Winter Storm Warning 1, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

416 
WWUS41 KBOX 220430
WSWBOX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1130 PM EST MON JAN 21 2013

...AREAS OF SNOW CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING...

MAZ006-007-022-221230-
/O.CON.KBOX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-130122T1800Z/
WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-BARNSTABLE MA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAWRENCE...GLOUCESTER...CHATHAM...
FALMOUTH...PROVINCETOWN
1130 PM EST MON JAN 21 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST
TUESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...FAR NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS AND CAPE COD.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM THE SOUTH COAST
  INTO EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT
  TIMES WITH SNOWFALL RATES ABOUT AN INCH AN HOUR. THE SNOW SHOULD
  TAPER OFF BY LATE MORNING.

* IMPACTS...SLICK ROADWAYS AND POOR VISIBILITIES. WITH THE LIGHT 
  NATURE OF SNOW...BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW WILL BE 
  POSSIBLE. THE TUESDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR ACROSS EASTERN NEW 
  ENGLAND IS ANTICIPATED TO BE IMPACTED. 

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN THE
  AFTERNOON.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 20S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN AN AVERAGE OF 6 OR MORE
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD...OR FOR 8 OR MORE
INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. TRAVEL WILL BE SLOW AT BEST ON WELL
TREATED SURFACES...AND QUITE DIFFICULT ON ANY UNPLOWED OR
UNTREATED SURFACES.

&&

$$

CTZ004-MAZ004-005-012>021-023-024-026-NHZ012-015-RIZ001>008-
221200-
/O.CON.KBOX.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-130122T1200Z/
WINDHAM CT-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-
WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-
EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-
NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-
EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-
BLOCK ISLAND RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC...BARRE...
FITCHBURG...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...MILFORD...WORCESTER...FOXBORO...
NORWOOD...CAMBRIDGE...BOSTON...QUINCY...TAUNTON...BROCKTON...
PLYMOUTH...FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD...MATTAPOISETT...
VINEYARD HAVEN...NANTUCKET...AYER...MANCHESTER...NASHUA...
PETERBOROUGH...WEARE...FOSTER...SMITHFIELD...PROVIDENCE...
WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK...BRISTOL...NARRAGANSETT...WESTERLY...
NEWPORT...BLOCK ISLAND
1130 PM EST MON JAN 21 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND AND ALL OF 
  RHODE ISLAND. 

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH COAST TO EASTERN
  PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. THE SNOW WILL
  THEN TAPER OFF EVERYWHERE BY LATE MORNING

* IMPACTS...SLICK ROADWAYS AND POOR VISIBILITIES. WITH THE LIGHT 
  NATURE OF SNOW...BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW WILL BE 
  POSSIBLE. THE TUESDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR ACROSS EASTERN NEW 
  ENGLAND IS ANTICIPATED TO BE IMPACTED. 

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 20S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SNOW AND/OR ICE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE AFFECTED AREAS.  WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE
BELOW FREEZING...MOTORISTS NEED TO BE ESPECIALLY CAREFUL ON
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WHERE SLIPPERY SPOTS CAN EASILY DEVELOP.

&&

$$

488 
WWUS41 KBOX 220902
WSWBOX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
402 AM EST TUE JAN 22 2013

...SNOW CONTINUES PARTICULARLY ON THE OUTER EXTREMITIES...COLD
WIND CHILLS EXPECTED TONIGHT...

.WHILE THE BULK OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE AREA HAS ENDED THIS
MORNING...A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL GIVE WAY TO
CONTINUED SNOWFALL FOR THE OUTER EXTREMITIES OF THE E COAST. THIS
INCLUDES CAPE COD...CAPE ANN AND EASTERN ESSEX COUNTY AS WELL AS
NANTUCKET. IN THESE AREAS A COUPLE MORE INCHES OF SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING. HOWEVER...THE SNOW SHOULD BE
GRADUALLY ENDING BY ABOUT MID DAY.

