High Surf Advisory 2, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
229 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2013

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THOROUGHLY SATURATED TROPICAL
AIR MASS IN PLACE. LINES OF SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MIDDLE AND LOWER VALLEY ALONG LOCAL ZONES OF CONVERGENCE. LOW LAYER
INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN FOR THOSE TO PERSIST AND DEVELOP THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. AXIS OF CONVERGENCE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO TRAIN
OVER THE SAME AREAS. GROUND AND LOCAL DRAINAGE SYSTEMS REMAIN
GENERALLY SATURATED AND REMAIN PARTICULARLY CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING
IN URBAN AREAS...ABOUT ALL IT WOULD TAKE IS A BAND OF SHOWERS SUCH
AS THE ONES GOING THROUGH PORT MANSFIELD AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING WILL DEVELOP. WILL BE CONTINUING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW FOR NOW.

REST OF TODAY...AREAS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ONSHORE...THE
LOCAL RAINBANDS ARE WEAKENING AS INGRID DISSIPATES BUT THAT SHOULD
FURTHER SPREAD OUT THE GENERAL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE...KEEPING
OUR RAIN CHANCES VERY HIGH. ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF THE FORECAST A
BIT BUT GENERALLY LEFT IT ALONE. VWP SHOWS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
STARTING TO RELAX AS INGRID WEAKENS...THE TORNADO POTENTIAL FOR THE
RGV LOOKS TO BE RELAXING AS THAT OCCURS AS WELL. CAN NOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A QUICK TORNADO...ESPECIALLY IN BANDED CONVECTION...BUT THE
CHANCE APPEARS TO BE LESSENING. HIGH SURF WARNING AND COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY ARE STILL LOOKING GOOD AND WILL LEAVE THOSE IN PLACE AS
WELL.

TONIGHT...LOW LAYER CONVERGENCE IN CURVED FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE CHANCE IS A LITTLE BETTER EAST OF 281 WHERE GREATER
INSTABILITY WILL ADVECT IN OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO...BUT STILL NOT
ZERO ANYWHERE.

TUESDAY...SATURATED AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ON TUESDAY. VERY WEAK
UPPER SUPPORT FROM DIFFLUENCE GENERATED BY DISSIPATING TC MANUEL. IN
GENERAL EXPECTING A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN ACTIVITY DURING THE EARLY
MORNING...PICKING UP BY MID TO LATE MORNING. HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THOUGH...WITH PWATS 2.2 TO 2.4 INCHES SO
THERE WILL REMAIN AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM OR
FLASH FLOODING. POPS REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH AT 50 TO 60 PCT.
TEMPERATURES WERE WARMED A DEGREE OR TWO AS WE WILL PROBABLY GET AT
LEAST AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUN IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING. /68-JGG/

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
AREA WILL PERSIST OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WEDNESDAY...PROLONGING
DEEP EAST FLOW...AT LEAST INTO THE MID LEVELS...THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK. MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM UPSTREAM WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SOME DRIER AIR BY SUNDAY...REPRESENTING AT LEAST A BREAK
FROM ALL THE UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
INHERITED FORECAST MAINTAINED WITH LITTLE CHANGE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND FOR THE GULF WATERS
TONIGHT. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE GULF WATERS HAS BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY...MAINLY DUE TO ROUGH
SEAS. A SLOW IMPROVEMENT OF CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY
NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH A CONTINUING MODERATE EAST WIND
INTO WEDNESDAY AND EVEN THURSDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS WILL WILL STAY UP
NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE OPEN GULF. WINDS WILL VEER LATE IN
THE WEEK AND SEAS WILL THEN EASE. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
HOWEVER...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  89  79  85 /  60  50  50  70
BROWNSVILLE          78  89  77  86 /  60  50  50  70
HARLINGEN            77  90  76  87 /  60  50  50  70
MCALLEN              77  90  76  88 /  50  60  50  70
RIO GRANDE CITY      76  89  75  87 /  60  60  40  50
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  87  80  84 /  60  60  50  70

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ251-256-257.

     HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-257.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ252>257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-
     135.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

68/54/VEGA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
845 AM CDT MON SEP 16 2013

TXZ248>250-252>255-171345-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-
845 AM CDT MON SEP 16 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR
CAMERON...HIDALGO...STARR...AND WILLACY COUNTIES. AREAS OF FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A SMALL RISK FOR TORNADOES IN LOCAL RAINBAND
ACTIVITY...THE RISK FOR TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH
LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

TROPICAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE...WITH A HIGHER RISK OF FLOODING FOR LOW LYING AREAS
AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING
AND BE ALERT FOR THE SMALL POSSIBILITY OF TORNADO WATCHES OR
WARNINGS LATER TODAY.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-171345-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
845 AM CDT MON SEP 16 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS WATERS
TODAY AND FOR THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE
LOWER TEXAS BAY AND GULF WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE LOWER TEXAS
GULF WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING
AND BE ALERT FOR THE SMALL POSSIBILITY OF TORNADO WATCHES OR
WARNINGS LATER TODAY.

TXZ251-256-257-171345-
KENEDY-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
845 AM CDT MON SEP 16 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR
CAMERON...HIDALGO...STARR...AND WILLACY COUNTIES. AREAS OF FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING AND A HIGH SURF WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING DUE TO THE
ELEVATED SWELLS FROM HURRICANE INGRID MOVING ON TO THE LOWER TEXAS
COASTLINE.

TROPICAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AS HURRICANE INGRID MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE
EASTERN COASTLINE OF MEXICO. NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH A HIGHER RISK OF FLOODING FOR LOW LYING AREAS AND
AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

TROPICAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THURSDAY. NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH A HIGHER RISK OF FLOODING FOR LOW LYING
AREAS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING
AND BE ALERT FOR THE SMALL POSSIBILITY OF TORNADO WATCHES OR
WARNINGS LATER TODAY.

JGG

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