Coastal Flood Statement 10, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
300 PM CST WED NOV 6 2013

.SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...THE DAYTIME HEATING
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS COMBINING WITH DECENT LAPS
CAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 TO 2000 J/KG OVER THE AREA TO FIRE OFF
GOOD RW/TRW COVERAGE AROUND THE BRO CWA THIS AFTERNOON. PRETTY
WEAK WIND FIELDS ARE KEEPING THE CONV CELLULAR MOVEMENT PRETTY
SLOW AT THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL
TX AND IS CONTINUING SOUTH AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS COMBINATION OF
FACTORS SHOULD MAINTAIN THE CONV THREAT OVER THE REGION UNTIL THE
FRONT CLEARS THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING. SO HAVE KEPT
THE BEST CONV POTENTIAL THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT WITH POPS TRENDING
DOWN AFTER 06Z AS MORE STABLE AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION.

SO FAR BELIEVE THAT THE SVR CONV POTENTIAL WILL BE FAIRLY LOW DUE TO
THE SOMEWHAT LIMITED CAPE VALUES AND THE PAST RADAR AND LIGHTNING
TRENDS. THE MAIN THREAT THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS WILL BE THE
BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH FROPA.

FOR POPS AM GOING CLOSER TO THE WETTER MAV/ECMWF NUMBERS AS THE NAM
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE INITIALIZING VERY WELL ON THE ONGOING CONV AND
APPEARS TO BE PLACING MORE EMPHASIS ON PILING THE CONV OVER THE
WESTERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING.

FOR TEMPS...BOTH THE MAV AND MET SHOW GOOD CAA OCCURING IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FRONT AND FORECAST TEMPS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A BLEND
OF BOTH MODEL SETS WHICH ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT
TERM.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH RIDGING OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WILL WORK
EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
BAJA CALIFORNIA WEAKENING AND BEING ABSORBED INTO THE FLOW WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION. CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN THICK ON FRIDAY WHICH
WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW NORMAL. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO INCREASE TO NEAR
NORMAL THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY WHICH WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY NIGHT BUT COASTAL TROUGHING
DEVELOPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...THE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE
QUICKLY DETERIORATING ACROSS THE LOWER TX BAY AND GULF WATERS THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT NOW APPROACHING THE TX
COASTLINE PUSHES OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA
THE PGF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL RAMP UP QUICKLY TONIGHT
RESULTING IN MORE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS BOTH ACROSS THE BAY AND
GULF WATERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING 24 HOURS. SO HAVE GONE WITH A SCA
FOR BOTH THE BAY AND GULF WATERS THROUGHOUT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
THE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE THURS NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES AND THE SWELLS START TO DECREASE.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
INTO FRIDAY AS WINDS SLOWLY DECREASE BUT SEA HEIGHTS WILL BE 6 TO 8
FEET FALLING TO 4 TO 6 FEET BY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
WILL DOMINATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE EASTERLY.
COASTAL TROUGHING WILL STRENGTHEN MONDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING
SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND WINDS MORE NORTHEASTERLY. ALL THAT
SAID...FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  63  71  57  75 /  70  30   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          61  72  53  75 /  70  30   0   0
HARLINGEN            58  72  51  76 /  70  30   0   0
MCALLEN              58  70  51  76 /  70  30   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      53  67  49  75 /  70  20   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   66  71  62  74 /  60  40  10   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM
     CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR GMZ150-155-170-175.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...MARTINEZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
940 AM CST WED NOV 6 2013

TXZ248>257-071015-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
940 AM CST WED NOV 6 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES OF SOUTH
PADRE ISLAND AND AT BOCA CHICA BEACH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS POSSIBLE AT THE LOCAL BEACHES
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-071015-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
940 AM CST WED NOV 6 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING
TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE LOWER
TEXAS GULF WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING
TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE LOWER
TEXAS GULF WATERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
219 PM CST WED NOV 6 2013

TXZ255-062115-
INLAND CAMERON-
219 PM CST WED NOV 6 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES OF ONE
TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR...

  FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS...
  EASTERN CAMERON COUNTY IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

  UNTIL 315 PM CST...

  AT 218 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED AN
  AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS...FROM 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF LAURELES
  TO 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LAURELES...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

  LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LOZANO.
  LAS YESCAS.
  MONTE GRANDE.
  LA TINA.

  MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL MEDIA...OR WEATHER.GOV FOR
  UPDATES.

&&

55

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
316 PM CST WED NOV 6 2013

TXZ255-062200-
INLAND CAMERON-
316 PM CST WED NOV 6 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND
   TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...

  FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS...
  SOUTHERN CAMERON COUNTY IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

  UNTIL 400 PM CST...

  AT 315 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
  A STRONG THUNDERSTORM...SOUTHWEST OF OLMITO...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT
  5 MPH.

  LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  OLMITO.
  SAN PEDRO.

  MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL MEDIA...OR WEATHER.GOV FOR
  UPDATES.

&&

55

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
408 PM CST WED NOV 06 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BROWNSVILLE             25.93N  97.48W
11/06/2013                   CAMERON            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1.5 FEET OF WATER COVERING THE ROAD IN THE 700 BLOCK OF
            PAREDES LINE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BRO1300046

EB

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
427 PM CST WED NOV 6 2013

TXZ251-062330-
KENEDY-
427 PM CST WED NOV 6 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES OF ONE
TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR...

  FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS...
  NORTHWESTERN KENEDY COUNTY IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

  UNTIL 530 PM CST...

  AT 424 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
  STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG HIGHWAY 77/69...9 MILES
  SOUTH OF SARITA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH. WATER AND MUD NEAR
  HIGHWAY CONSTRUCTION SITE MAY COVER THE ROAD.

  LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  TURCOTTE.
  SARITA.

  MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL MEDIA...OR WEATHER.GOV FOR
  UPDATES.   WHEN DRIVING THROUGH HEAVY RAIN...SLOW DOWN. ALWAYS
  LEAVE A SAFE DISTANCE BETWEEN YOU AND OTHER VEHICLES. WHEN USING
  WIPERS...TURN ON HEADLIGHTS. AVOID DRIVING THROUGH PUDDLES THAT
  COULD HIDE POTHOLES OR CAUSE HYDROPLANING. SEVEN THOUSAND PEOPLE
  DIE IN WEATHER RELATED AUTOMOBILE   ACCIDENTS EACH YEAR... MANY
  DUE TO POOR VISIBILITY AND WET ROADS.

&&

59