Small Craft Advisory 10, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
522 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO SLACKEN AROUND THE 281 CORRIDOR
WITH FAIRLY GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING CLOSER TO
THE COAST. EXPECT THOSE 20 TO 27KT GUSTS WILL VERY SLOWLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE NIGHT...SLACKENING MOSTLY WHEN THE FRONT GETS QUITE
CLOSE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS SUGGEST CIGS OR LOW VIS SHOULD
NOT BE A HUGE PROBLEM TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR A QUICK
BOUT OF MVFR CIG IN CAMERON AND WILLACY COUNTY AND CONTINUED A
TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR THERE...BUT WAS A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC ON HEIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY OPERATIONAL IMPACT THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A STRONG PUSH OF NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO STACK
UP BEHIND THE FRONT. NEW TAF PACKAGE INCREASES SUSTAINED AND GUST
FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT. CURRENT GUSTS ARE FORECAST FROM AROUND
DAYBREAK THROUGH AROUND NOON TO BE IN THE 32 TO 39 KT BRACKET.
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ESPECIALLY
IN THE MORNING...BUT SHOULD NOT SEE MUCH BELOW 3000 FT AND VFR IS
FORECAST. WINDS SHOULD START TO SLACKEN A BIT AFTER AROUND 21Z BUT
GUSTS WILL STILL BE IN THE 20 TO 25KT RANGE. /68-JGG/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 207 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...THE COLD FRONT
PRODUCING THE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THE MAJOR 500 MB TROUGH AXIS THAT IS PRODUCING THIS WX
SCENARIO WILL PROGRESS STEADILY EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON WED. THE
PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL PULL A PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT RESULTING IN COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO WED. OVERALL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF THIS FROPA IS PRETTY MARGINAL WITH THE 12Z BRO SOUNDING
SHOWING A CAPE OF ONLY 1876 J/KG WITH A PWAT OF 1.25 INCHES. THE
LATEST LAPS CAPE VALUES DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF
DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES OF ONLY 1000 TO 1200
J/KG POOLED OVER THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH
THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION LATE AT NIGHT INDICATES THAT
THE SVR POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE PRETTY MINIMAL ATTM.
HOWEVER WILL MAINTAIN SOME SLGT CHC/CHC POPS FOR RW/TRW ALONG THE
COASTAL COUNTIES AND INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES OFFSHORE.

FOR POPS WENT CLOSER TO THE MAV/ECMWF NUMBERS VERSUS THE VERY DRY
MET GUIDANCE.

AFTER NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY AROUND THE REGION...WEDNESDAY WILL BE
A WELCOME BREAK IN THE HEAT AS TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO CLIMO FOR LATE
JAN. BOTH THE MAV AND MET TEMPS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
SHORT TERM WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOWS TONIGHT WHERE THE MAV HAS A
WARMER BIAS FOR LOWS TONIGHT VERSUS THE COOLER MET NUMBERS WITH THE
MET BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH A BIT SOONER. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH
A BLEND OF THE TWO FOR TONIGHT AND WILL GO CLOSER TO MET NUMBERS
AFTER TONIGHT.

FIRE WEATHER...THE FIRE WX WATCH FOR TOMORROW LOOKS GOOD FOR
TOMORROW AND MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING LATER
TONIGHT AS EXPECTED RH VALUES TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL PLUMMET TO 10
TO 20 PERCENT WITH 20 FT WINDS PUSHING INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT
RANGE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW AT
500MB TO START THE PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS
MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHWARD FROM MEXICO AND
CORRESPONDING RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE THE DOMINATE
FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEING PERIODICALLY REINFORCED
BY HIGH PRESSURE FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. NO MAJOR SYSTEMS TO SPEAK
OF THIS PERIOD AND WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IT WILL BE QUITE
PLEASANT AND MILD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE
LOWER/MIDDLE 70S ON THURSDAY TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S BY MONDAY.

MARINE /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...PRETTY HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE LOWER TX GULF WATERS
TONIGHT INTO WED AHEAD OF AND IN THE WAKE OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT. THE PGF WILL REMAIN VERY STRONG FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
RESULTING IN STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT AND STRONG NW FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE FROPA ON WED. HAVE EXTENDED THE SCAS FOR BOTH THE
BAY AND GULF WATERS THROUGH 00Z TOMORROW.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
AND SEAS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM THE UPPER GULF COAST TO
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
SOUTHEAST WITH A PERIOD OF A LITTLE HIGHER WINDS MONDAY FROM THE
SOUTH AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ248>257.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ251-253>257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/68

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
440 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

TXZ248>257-301045-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
440 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR HIDALGO...KENEDY...CAMERON AND
WILLACY COUNTIES FOR TODAY DUE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS. THERE
IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES OF SOUTH PADRE
ISLAND AND AT BOCA CHICA BEACH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BUT IMMEDIATELY COASTAL CAMERON AND WILLACY
COUNTIES FOR ENHANCED FIRE DANGER WEDNESDAY AS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
BUILD IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

FORMAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER REPORTS OF
SIGNIFICANT WINDS...SUCH AS 50 TO 60 MPH WINDS...OR WIND DAMAGE
WOULD BE APPRECIATED ON TUESDAY.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-301045-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
440 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS WILL BE IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE
LAGUNA MADRE AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS DUE TO STRONG SOUTH
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY BEHIND A COLD FRONT EXPECTED LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW HOURS OF GALE FORCE GUSTS
POSSIBLE AND SEVERAL HOURS OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES...OR GALE
WARNINGS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.