Coastal Flood Statement 9, NWS Brownsville, TX

108 
WHUS44 KBRO 261955
CFWBRO

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
255 PM CDT SAT OCT 26 2013

...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING TONIGHT...
...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TODAY...

.THE LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST. THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL REMAIN HIGHER AS AN EAST SWELL
AROUND 8 FEET CONTINUES TO BE DIRECTED TOWARDS THE SHORE LINE. THE
HIGHER SWELLS WILL COMBINE WITH A HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE AROUND
MIDNIGHT TO PRODUCE TIDAL OVERWASH WITH SURF RUNNING UP TO THE
DUNES. TIDES SLOWLY LOWER SUNDAY MORNING HOWEVER SWELLS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.


TXZ251-256-257-270400-
/O.NEW.KBRO.CF.Y.0006.131027T0000Z-131027T1700Z/
/O.CON.KBRO.CF.S.0009.000000T0000Z-131027T0000Z/
/O.CON.KBRO.RP.S.0006.000000T0000Z-131027T0600Z/
KENEDY-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
255 PM CDT SAT OCT 26 2013

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT
SUNDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON CDT SUNDAY...

...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AT THE LOCAL BEACHES...

* COASTAL FLOODING...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR SEVERAL HOURS
  EITHER SIDE OF MIDNIGHT WITH ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE AROUND 2
  FEET ABOVE NORMAL AND GRADUALLY LOWERING SUNDAY MORNING.

* TIMING...RIP CURRENT WILL REMAIN HIGH TODAY. HIGHEST TIDES
  BETWEEN 10 PM AND 2 AM WITH LINGERING RUN UP THROUGH THE EARLY
  MORNING HOURS SUNDAY.

* IMPACTS...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT STRONGER OR MORE
  FREQUENT LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS...WHICH WILL CREATE
  DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS AT THE BEACHES OF BOCA CHICA AND
  PADRE ISLAND...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE JETTY. SWIMMING IS HIGHLY
  DISCOURAGED. PEOPLE FISHING NEAR THE SOUTH PADRE ISLAND JETTY
  AND IN THE SURF COULD BECOME OVERWHELMED WITH HIGHER WAVES DUE
  TO THE LARGER EAST TO SOUTHEAST SWELLS. THIS LARGE SWELLS WILL
  PRODUCE ROUGH SURF WHICH COULD SWEEP AWAY BEACH CHAIRS...TENTS
  AND UMBRELLAS BY THE OVERWASH DURING THE DAY. TONIGHT MINOR
  COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AND DRIVING ON THE BEACH IS NOT
  RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

RIP CURRENTS ARE POWERFUL CHANNELS OF WATER FLOWING QUICKLY AWAY
FROM SHORE...WHICH OCCUR MOST OFTEN AT LOW SPOTS OR BREAKS IN THE
SANDBAR AND IN THE VICINITY OF STRUCTURES SUCH AS GROINS...
JETTIES AND PIERS. HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS AND THE BEACH
PATROL. PAY ATTENTION TO FLAGS AND POSTED SIGNS.

IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...DO NOT PANIC. REMAIN CALM
AND BEGIN TO SWIM PARALLEL TO SHORE. ONCE YOU ARE AWAY FROM THE
FORCE OF THE RIP CURRENT...BEGIN TO SWIM BACK TO THE BEACH. DO
NOT ATTEMPT TO SWIM DIRECTLY AGAINST A RIP CURRENT. EVEN A STRONG
SWIMMER CAN BECOME EXHAUSTED QUICKLY.

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS ISSUED FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING OR TIDAL OVERWASH...DEFINED AS TIDES EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER ALONG THE SOUTH
PADRE ISLAND BEACH FRONT AND 2.5 TO 3.5 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW
WATER FOR COMMUNITIES ALONG THE LAGUNA MADRE.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
632 AM CDT SAT OCT 26 2013

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH GULF...
LEADING TO LIGHT TO MDT EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS...VFR CONDITIONS AND
FAIR AVIATION WEATHER. SCT TO BKN LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP...WITH
ANY CEILINGS ABOVE 3 KFT. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
GULF TO THE EAST...AFFECTING COASTAL AREAS...AND COULD CONTINUE
THROUGH AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT SAT OCT 26 2013/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...A SHALLOW...POSITIVE TILT...MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS TODAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD TRACK BELOW THE SHORT WAVE.
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL NOT HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT ON DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...BUT COULD WEAKEN THE STRONG SURFACE
RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...RESULTING IN
WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW LOCALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS COOLER AIR FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED FLOWS OUT OVER THE NORTH GULF AND TRIGGERS MARINE
SHOWERS WHICH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST. MODERATE EAST WINDS
WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING THIS WAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A
MIX OF LOW CLOUDS AND SUN TODAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA PRETTY CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
MODERATE EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...
WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST WITH STREAMER SHOWERS ABLE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE UP
FROM THE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SUNDAY WILL BE
MUCH THE SAME AS TODAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NUDGING UP A DEGREE
OR SO.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATE WEEK/WEEKEND FRONT STILL SHOWS SIGNS OF LOW
PREDICTABILITY...SIGNAL REMAINS STRONG FOR WINDY CONDITIONS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

BY MONDAY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...WITH WEAK RIDGING IN A MESHING OF A SOUTHERN BRANCH OF
THE POLAR JET AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND A WEAK TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE MID TO SFC LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US AND NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AS TROUGHING BEGINS TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE
ROCKIES AND IN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA MADRE. 00Z GUIDANCE PAINTS
MONDAY AS A BREEZIER DAY THAN THE LAST FEW WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS IN
THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. 700MB
WINDS OUT OF THE WEST SOUTHWEST WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD AID
IN KEEPING CAPPING IN PLACE DESPITE LOW MOISTURE INCREASING AND HAVE
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY ON MONDAY.

