Flood Watch 1, NWS Buffalo, NY

193 
WGUS61 KBUF 301534
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1034 AM EST WED JAN 30 2013

NYZ019>021-302345-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-130131T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE
1034 AM EST WED JAN 30 2013

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTIES...ALLEGANY...CATTARAUGUS AND CHAUTAUQUA. 

* THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING

* A WARM AND EXTREMELY MOIST AIRMASS IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO
  CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A
  STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
  A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK
  ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT... EXPECT
  WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO BRING ABUNDANT
  RAINFALL TO THE REGION...WITH AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES
  POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL...COMBINED
  WITH SOILS ALREADY SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINS AND SNOWMELT...
  WILL CREATE AN ELEVATED RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING...PARTICULARLY
  ACROSS THE STEEPER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.

* THIS RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN RAPID RISES OF LOCAL STREAMS 
  RESULTING IN LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POORLY 
  DRAINED AREAS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

NYZ004>008-013-014-302345-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.130130T1800Z-130131T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...
WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA
1034 AM EST WED JAN 30 2013

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...JEFFERSON...LEWIS...
   NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO. IN WESTERN NEW YORK...
  LIVINGSTON... ONTARIO AND WAYNE. 

* THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING

* A WARM AND EXTREMELY MOIST AIRMASS IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO
  CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A
  STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
  A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK
  ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...EXPECT
  WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO BRING ABUNDANT
  RAINFALL TO THE REGION...WITH AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES
  POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL...COMBINED
  WITH SOILS ALREADY SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINS AND SNOWMELT...
  WILL CREATE AN ELEVATED RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING...PARTICULARLY
  ACROSS THE STEEPER TERRAIN OF THE FINGER LAKES AND TUG HILL
  PLATEAU REGIONS.

* THIS RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN RAPID RISES OF LOCAL STREAMS 
  RESULTING IN LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POORLY 
  DRAINED AREAS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

938 
WGUS61 KBUF 302037
FFABUF

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
337 PM EST WED JAN 30 2013

NYZ004>008-013-014-021-310445-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-130131T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...
WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...WELLSVILLE
337 PM EST WED JAN 30 2013

...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...JEFFERSON...LEWIS...
   NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO. IN WESTERN NEW YORK...ALLEGANY... 
  LIVINGSTON...ONTARIO AND WAYNE. 

* THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON

* UNSEASONABLY WARM AND VERY MOIST AIR WILL INTERACT WITH AN
  APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND GENERATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS
  WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.
  RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES.
  THIS HEAVY RAINFALL... COMBINED WITH SOILS ALREADY SATURATED
  FROM RECENT RAINS AND SNOWMELT... WILL CREATE AN ELEVATED RISK
  FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE STEEPER TERRAIN
  OF THE FINGER LAKES AND TUG HILL PLATEAU REGIONS.

* THIS RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN RAPID RISES OF LOCAL STREAMS 
  RESULTING IN LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POORLY 
  DRAINED AREAS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

NYZ019-020-310445-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-130131T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN
337 PM EST WED JAN 30 2013

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTIES...CATTARAUGUS AND CHAUTAUQUA. 

* THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING

* UNSEASONABLY WARM AND VERY MOIST AIR WILL INTERACT WITH AN
  APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND GENERATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS
  WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.
  RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES.
  THIS HEAVY RAINFALL... COMBINED WITH SOILS ALREADY SATURATED
  FROM RECENT RAINS AND SNOWMELT... WILL CREATE AN ELEVATED RISK
  FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE STEEPER
  TERRAIN.

* THIS RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN RAPID RISES OF LOCAL STREAMS 
  RESULTING IN LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POORLY 
  DRAINED AREAS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

TJP

626 
WGUS61 KBUF 310345
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1045 PM EST WED JAN 30 2013

NYZ013-021-310445-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-130131T1800Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LIVINGSTON-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GENESEO...WELLSVILLE
1045 PM EST WED JAN 30 2013

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE FLOODING...THEREFORE THIS PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA IS
BEING CANCELLED. WITHIN BANK RIVER AND CREEK RISES ARE STILL EXPECTED.

$$

NYZ019-020-310445-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-130131T1200Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN
1045 PM EST WED JAN 30 2013

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE ANY ADDITIONAL FLOODING...THEREFORE THIS PORTION OF THE
WATCH AREA IS BEING CANCELLED. WITHIN BANK RIVER AND CREEK RISES
ARE STILL EXPECTED...AND LINGERING AREAS OF PONDED WATER FROM ICE
JAMS ARE POSSIBLE.

$$

NYZ004>008-014-311145-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-130131T1800Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-ONTARIO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...
WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...CANANDAIGUA
1045 PM EST WED JAN 30 2013

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
  COUNTIES...JEFFERSON...LEWIS...NORTHERN CAYUGA...ONTARIO AND
  WAYNE.

* THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON

* UNSEASONABLY WARM AND VERY MOIST AIR WILL INTERACT WITH AN
  APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND GENERATE A PERIOD OF RAINFALL WHICH
  WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED
  TO BE AROUND AN INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS HEAVY
  RAINFALL... COMBINED SNOWMELT FROM UNSEASONABLY WARM
  TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FLOODING. 