.OTHERWISE...VERY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

MAZ006-007-022-221715-
/O.CAN.KBOX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-130122T1800Z/
/O.EXB.KBOX.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-130122T1800Z/
WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-BARNSTABLE MA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAWRENCE...GLOUCESTER...CHATHAM...
FALMOUTH...PROVINCETOWN
402 AM EST TUE JAN 22 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

* LOCATIONS...ESSEX AND BARNSTABLE COUNTIES IN MASSACHUSETTS.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF ABOUT 1 TO 3
  INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END BY ABOUT MID DAY.

* IMPACTS...SLICK ROADWAYS AND POOR VISIBILITIES. WITH THE LIGHT
  NATURE OF SNOW...BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH BY MID
  DAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SNOW AND/OR ICE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE AFFECTED AREAS.  WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE
BELOW FREEZING...MOTORISTS NEED TO BE ESPECIALLY CAREFUL ON
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WHERE SLIPPERY SPOTS CAN EASILY DEVELOP.

&&

$$

MAZ004-012-221715-
/O.CAN.KBOX.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-130122T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.WC.Y.0001.130123T0300Z-130123T1500Z/
NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BARRE...FITCHBURG...MILFORD...WORCESTER
402 AM EST TUE JAN 22 2013

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
EST WEDNESDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

* LOCATIONS...MUCH OF WORCESTER COUNTY
  MASSACHUSETTS...PARTICULARLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

* HAZARD TYPES...VERY COLD WIND CHILLS.

* WIND CHILL READINGS...AS LOW AS NEAR 20 BELOW.

* TIMING...THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL OCCUR
  AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO ABOUT MID MORNING
  WEDNESDAY.

* IMPACTS...THERE WILL BE A HEIGHTENED THREAT FOR FROSTBITE OR
  HYPOTHERMIA FOR THOSE VENTURING OUTSIDE. ANYONE OUTSIDE SHOULD
  LIMIT AREAS OF EXPOSED SKIN AND DRESS IN LAYERS... AND LIMIT YOUR
  TIME OUTSIDE.

* WINDS...WEST 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...2 BELOW TO ABOUT 10 ABOVE ZERO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN THE WIND CHILL INDEX IS
LIKELY TO REACH -15 TO -24 DEGREES FOR AT LEAST 3 HOURS.
FROSTBITE CAN DEVELOP IN JUST 30 MINUTES WITH A WIND CHILL INDEX
OF -20. IF YOU ARE HEADING OUTDOORS...DRESS IN LAYERS AND WEAR A
HAT AND GLOVES.

&&

$$

CTZ004-MAZ005-013>021-023-026-NHZ012-015-RIZ001>008-221015-
/O.CAN.KBOX.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-130122T1200Z/
WINDHAM CT-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-
SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-
NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-
SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-DUKES MA-
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-
BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC...FRAMINGHAM...
LOWELL...FOXBORO...NORWOOD...CAMBRIDGE...BOSTON...QUINCY...
TAUNTON...BROCKTON...PLYMOUTH...FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD...
MATTAPOISETT...VINEYARD HAVEN...AYER...MANCHESTER...NASHUA...
PETERBOROUGH...WEARE...FOSTER...SMITHFIELD...PROVIDENCE...
WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK...BRISTOL...NARRAGANSETT...WESTERLY...
NEWPORT...BLOCK ISLAND
402 AM EST TUE JAN 22 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY.

THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL HAS ENDED ACROSS THE ADVISORY
AREA...WHILE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING LITTLE TO NO EXTRA ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

$$

MAZ002-003-008>010-221715-
/O.NEW.KBOX.WC.Y.0001.130123T0300Z-130123T1500Z/
WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...ORANGE...
CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON
402 AM EST TUE JAN 22 2013

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
EST WEDNESDAY.

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...PARTICULARLY THE
  HIGHER TERRAIN.

