Severe Thunderstorm Warning 35, NWS Burlington, VT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
156 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH WARM TEMPERATURES...HIGH HUMIDITY...AND DAILY CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE BRIEF SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL AS THEY
PASS. DAILY HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 SOME DAYS CAN BE
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH MUGGY LOWS IN THE 60S. A COOLING TREND WILL
DEVELOP LATER IN THE WEEK WHEN A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE AREA...HOWEVER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL PERSIST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 139 PM EDT MONDAY...INSTABILITY DRIVEN PULSE THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BECOME QUITE NUMEROUS OVER ADIRONDACKS AND WEST CENTRAL
VERMONT. SBCAPES HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED...WITH VALUES AS HIGH AS
3500-4500 J/KG OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. VALUES ARE HIGH...BUT NOT
AS EXTREME FURTHER NORTH...RANGING FROM 1500-2500 J/KG. WIND FIELD
ALOFT IS LIGHT HOWEVER...AND NO DISCERNIBLE BOUNDARIES. EXPECT
STORMS TO CONTINUE THIS PM AND DECREASE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. STRONGEST STORMS WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE WILL CONTINUE OVER
SOUTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA. THREATS WILL BE HAIL AND BRIEF
STRONG WINDS IN DOWNBURSTS. ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FLASH FLOOD
THREAT SOUTHERN SECTIONS. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND TEMPS A BIT TO
REFLECT LATEST TRENDS...NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
IT'LL BE ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY TO START THE WORK WEEK AS THE
NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BERMUDA HIGH PARKED
OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. MID LEVEL THERMAL BOUNDARY WHICH WAS THE
FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT YESTERDAY PUSHES
JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER THIS AFTERNOON WITH MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS RISING...BUT WILL ONCE AGAIN AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD THROUGH
VERMONT. WARM SURFACE TEMPS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S TO LOWER 70S AGAIN WILL PRODUCE SBCAPES ON ORDER OF 1-2K
J/KG WITH PWATS CONTINUING TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL FROM 1.5-2".
THUS...THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST AND AREAS HARDEST HIT
YESTERDAY SUCH AS RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 407 AM EDT MONDAY...AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION DISSIPATES
OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THOUGH SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY KEEP A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND
THROUGH THE NIGHT. PRETTY GOOD BET FOR FOG AGAIN...THOUGH MAINLY
OUTSIDE THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS WHERE LIGHT SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 5-10KTS SHOULD INHIBIT WIDESPREAD FOG. LOW ONCE
AGAIN RUN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY A DEGREE
OR TWO LOWER MAKING IT FEEL RATHER MUGGY.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BROKEN RECORD WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES WITH ABOVE NORMAL HEAT/HUMIDITY AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PROBABLE AS THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS ON THE
PERIPHERY OF A HEAT RIDGE WITH SEVERAL POORLY RESOLVED SHORTWAVES
TRACKING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. DAY 2/3 PREDICTIONS FROM SPC HAVE
OUR AREA IN SLIGHT RISK GIVEN THE PROSPECTS OF A FEW STRONGER
SHORTWAVES PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION...SO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE STORMS. HIGHS CONTINUE TO RUN IN
THE 80S TO NEAR 90...LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S...AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 133 PM EDT MONDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...CONTINUED THREATS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA...DIGGING DEEPER AS BERMUDA HIGH
REMAINS IN PLACE TO THE EAST AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WRN
USA INTENSIFIES. THIS SCENARIO KEEPS S-SW FLOW OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY...PERSISTENTLY USHERING IN WARM MOIST AIR. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT...SO CONFIDENT FORECAST FOR WET
CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO M80S AND MIN TEMPS
RANGE FROM M50S TO M60S WITH MUGGY...STAGNANT AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE ATMOSPHERE ALREADY
DESTABILIZING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE CPV
AND AREAS SOUTH AND EAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SCATTERED WITH SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON FROM 17Z-24Z. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS WITH CB AT ALL TAF
SITES AND TEMPO -TSRA WITH CB MAINLY BTWN 18Z AND 00Z/TUESDAY.

EXPECTING MORE FOG AND MIST TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN THOSE AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN TODAY. BUT PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOOKS TO BE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT...SO EXPECT ANY BR/FG
DEVELOPMENT TO BE MVFR AND RECOVER QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UNSETTLED PATTERN
CONTINUES...DAYTIME VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR
PATCHY FOG AND MIST DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE IF ANY TAF SITE
RECEIVES HEAVY RAINFALL FROM CONVECTION DURING THE DAYTIME.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 133 PM EDT MONDAY...THE AUTOMATED WEATHER OBSERVING SYSTEM
(AWOS) AT THE RUTLAND-SOUTHERN VERMONT REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT)
HAS NOT SENT OUT A METAR OBSERVATION SINCE 0155Z. THE FAA AOCC
WHICH HAS MAINTENANCE RESPONSIBILITY FOR THIS SITE HAS OPENED UP
A TROUBLE TICKET FOR THIS SITE...AND CREWS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING
ON IT. THERE IS NO ESTIMATION AT THIS TIME AS TO WHEN THIS
PROBLEM WILL BE FIXED.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...WGH/KGM
EQUIPMENT...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
344 AM EDT MON JUN 24 2013

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-250745-
NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE-
WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-
WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR-
EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND-
344 AM EDT MON JUN 24 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK...CENTRAL
VERMONT...NORTHEAST VERMONT...NORTHWEST VERMONT AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EAST THROUGH VERMONT.
SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...GUSTY
WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WHILE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT AT THIS
TIME...STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH SOME ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUING TO PROVIDE
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY
BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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