* THIS RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN RAPID RISES OF LOCAL
  STREAMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE STEEPER TERRAIN OF THE FINGER
  LAKES AND TUG HILL PLATEAU REGIONS. ICE JAMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
  THE BLACK RIVER AND TRIBUTARIES WILL ALSO APPROACH BANKFULL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

APFFEL

182 
WGUS61 KBUF 310936
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
436 AM EST THU JAN 31 2013

NYZ004>006-014-311045-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-130131T1800Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-ONTARIO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...
CANANDAIGUA
436 AM EST THU JAN 31 2013

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

WHILE AREA TRIBUTARIES WILL RUN HIGH TODAY DUE TO RECENT RAINS AND
SNOW MELT...ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL LARGELY BE IN THE
FORM OF SNOW. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO
NEAR FREEZING BY MIDDAY WILL ALLOW THE FLOOD WATCH TO BE
CANCELLED. 

$$

NYZ007-008-311745-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-130131T1800Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
436 AM EST THU JAN 31 2013

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTIES...JEFFERSON AND LEWIS. 

* UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON

* UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST AIR EARLY THIS MORNING WILL COMBINE
  WITH STEADY RAIN FROM A PASSING COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE AN
  ADDITIONAL HALF INCH OF RAINFALL. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH
  MELTING SNOW WILL ELEVATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.

* THE RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN HIGH FLOWS IN LOCAL STREAMS...
  ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE STEEPER TERRAIN OF THE FINGER LAKES AND
  TUG HILL PLATEAU REGIONS. ICE JAMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THE BLACK
  RIVER AND TRIBUTARIES WILL APPROACH BANKFULL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

RSH

151 
WGUS61 KBUF 311207
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
707 AM EST THU JAN 31 2013

NYZ007-008-311315-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-130131T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
707 AM EST THU JAN 31 2013

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

WHILE AREA TRIBUTARIES WILL RUN HIGH TODAY DUE TO RECENT RAINS AND
SNOW MELT...ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL LARGELY BE IN
THE FORM OF SNOW. WITH TEMPERATURES ALSO EXPECTED TO FALL TO
FREEZING BY LATE MORNING...THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

JJR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1158 PM EST TUE JAN 29 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILD AIR ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH PERIODS OF RAIN...SOME OF WHICH MAY
FALL AS FREEZING RAIN EARLY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT WITH
GUSTY WINDS...RAIN AND SHARPLY FALLING TEMPERATURES. BEHIND THIS
COLD FRONT EXPECT ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE TRADITIONAL
SNOWBELTS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 1100 PM...AN AREA OF SHOWERS HAS LIFTED OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER...AND WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE REGION DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS AREA HAS WEAKENED TO THE POINT THAT
THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LIGHTNING FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT...THOUGH A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. AS THIS AREA LIFTS NNE...CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT...WITH
SEVERAL RAIN FREE HOURS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEW
YORK AS WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT MIX DOWN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE IN SPOTS AS WARM AIR ALOFT CONTINUES
TO MIX DOWN. THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW AREAS OF FOG
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE MOIST DEW POINTS
RUN ACROSS THE SNOW PACK. INCREASING WINDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG
DEVELOPMENT TO SOME DEGREE.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL NEAR AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN
AS IT NEARS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TOMORROW MORNING. A 75
TO 80 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET 3K FEET OFF THE GROUND AHEAD OF THIS
SURFACE LOW WILL REACH INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND SLIGHTLY WEAKER FARTHER EASTWARD. THOUGH WARM
AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PREVENT THESE STRONGER WIND GUSTS FROM MIXING
DOWN...A SUSTAINED WIND MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 25 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
MAINLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. WILL HOIST A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS REASON...AND CONTINUE THE ADVISORY INTO
THURSDAY. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET PASSES EASTWARD LATER WEDNESDAY
THERE MAY BE A TIME OF SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS.

WEDNESDAY THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO DEEPEN AS IT PASSES JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. WITH THE
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY.

HIGHS TOMORROW BE NEAR RECORD LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
50S...TO LOWER 60S. RECORD HIGHS TOMORROW INCLUDE....BUFFALO 56
(1916)...ROCHESTER 55 (1974)...AND WATERTOWN 52 (2006). THE DAY
WILL START OFF NEAR THESE RECORDS...WITH THESE SITES ONLY A COUPLE
DEGREES SHY OF THESE RECORD VALUES AT MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHARP COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH PROFILES NOT SUPPORTING
SNOW ACROSS MOST AREAS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THEREFORE...WE
CONTINUE TO EXPECTED A BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
TO CROSS THE AREA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE EVENING.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR A BAND OF ENHANCED WINDS IF THE
CONVECTIVE LINE CAN ORGANIZE SUFFICIENTLY.