* HAZARD TYPES...VERY COLD WIND CHILLS.

* WIND CHILL READINGS...AS LOW AS NEAR 20 BELOW.

* TIMING...THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL OCCUR
  AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO ABOUT MID MORNING
  WEDNESDAY.

* IMPACTS...THERE WILL BE A HEIGHTENED THREAT FOR FROSTBITE OR
  HYPOTHERMIA FOR THOSE VENTURING OUTSIDE. ANYONE OUTSIDE SHOULD
  LIMIT AREAS OF EXPOSED SKIN AND DRESS IN LAYERS... AND LIMIT YOUR
  TIME OUTSIDE.

* WINDS...WEST 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...2 BELOW TO ABOUT 10 ABOVE ZERO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN THE WIND CHILL INDEX IS
LIKELY TO REACH -15 TO -24 DEGREES FOR AT LEAST 3 HOURS.
FROSTBITE CAN DEVELOP IN JUST 30 MINUTES WITH A WIND CHILL INDEX
OF -20. IF YOU ARE HEADING OUTDOORS...DRESS IN LAYERS AND WEAR A
HAT AND GLOVES.

&&

$$

MAZ024-221715-
/O.EXT.KBOX.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-130122T1800Z/
NANTUCKET MA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...NANTUCKET
402 AM EST TUE JAN 22 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...NANTUCKET 

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END THROUGH ABOUT MID
  DAY.

* IMPACTS...SLICK ROADWAYS AND POOR VISIBILITIES. WITH THE LIGHT
  NATURE OF SNOW...BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH BY ABOUT
  MID DAY.

* TEMPERATURES...AROUND 30.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SNOW AND/OR ICE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE AFFECTED AREAS.  WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE
BELOW FREEZING...MOTORISTS NEED TO BE ESPECIALLY CAREFUL ON
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WHERE SLIPPERY SPOTS CAN EASILY DEVELOP.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1258 PM EST MON JAN 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...

ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING
INTO TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT BITTER COLD TEMPS FOR NEXT
WEEK FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

A WIDE SWATH OF SNOW IS DEVELOPING AND INTENSIFYING ACROSS NY/PA
SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MID-LVL WARM
AND MOIST ISENTROPIC AND ENHANCED ASCENT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHRTWV
DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE BAROCLINIC FLOW. ANTICIPATING THICKENING
AND LOWERING CLOUDS INTO THE AFTN PD WITH INCREASING AREAL EXTENT
OF SNOW WEST TO EAST. ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN
THE DAY. SFC LOW PRES SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG S OF NEW
ENGLAND BY DUSK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

A RATHER TRICKY FORECAST IS IN THE CARDS TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING AS
A NORLUN TROUGH SETS UP. THESE TROUGHS ARE NOTORIOUS FOR SIGNIFICANT
BUSTS EVEN IN THE VERY SHORT TERM.  THE PROBLEM IS THAT THEY OFTEN
RESULT IN VERY NARROW BANDS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL THAT ARE TOO MESOSCALE
IN NATURE FOR THE MODELS TO HANDLE.  THEN THE REST OF THE REGION IS
JUST LEFT WITH A LIGHT SNOWFALL.

IN THIS CASE...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE PROBABLY UNDER DOING THE QPF IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM AS A RESULT OF THEIR LOWER RESOLUTIONS.
MEANWHILE...SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE INDICATING POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALIZED BANDING.  THE PROBLEM IS THAT THEIR UNABLE TO LOCATE
WITH ENOUGH ACCURACY WHERE THESE BANDS WILL SETUP.

AFTER LOOKING AT SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS THEY SEEM TO PIN
TWO AREAS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF HIGHER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.  ONE AREA
SEEMS TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT.  THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE A SECOND AREA THAT
MAY DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST MA.  NOW SOME
MODELS HAVE THAT AREA REMAINING TO OUR NORTH OR NORTHEAST OVER THE
OCEAN...ITS JUST IMPOSSIBLE TO SAY AT THIS POINT BECAUSE ITS A
MESOSCALE SITUATION.  SEVERAL OF THE LATEST NAM MODEL RUNS SHOW VERY
INTENSE SNOWGROWTH OF 40 TO 50 MICROBARS PER SECOND IN THESE
BANDS...SO ITS CRUCIAL WHERE EXACTLY THEY SETUP.

WE DECIDED TO KEEP THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR FAR NORTHEAST MA AND
PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  THESE GENERAL
AREAS SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT RECEIVING A SWATH OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OF SNOW.  AGAIN THOUGH...IF THE BANDS SET UP JUST OFFSHORE OR
TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL ONLY BE A FEW
INCHES.  THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE WAS CERTAINLY NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
UPGRADE TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR THE BOSTON TO
PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR...WE ENDED UP GOING WITH A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THESE LOCATIONS MAY BE IN
BETWEEN THE TWO HEAVIER BANDS.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE REGION...WERE LOOKING AT A GENERAL 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW SO NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.  ITS POSSIBLE LATER
SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO ADD SOME MORE COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY...BUT
THERE IS TIME TO DO THAT.

THE BULK OF THE SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END TUESDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THINGS COULD LAST A BIT LONGER
ACROSS THE NORTH SHORE...AS WELL AS THE CAPE/NANTUCKET WITH SOME
OCEAN ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE.  IT SHOULD TURN QUITE WINDY AS THE STORM
DEPARTS TUE MORNING AND MORE VERY COLD AIR RUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* BITTER COLD TEMPS FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK.
* OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE OUTER CAPE WED & THURS.
* COASTAL STORM BY FRI/SAT BRINGING MORE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
* WEEKEND TEMPS STILL RELATIVELY COLD.

MODELS/CONFIDENCE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON COLD AIR SURGE FOR NEXT WEEK...WITH MODERATE
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE CAPE.
INCREASING CONFIDENCE ON POTENTIAL SYSTEM FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIP INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVER THE WORK WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY
STRENGTHENS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FLOW WITH THE
FIRST MOVING THROUGH THURS FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. ANOTHER ONE
PUSHES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRI AND INTO SNE FRI NIGHT/SAT THE EC
IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SYSTEM HOWEVER THE MODELS ARE IN VERY
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. JUST A FEW
NOTABLE DIFFERENCE AT THE SURFACE.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SITUATED OVER THE NORTHEAST AND DIG PAST
SNE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE COLDEST PORTION OF THE AIRMASS TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA. MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THIS BITTERLY
COLD AIRMASS FOR SOMETIME AND LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE DATA...APPEARS
THAT THIS AIRMASS IS AT LEAST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS AWAY. 850 MB
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM -20C TO -25C AS THE 925MB TEMPS FALL TO -18C
TO - 22C. BELIEVE MOS CONTINUES TO BE TO WARM FOR THE TUES NIGHT
INTO THURS TIMEFRAME...SO HAVE UNDERCUT THEM AGAIN A FEW DEGREES.
STILL FAVOR THE EC MOS AND HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS ACCORDINGLY.
BELIEVE THIS IS STILL A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND TEMPS WILL STILL
BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER...ALTHOUGH NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR RECORD
TEMPS. THEREFORE IT APPEARS THE LAST TIME THAT A COLD AIRMASS OF
THIS MAGNITUDE OCCURRED ON JAN 24 2011.

GUSTY WINDS ARE PROBABLE WITH GOOD MIXING AND JET STREAK MOVING OVER
THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. BECAUSE OF THE BITTER COLD TEMPS
AND THE GUSTY WINDS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP ESP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A WINDCHILL
ADV WILL BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS ACROSS S NH AND NORTHERN MASS.

