Wind Advisory 15, NWS Brownsville, TX

726 
WWUS74 KBRO 091744
NPWBRO

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1244 PM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

...STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE...

.SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH TEXAS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN THE GRADIENT TODAY ACROSS THE
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP THE COASTAL COUNTIES
UNDER WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. THESE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER LATER THIS EVENING.

TXZ251-254>257-100100-
/O.CON.KBRO.WI.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-130410T0100Z/
KENEDY-INLAND WILLACY-INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-
COASTAL CAMERON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SARITA...RAYMONDVILLE...BROWNSVILLE...
HARLINGEN...PORT MANSFIELD...PORT ISABEL...SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...
LAGUNA HEIGHTS...LAGUNA VISTA
1244 PM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING BETWEEN 25 TO 35 MPH WITH 
  GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 40 MPH. 

* TIMING...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AROUND 10 AM 
  AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. 

* IMPACT...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT... 
  ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST 
  WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
30 TO 39 MPH AND OR FREQUENT GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND
57 MPH.

&&

$$

619 
WWUS74 KBRO 100100
NPWBRO

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
800 PM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

...WINDS DIMINISHING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS OVER NIGHT...

.STRONGEST WINDS HAVE ENDED BUT WINDS TO REMAIN BREEZY TO WINDY
OVERNIGHT. 

TXZ251-254>257-100200-
/O.EXP.KBRO.WI.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-130410T0100Z/
KENEDY-INLAND WILLACY-INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-
COASTAL CAMERON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SARITA...RAYMONDVILLE...BROWNSVILLE...
HARLINGEN...PORT MANSFIELD...PORT ISABEL...SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...
LAGUNA HEIGHTS...LAGUNA VISTA
800 PM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.


$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1248 AM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SURFACE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL NOT DECOUPLE TONIGHT
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS BETWEEN 40 TO 45 KNOTS. THE
00Z KBRO SOUNDING SHOWS AN INVERSION AROUND 15 KFT MAINTAINING
THE LOWER STRATOCU CEILING THROUGH THE NIGHT. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVING SOUTH WILL STRENGTHEN THE SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS AND THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEEPEN ALONG THE
COASTAL AREA OF THE RGV. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES
IMPACTING KBRO AND KHRL. CLOUD DECK WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DURING
THE DAY BUT THE OVC DECK WILL RETURN ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 PM CDT MON APR 8 2013/