FIRST CONCERN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY
OR NEAR WARNING LEVEL WINDS. IMPRESSIVELY STRONG COLD ADVECTION
WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP MIXING WITH WINDS GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THURSDAY. A WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TO ADDRESS THIS HIGH
WIND POTENTIAL.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SHARPLY IN WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH 50S IN
THE EVENING DROPPING INTO THE 20S BY THURSDAY MORNING. A
SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
THAT WILL PROVIDE AN INITIAL LAKE EFFECT SETUP AS THE COLD AIR
GRADUALLY DEEPENS. DEPTH OF INSTABILITY NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
INITIALLY AND THINK ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO JUST A
COUPLE INCHES...ACROSS PRIMARILY THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AS WELL AS
THE TUG HILL.

THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR -20C
BY FRIDAY MORNING. INSPECTION OF NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING THAT
THE LAKE RESPONSE WILL BE ON THE UPTICK AFTER 18Z THURSDAY AS THE
PASSING OF A SHORTWAVE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENS THE INVERSION AND
ALLOWS EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS TO CLIMB TO AROUND 12K FEET. THERE ARE
SEVERAL FACTORS WHICH POINT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT EVENT FOR THIS PERIOD. BESIDES THE
EXCELLENT OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY WITH LAKE INDUCED CAPES CLIMBING TO
AROUND 700 J/KG...AMBIENT MOISTURE WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE WITH
THE PASSING WAVE. ALTHOUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WILL BE
RELATIVELY LOW IN THE COLD AIRMASS...WE SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO
GET SOME DECENT SNOW RATIOS. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATING LAKE SNOWS WILL BE IN FAVORED WESTERLY FETCH AREAS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS CONTINUING TO
SUGGEST THAT THE COLD AIR ADVECTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AS THE MEAN TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS. PARAMETERS FOR CONTINUED ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS CONTINUE TO LOOK GOOD AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAINING AROUND
-20C...COMBINED WITH EXCELLENT 850 MB TO 700 MB MOISTURE. ABOUT
THE ONLY NEGATIVE WILL BE THE LOWER THAN IDEAL INVERSION HEIGHTS
WHICH WILL BE GENERALLY FALL BELOW 7K FEET AND SOME LOSS OF
DENDRITIC GROWTH DEPTH AS MUCH OF THE SATURATED LAYER FALLS BELOW
-18C. THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP WINDS LESS THAN
STEADY STATE WITH LAKE EFFECT BANDS IMPACTING MULTIPLE AREAS OVER
THE WEEKEND...WITH SOME AREAS STILL HAVING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOWS. THE UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO RETREAT BACK UP INTO
NORTHEAST CANADA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR A MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES AND LIKELY AN END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT OF THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 06Z.
THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE VFR. PERIODS OF LOWER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT JHW/ART...WHERE THERE IS STILL SOME
SNOWPACK TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FOG DEVELOPMENT. IN
EACH CASE...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW...SINCE THE MIXING OF WINDS
WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE.

OTHERWISE...LLWS WILL BE A LINGERING CONCERN FOR THE TAFS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE WINDS TO 65
KNOTS AT 1500 FEET...WITH THESE EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE.

ON WEDNESDAY...A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS...WITH AGAIN A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER POSSIBLE. VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY...EXCEPT
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH BETTER MIXING AND GUSTY WINDS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MVFR WITH LOCALIZED IFR IN LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE LAKES.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH MVFR IN LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN MORE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUES BEGINNING
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THEN GALE WATCHES TAKE OVER WITH GALE FORCE
WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME MINOR ICE JAMMING ON SOME OF THE
CREEKS...WITH HYDRO GRAPHS SUGGESTING THERE IS OR HAS BEEN SOME ICE
FLOW ON THE CAYUGA CREEK...CAZENOVIA CREEK...BUFFALO CREEK...AND
CATTARAUGUS CREEK...AS WELL AS A SPOTTER REPORT OF ICE FLOWS ON
THE CONEWANGO. IN ALL OF THESE CASES...EXPECT THE ICE IS RATHER
THIN...WITH ANY JAMS LIKELY TO BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED. THIS
SAID...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE CREEKS...AS IT IS POSSIBLE
THERE WILL BE TEMPORARY AND MINOR ICE JAM FLOODING IN A FEW SPOTS
OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD REMOVE AND MELT MUCH OF THE ICE WHICH HAS
FORMED OVER THE PAST PERIOD OF COLD WEATHER.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ006>008-012-019-020-085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ001>008-010-011-013-014-021.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
         LEZ020-040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ020-
         040-041.
         GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
         AFTERNOON FOR LOZ030-042>045-062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
849 PM EST TUE JAN 29 2013

NYZ006>008-310200-
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
849 PM EST TUE JAN 29 2013

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.
   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ001>005-010-011-013-014-021-310200-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-ALLEGANY-
849 PM EST TUE JAN 29 2013

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ012-019-020-085-310200-
WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
849 PM EST TUE JAN 29 2013

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.
   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LOZ030-042>045-062>065-310200-
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
849 PM EST TUE JAN 29 2013

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

SLZ022-024-310200-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
849 PM EST TUE JAN 29 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF THE
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-310200-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
849 PM EST TUE JAN 29 2013

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF LAKE
ERIE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF