS THAT WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL.

THE LOWER TEMPERATURES MAY COME AT A PRICE THOUGH...AS THE MAIN
CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOAKING RAINS
ON THURSDAY. SOME GUIDANCE PACKAGES ARE SUGGESTING THAT A ONE TO TWO
INCH RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR OUR REGION. WHILE THAT WOULD LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA TRIBUTARIES AND POSSIBLY CAUSE SOME
LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD ISSUES...WE ARE IN MUCH BETTER SHAPE
TO HANDLE SUCH AN EVENT THAN WE WERE A COUPLE WEEKS AGO. THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE REGION HAS HAD TIME TO DRY OUT A LITTLE FROM THE
SOAKING RAINS FROM EARLIER IN THE MONTH. THUS...WHILE ISOLATED
CONVECTION HAS PRODUCED SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THE PAST FEW
DAYS...ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE SUCH THAT WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
HANDLE A SYNOPTIC RAIN OF AN INCH TO INCH AND A HALF WITHOUT TOO
MUCH TROUBLE. AREA TRIBUTARIES...WHILE STILL RUNNING A FOOT OR SO
ABOVE NORMAL...ARE AVERAGING UNDER A QUARTER BANKFUL WITH RFC
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT OUR REGION CAN HANDLE ABOUT 2 INCHES OF
RAIN IN 3 HOURS OR 2.5 TO 3 IN 6 HOURS BEFORE WE HAVE ANY REAL
ISSUES. REGARDLESS...WE WILL STILL POINT OUT THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO) PRODUCT FOR THAT
LOW PROBABILITY RISK OF HEAVIER RAIN.

NOW LETS LOOK AT THE DETAILS OF THE METEOROLOGY.
AN INNOCUOUS LOOKING SHORTWAVE OVER IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE EAST TO LAKE ERIE BY THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE A
WEAKLY DEFINED ATTENDENT SFC LOW WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER OHIO.
UNFORTUNATELY...IT IS AT THIS POINT THAT THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE
PACKAGES FALL OUT OF LINE WITH EACH OTHER ON HOW THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSES. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE VERY SIMILAR IN TRACKING THE
DEVELOPING SFC LOW ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER WHILE THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION NAM AND RGEM FAVOR A TRACK THAT WOULD BE 50-75 MILES
FURTHER SOUTH. THESE DIFFERENCES HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR
SEVERAL MODEL RUNS NOW...SO WE HAVE YET TO SEE A CONVERGENT
SOLUTION. IN SHORT...THE NORTHERN TRACK WOULD RESULT IN A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL OVER OUR REGION. WILL HEDGE IN THIS
DIRECTION...LARGELY BECAUSE OF THE BETTER PERFORMANCE OF THE ECMWF
AND GFS OVER THE NAM...THEN WILL BLEND WITH CONTINUITY.

THAT BEING SAID...THE EASY PART OF THIS FORECAST WILL BE RAISING
POPS TO 100 FOR THURSDAY AS THE EXCEEDINGLY MOIST SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY
TRACK EAST ALONG THE NEW YORK/PA BORDER. PWAT VALUES WILL RANGE FROM
1.75 TO 2 INCHES...AND AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST DURING THE COURSE OF
THE DAY...STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT/SIGNIFICANT FRONTOGENTIC FORCING IS
FORECAST (700-400MB) TO DEVELOP ON THE NORTH/NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
STORM. THIS DEEP LIFT...SHOULD IT MATERIALIZE...WOULD RESULT IN
PROLONGED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FROM MIDDAY THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE HIGH PWAT VALUES...EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCTION COULD RESULT IN QPF IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. AS ELUDED TO
IN A PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH...OUR REGION SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE 2
INCHES OF RAIN IN 8-12 HOURS WITHOUT TOO MUCH OF AN ISSUE...BUT
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD LEAD TO SOME GENERAL FLOODING. WITH
THIS IN MIND...OUR QPF FORECAST FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD FROM 12Z
THURSDAY TO 12Z FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM AN INCH AND A HALF OVER
THE WESTERN COUNTIES TO A LITTLE OVER TWO INCHES OVER THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO COUNTIES AND PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION.
THESE NUMBERS COME FROM A BLEND FROM OUR CONTINUITY AND NEW HPC
GUIDANCE. STAY TUNED.

THE STEADIEST/HEAVIEST RAIN WILL MOVE FROM THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION TO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE
DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO THE ADIRONDACKS. MEANWHILE...
LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE SHOULD BE FOUND OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES.

ON FRIDAY...A BROAD BASED CLOSED H5 LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER LAKE
ONTARIO WHILE THE MAIN SFC LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED STRONG DYNAMICS
WILL BE LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST QUEBEC. WHILE THERE WILL BE A
GENERAL LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING BACK ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
UNDER THE CLOSED LOW...THERE WILL STILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
IN PLACE AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY (MUCAPES ~500 J/KG) TO SUPPORT SOME
GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

THE LOSS OF DIURNALLY INDUCED INSTABILITY FRIDAY NIGHT COMBINED WITH
THE EXITING OF THE PARENT CLOSED H5 SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO LESS
SHOWER ACTIVITY. LEFTOVER SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BY
MIDNIGHT OR SO WITH JUST MAINLY LOW CLOUDS ANTICIPATED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AN ELONGATED FULL LATITUDE TROUGH
WILL EXTEND FROM QUEBEC AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP GENERAL UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED NUISANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THIS TIME PERIOD SHOULD BE RAINFREE. WILL BROAD
BRUSH WITH CHC POPS.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S DURING THIS PERIOD WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THESE VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE PACKAGES ARE IN STRONG
AGREEMENT THAT A HIGH LATITUDE +PNA PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS PERIOD AS AN ELONGATED H5 TROUGH WILL
STRETCH FROM QUEBEC AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK...A TEMPORARY BLOCKING PATTERN WILL DEVELOP AS A RESULT OF A
LARGE CUTOFF FORMING IN THE VCNTY OF MISSOURI. THIS CUTOFF WILL BE
SHORT LIVED THOUGH...WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT THE LOW WILL OPEN
UP LATE IN THE WEEK WHILE RIDGING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL
RETROGRADE BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.

THIS SCENARIO WILL TRANSLATE INTO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...THEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF ABV NORMAL READINGS
WITH THE THINKING THAT THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.

WHILE THE BULK OF THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE RAINFREE...TROUGHINESS NEAR
OUR REGION WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED DIURNALLY BASED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 18Z SOME LOW CLOUDS STILL LINGERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH
MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. DRIER AIR OVER LAKE ERIE AND THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER...ADVECTING IN BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE SHOULD ERODE
THESE LOWER CIGS THIS AFTERNOON...SUCH THAT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
ARE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO THIN THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ON THE MUGGY SIDE AND WITH THE LIGHT WINDS SOME PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE. WILL INDICATE THIS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...WITH THE FOG
THINNING SOME IN THE MORNING...BUT LOWER CIGS QUICKLY FOLLOWING
AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE...AND SUCH WIND DIRECTION FOR TOMORROW. THE CONSENSUS IS TO
TAKE THE LOW NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE STATE OF OHIO AND ACROSS
CNY...WHERE TO A LESS CONFIDENT TRACK...TO TAKE THE LOW FROM OHIO
AND ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA. NONE THE LESS...A SHIELD OF RAIN SHOWERS
WILL ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WNY TOMORROW MORNING. DEPENDING
UPON THE TRACK...THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK WILL LIKELY BRING
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND RAIN NORTHWARD...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
HEAVY WITH REDUCED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CAUSE CIGS/VBSYS TO LOWER TO IFR/MVFR AT TIMES.
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE DOWN...MAINLY 2 FEET AND UNDER THROUGH
THE DAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE EASTERN LAKES.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS NEW YORK STATE WILL CAUSE NORTHERLY
WINDS TO PICK UP THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH
SCA CRITERIA ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORES OF THE LAKE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS/TJP
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/TJP
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS/TJP
Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 26, 5:28 AM EDT, 10 hours 45 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
528 AM EDT WED JUN 26 2013

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-270930-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
528 AM EDT WED JUN 26 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF
THE PENNSYLVANIA BORDER ON THURSDAY...SPREADING A STEADY SOAKING
RAIN ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS STORM TRACK...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
SIGNIFICANT RAINS WILL BE OVER THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGIONS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES WITHIN A 12 HOUR WINDOW
WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA TRIBUTARIES...BUT SHOULD
NOT RESULT IN ANYTHING MORE THAN LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
AND SOME LOWLAND (IE. AGRICULTURAL) FLOODING. RAINFALL IN EXCESS
OF TWO INCHES WOULD LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERNS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-270930-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
528 AM EDT WED JUN 26 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

RSH

The office that day

Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 25, 8:41 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementBUFJefferson34 min

Nearby

Flood Watches in New York, 2013Every flood watch in 2013

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.