THE LAST SEVERAL GFS/ECMWF RUNS HAVE HANDLED THE EVOLUTION OF THE
PACIFIC STORM DIFFERENTLY STARTING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THAT
IS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE. THE ECMWF CLOSES
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND KEEPS MOST OF THE JET
ENERGY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER...WHICH MAKES IT RESISTANT TO BEING
SENT EAST TO NORTHEASTWARD BY ANOTHER ADVANCING JET MAXIMUM FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN AND SHUNTS IT MORE
QUICKLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION DESPITE HAVING CONSIDERABLE JET
ENERGY TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER IN
ADVANCING THE TROUGH BUT BRINGS THE MOMENTUM OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST JET FURTHER SOUTH...RESULTING IN A DEEPER TROUGH AND
STRONGER RIDGING BEHIND THE TROUGH. THIS ADVANCES A MORE ROBUST COLD
FRONT FURTHER SOUTH FASTER...BRINGING IT THROUGH THIS REGION ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AS OPPOSED TO THE GFS WHICH SHOWS A SATURDAY
MORNING FROPA. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PREFER THE LATER SOLUTION BUT DO
HAVE ABOUT 30 PCT BUY IN TO A FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROPA. PREFER THE
ECMWF SYNOPTICALLY BASED ON THE JET STRUCTURE...BUT DID SLOW THE
FROPA DOWN A FEW HOURS AND USED THAT AS THE BASE FOR THE NEW
FORECAST...WHICH IS NOT DRASTICALLY CHANGED. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SHOW A GREAT DEAL OF SPREAD AND DAYS 5 THROUGH 7 OF THE FORECAST ARE
BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE...PRIMARILY ON TIMING.

CONTINUED A FORECAST FOR WINDY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...WITH WINDS IN
THE NEW FORECAST RUNNING 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS IN THE 35 MPH RANGE
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY...SAVE THE ABSOLUTE IMMEDIATE COAST
ON SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AND IMMEDIATELY NEAR SHORE WATERS. WARMED
TEMPERATURES UP JUST A BIT ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S. CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MAINLY MORNING SHOWERS BUT
STRONG WIND SHOULD LIMIT LOW LAYER CONVERGENCE AND SOLIDLY
SOUTHWESTERLY 850/700MB WINDS SHOULD KEEP CAPPING IN PLACE. WITH NO
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO HELP SET THINGS OFF IT IS NOT A
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC POSITION FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
MAXIMIZES WITH 850/925 MB WINDS PUSHING 50KTS BEFORE EASING A
BIT...STILL EXPECT A PRETTY WINDY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A REPEAT OF
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING COASTAL SHOWERS BUT A DRY
AFTERNOON. THURSDAY WINDS TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AT THE
SURFACE AND KEPT THIS AS THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7 WITH HIGHS
AROUND 90 TO 93 THROUGHOUT THE AREA. STILL KEPT POPS LOW...MAINLY
FAVORING COASTAL SHOWERS. BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT THE FRONT AND ITS LARGER THAN NORMAL TIMING MARGIN OF ERROR
BEGIN TO APPROACH AND KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND NOW
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING TO AROUND 30 PCT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. DID HOLD THE POPS
A LITTLE LOWER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE CWA WHERE CAPPING AND
DRY AIR HOLD RAIN CHANCES BACK DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE NEW
FORECAST HAS THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SOLID
PUSH OF NORTH WINDS AND DRIER AIR BEHIND IT. THIS TIMING WILL
UNDOUBTEDLY BE ADJUSTED AS THE EVENT NEARS. RAIN CHANCES BASED ON
THE SYNOPTIC PICTURE WILL BE LIMITED TO CLOSE TO AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BUILDING A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. /68-JGG/

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP MODERATE EAST WINDS GOING THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE LONG EAST FETCH ACROSS THE GULF WILL RESULT IN LOW END SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND SEVEN FEET. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SPREAD OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...RESULTING IN
LIGHTER SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS FROM THREE TO SIX FEET ON
SUNDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ENHANCED CLOUDINESS OVER THE NORTH
WEST GULF DUE TO COOLER AIR OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES MOVING
OUT OVER THE GULF. RADAR CONFIRMS THE BUILDUPS AS SHOWERS MOVE INTO
DETECTION RANGE FROM THE EAST. HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL CONTINUE
TODAY. BEACH OVER WASH AND RUN UP WILL BE LESS OF AN ISSUE TODAY AS
TIDES...THOUGH ABOVE PREDICTED...DECREASE TOWARD A LOW AT 226 PM.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
TO BUILD IN MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AFTERNOON ON THE LAGUNA MADRE DUE
TO WINDS WITH EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY ON THE
GULF WATERS DUE TO SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH AT LEAST EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS A GOOD POSSIBILITY FOR MUCH OF
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR TXZ251-256-257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ150-155-
     170-175.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/68/58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
429 AM CDT SAT OCT 26 2013

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-270930-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
429 AM CDT SAT OCT 26 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR SEVEN FEET
AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

TXZ248>250-252>255-270930-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-
429 AM CDT SAT OCT 26 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

TXZ251-256-257-270930-
KENEDY-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
429 AM CDT SAT OCT 26 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.