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW STRATUS FORMING QUICKLY AS OF
0030Z TUESDAY. THE STRATUS TO SPREAD NORTHWEST OVER TAKING THE
THREE REGIONAL AIRPORTS BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 01Z. 00Z SOUNDING
SHOWS SURFACE INVERSION AROUND 1500 FEET. THE BASE OF THE STRATUS
SHOULD HOVER AT THIS LEVEL FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH THE
INVERSION TO STRENGTHEN. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS TO REMAIN GUSTY
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT MON APR 8 2013/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. STRATUS TO
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CIGS BY OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LOWER CLOUDS TO LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING THEN BEGIN TO DISSIPATE WEST TO EAST AS A SURFACE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE WESTERN COUNTIES TURNING WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL AREAS BY 18Z
TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL JET TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT NEARING 40 KNOTS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE COMPLETELY
WITH MECHANICAL MIXING TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. AVERAGE SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON INCREASING AND TURNING
SOUTH 20 TO 30 KNOTS TUESDAY MID MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 147 PM CDT MON APR 8 2013/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...MID LEVEL TROUGHING
WILL DEEPEN AND CARVE OUT A LARGE SECTION OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES IN THE SHORT TERM. RIDGING WILL CONCURRENTLY AMPLIFY OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND WILL ALSO NOSE NORTH AND EAST
ALONG THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE TROUGH
WILL SAG SOUTH INTO TEXAS FROM AN ENCLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO REINFORCE MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER TEXAS...AND WILL
ALSO SUPPORT SURFACE STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND ASSOCIATED PRESSURE FALLS WHICH WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY TO WINDY
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
THE SUBSIDENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO TEND TO MAINTAIN THE CAP
OVER THE COUNTY WARNING AREA...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH LOWER CEILINGS...ALONG WITH CONTINUED NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. EIGHTIES AND 90S WILL BE THE
PREVAILING HIGHS ON TUESDAY... WITH A CENTURY MARK OR TWO POSSIBLE
OUT WEST...BUT OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE PROPPED UP INTO
THE 70S BY HIGHER DEW POINTS AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE SCANT...THOUGH THE ADVANCE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT INTO TEXAS
WILL SPARK UNSETTLED WEATHER IN CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS TUESDAY
NIGHT....WITH THE SPC OUTLOOK EXTENDING THE GENERAL TSTM AREA
SOUTH TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS JUST UPSTREAM OF THE LOCAL CWA. TO
SUMMARIZE...LITTLE IMMEDIATE CHANGE TO THE CURRENT WEATHER IN THE
SHORT TERM...WHILE THE WIND MACHINE WILL CONTINUE TO CRANK OUT
BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...DEEP UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE CENTRAL US IN THE EXTENDED...WITH
ASSOCIATED POWERFUL COLD FRONT RUNNING JUST AHEAD OF IT. MODELS
HAVE REALLY COME AROUND AND ARE THOROUGHLY SIMILAR WITH THE TIMING
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CURRENT FORECAST ANALYSIS IS THE
FRONT APPROACHING FORM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH
PREFRONTAL TROUGH STRETCHING N/S ACROSS OUR AREA. THE FRONT
GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST...SLOWLY MERGING WITH THE
TROUGH ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AS THE TROUGH DRIFTS EAST.
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE FINAL PASSAGE OF THE FRONT FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO WEDNESDAY EVENING. ECMWF IS BECOMING MORE
OPTIMISTIC ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THE FRONT FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA...WITH POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE RACING THROUGH OVERNIGHT AS THE
MAIN VORT MAX ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE PASSING TROUGH. GFS IS MORE
PESSIMISTIC WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE BEFORE THE VORT MAX BRINGS THE
BEST DYNAMICS. HAVE KEPT SLGT CHANCE FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...RAISED POPS TO CHANCE FOR WED EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH LINGERING CHANCES NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE QUICKLY
INTO SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE COLD
FRONT RETURNING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FROM ON SATURDAY...BUT ARE
STILL AT ODDS ON WHERE THE MAIN PUSH OF MOISTURE GOES. THE MORE
WESTERLY MODELS BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE MORE EASTERLY MODELS HOLD PRECIP WELL OFFSHORE
INTO TO THE NORTHEAST. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT POP CHANCES FOR SATURDAY
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF WILL
INTERACT WITH THE PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING STORM
SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS TO PRODUCE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. THIS GRADIENT WILL IN TURN SUPPORT MDT TO
STRONG SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. EXERCISE CAUTION TO ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE A COMMON
THEME DURING THE SHORT TERM.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST FOCUS IS THE COLD
FRONT BARRELING THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS ARE BETTER HANDLING THE
TIMING...BUT STILL RANGE FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EITHER WAY...WINDS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL JUMP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS...PUSHING SEAS TO 7
TO 10 FEET OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE VERY LIKELY FOR
THIS EVENT. WHEN THE FRONT PASSES...A SIGNIFICANT SQUALL LINE MAY
ACCOMPANY IT...BRINGING SQUALLY WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM
DOWNPOURS. MARINERS ARE URGED TO BE PREPARED FOR INCLEMENT
WEATHER.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR TXZ248>250-252-253.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ150-155-
     170-175.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/66

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
859 PM CDT MON APR 8 2013

TXZ248>257-091100-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
859 PM CDT MON APR 8 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES OF SOUTH
PADRE ISLAND AND AT BOCA CHICA BEACH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281 WEDNESDAY. HUMIDITY TO LOWER AND WINDS TO INCREASE
POSSIBLY PRODUCING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. ONE OR
TWO COULD BE STRONG PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-091100-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
859 PM CDT MON APR 8 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 AM FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PERIODIC OR CONTINUOUS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR BOTH THE LAGUNA MADRE AND THE OFFSHORE COASTAL
WATERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.