WITH THE VERY COLD AIRMASS MOVING OVER THE WARM OCEAN WATERS...LAPSE
RATES WILL STEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY. EXPECT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS AND IMPACT THE OUTER CAPE ESP WED INTO
THURS. EXPECT SOMEWHERE BETWEEN A TRACE TO A HALF OF AN INCH OF
SNOWFALL TO ACCUMULATE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS THE MAIN FORCE
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS THERE ARE MANY
FACTORS THAT CAN CHANGE BUT MODELS HAVE LATCHED ONTO A LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE EC MODEL WAS MORE WEST ITS PREV RUN HAS NOW SIDED MORE TOWARDS
THE GFS MODEL IN BRINGING THE LOW PRESSURE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE TRACKING THIS SYSTEM MORE ACROSS
ACK/BENCHMARK SO WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
SYSTEM.

BELIEVE PRECIP WILL NOT OVERSPREAD UNTIL THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY AS THE MOISTURE WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO OVERRUN THE DRY AIR.
BECAUSE OF THIS SIGNIFICANT COLD SPELL...BELIEVE PRECIP WILL
INITIALLY BE ALL SNOW AT THE ONSET AND MAY DROP SEVERAL INCHES. EC
TRIES TO BRING IN ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS INTO SAT WHILE THE GFS KEEPS
US THE COLDEST. OVERALL BLENDED THE TWO MODELS TOGETHER TO GET A
SIGNIFICANT TREND IN THE FORECAST. HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT
ALMOST ALL OF SNE WILL SEE SNOW ACCUMS PERHAPS ADV LEVEL...WITH THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE. IF THIS
SYSTEM PLAYS OUT...A FEW LOCATIONS MAY PERHAPS SEE ABOVE 6 INCHES.
RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE IS TO LOW AND WILL WANT TO WAIT AND SEE IF
MODELS HAVE BETTER CONSISTENCY.

SUNDAY...
APPEARS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
TEMPS ARE HARD TO PINPOINT AS EC IS SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER THAN THE
GFS. REGARDLESS TEMP TREND LOOK TO REMAIN COLD FOR SOMETIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

INTO LATE TUESDAY /0Z WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

AS SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPS S OF NEW ENGLAND...SNOW WILL INCREASE IN
AREAL EXTENT...INITIALLY IMPACTING TERMINALS S OF I-90 PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT...AND THEN SHIFTING FOCUS ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF NEW
ENGLAND INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

DURING THE TRANSITION...BANDING AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE EASTERN HALF OF NEW ENGLAND WHICH CAN
BE ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 MILES IN WIDTH. DETAILED SPECIFICS
REMAIN UNCERTAIN...AND THUS HAVE GONE WITH A CONSERVATIVE
FORECAST IN PREVAILING LOW IFR. WHILE THE BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW MAY
BE UNCERTAIN...HAVE CONFIDENCE THAT A BREADTH OF SNOW SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED.

AM ASSURED THAT BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS
TUESDAY THAT TERMINALS WITHIN RI...E MA...AND S NH WILL
SPORATICALLY SEE HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES WITH 1/2 TO 1/4 SM +SN AND
VV002. AGAIN...EXACT HOUR-BY-HOUR SPECIFICS ARE UNCERTAIN.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE DURING THE TRANSITION OF THE LOW INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WITH ITS EXIT THEREAFTER...WILL SEE
INCREASING W/NW FLOW WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS PSBL /ESPECIALLY FOR
TERMINALS CLOSER TO SHORE/. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE
WITH THE USHERANCE OF FASTER W/NW FLOW.

KBOS TAF...
AT THIS TIME...THE PERIOD OF FAVORABLE BANDING EXTENDS BETWEEN
05-13Z TUESDAY. IT IS DURING THIS TIME THAT CONDITIONS AT THE
TERMINAL MAY BECOME VLIFR.

KBDL TAF...
AM LEANING TOWARDS THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW TO REMAIN EAST OF THE
TERMINAL. THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO SPREAD OVER
THE TERMINAL LATE TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO AROUND MIDNIGHT.
THEREAFTER GRADUAL CLEARING SHOULD PROCEED.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR. OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUE NEAR CAPE COD...KEEPING CIGS AT MVFR.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR TO START WITH CIG/VSBY CONDITIONS LOWERING TO
AT LEAST MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR IN DEVELOPING SNOW LATE FRI MORNING
LASTING WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

REST OF TONIGHT...HAVE TRANSITIONED ALL GALE WARNINGS TO SCA AS WIND
GUSTS HAVE DIMINISHED TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS ACROSS MOST WATERS.

MONDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE WATERS. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD
DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...SOME
SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP AT LEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND REDUCE VISIBILITIES.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN AS A LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE WATERS. WILL LIKELY
NEED AT LEAST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...BUT THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTING UP TO 25-30 KNOTS ESPECIALLY ON
THE OUTER WATERS. CONTINUED FREEZING SPRAY AND OCEAN EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS UNTIL WINDS DIMINISH ON THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO
RESPOND BEFORE DROPPING BELOW SCA LATE THURS.

FRIDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND...BRINGING SNOW ON FRIDAY. THE PATH OF THE STORM
CENTER LOOKS TO BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...WHICH WOULD KEEP WINDS
LIGHT UNTIL IT MOVES PAST. WINDS SHOULD THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS OF 25-30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 5-9
FEET. THERE WILL AGAIN BE ISSUES OF FREEZING SPRAY AND OCEAN-
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...

BOS        LOW MIN     LOW MAX
JAN 22     -3F 1888    13F 1888
JAN 23     -6F 1882    13F 1882
JAN 24    -13F 1882     8F 1907

PVD        LOW MIN     LOW MAX
JAN 22    -10F 1976    15F 2000
JAN 23    -13F 1976    10F 1976
JAN 24     -9F 1907     9F 1907

BDL        LOW MIN     LOW MAX
JAN 22    -26F 1961    13F 2000
JAN 23    -19F 1961     7F 1976
JAN 24    -19F 1961     9F 1907

ORH        LOW MIN     LOW MAX
JAN 22    -10F 1976     9F 2000
JAN 23    -13F 1976     7F 1976
JAN 24    -14F 1948     4F 1907

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MAZ005-013>017-020.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
     TUESDAY MORNING FOR MAZ006-007-018-019-021>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN
CLIMATE...WFO BOX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
439 AM EST MON JAN 21 2013

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>004-008>012-026-NHZ011-012-015-220945-
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-CHESHIRE NH-
EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-
439 AM EST MON JAN 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT...CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITY THAT A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AREAS
NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. THIS STORM
MAY BRING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL TO THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MAZ006-007-018-019-021>024-220945-
WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-
EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-
NANTUCKET MA-
439 AM EST MON JAN 21 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WATCH.

THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITY THAT A WIND ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED ON TUESDAY FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITY THAT A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AREAS
NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. THIS STORM
MAY BRING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL TO THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MAZ005-013>017-020-RIZ001>008-220945-
CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-
WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-
BLOCK ISLAND RI-
439 AM EST MON JAN 21 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
10 AM EST TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND
AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITY THAT A WIND ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED ON TUESDAY FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITY THAT A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AREAS
NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. THIS STORM
MAY BRING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL TO THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256-220945-
CAPE COD BAY-NANTUCKET SOUND-VINEYARD SOUND-BUZZARDS BAY-
RHODE ISLAND SOUND-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK NATIONAL
MARINE SANCTUARY-MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD AND
NANTUCKET-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT TO
20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND-
439 AM EST MON JAN 21 2013

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS
AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WATCH.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY BETWEEN MONDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITY OF NORTHWEST GALES ON
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ230-236-220945-
BOSTON HARBOR-NARRAGANSETT BAY-
439 AM EST MON JAN 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS
AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.