Small Craft Advisory 30, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

666 
WHUS71 KBOX 051146
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
646 AM EST TUE MAR 5 2013

...A STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

.A STRONG OCEAN STORM WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRONG
WINDS AND HIGH SEAS BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY LASTING THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A DANGEROUS STORM FOR
MARINERS.

ANZ256-052000-
/O.EXP.KBOX.SC.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-130305T1200Z/
/O.CON.KBOX.SR.A.0003.130307T0000Z-130308T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT
TO 20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND-
646 AM EST TUE MAR 5 2013

...STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 7 AM EST THIS MORNING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  45 KT. SEAS 14 TO 19 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A STORM WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF STORM FORCE WINDS OF
48 TO 63 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC
TIMING AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN.  IT IS INTENDED TO
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO
CONSIDER ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

ANZ250-052000-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-130306T0000Z/
/O.CON.KBOX.SR.A.0003.130307T0000Z-130308T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
646 AM EST TUE MAR 5 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  45 KT. SEAS 21 TO 26 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

A STORM WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF STORM FORCE WINDS OF
48 TO 63 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC
TIMING AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN.  IT IS INTENDED TO
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO
CONSIDER ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

ANZ251-052000-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-130305T1700Z/
/O.CON.KBOX.SR.A.0003.130307T0000Z-130308T0000Z/
MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
646 AM EST TUE MAR 5 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...
...STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  40 KT. SEAS 17 TO 22 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

A STORM WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF STORM FORCE WINDS OF
48 TO 63 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC
TIMING AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN.  IT IS INTENDED TO
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO
CONSIDER ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

ANZ254-255-052000-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-130306T0000Z/
/O.CON.KBOX.SR.A.0003.130307T0000Z-130308T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD
AND NANTUCKET-
646 AM EST TUE MAR 5 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  45 KT. SEAS 19 TO 24 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

A STORM WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF STORM FORCE WINDS OF
48 TO 63 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC
TIMING AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN.  IT IS INTENDED TO
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO
CONSIDER ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

ANZ232-052000-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-130305T1700Z/
/O.CON.KBOX.SR.A.0003.130307T0000Z-130308T0000Z/
NANTUCKET SOUND-
646 AM EST TUE MAR 5 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...
...STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  45 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

A STORM WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF STORM FORCE WINDS OF
48 TO 63 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC
TIMING AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN.  IT IS INTENDED TO
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO
CONSIDER ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

ANZ231-052000-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-130305T1700Z/
/O.CON.KBOX.SR.A.0003.130307T0000Z-130308T0000Z/
CAPE COD BAY-
646 AM EST TUE MAR 5 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...
...STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  45 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

A STORM WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF STORM FORCE WINDS OF
48 TO 63 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC
TIMING AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN.  IT IS INTENDED TO
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO
CONSIDER ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

ANZ235-237-052000-
/O.CON.KBOX.SR.A.0003.130307T0000Z-130308T0000Z/
RHODE ISLAND SOUND-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
646 AM EST TUE MAR 5 2013

...STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

A STORM WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF STORM FORCE WINDS OF
48 TO 63 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC
TIMING AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN.  IT IS INTENDED TO
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO
CONSIDER ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

ANZ233-234-052000-
/O.CON.KBOX.SR.A.0003.130307T0000Z-130308T0000Z/
VINEYARD SOUND-BUZZARDS BAY-
646 AM EST TUE MAR 5 2013

...STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  40 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

A STORM WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF STORM FORCE WINDS OF
48 TO 63 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC
TIMING AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN.  IT IS INTENDED TO
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO
CONSIDER ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

ANZ236-052000-
/O.CON.KBOX.SR.A.0003.130307T0000Z-130308T0000Z/
NARRAGANSETT BAY-
646 AM EST TUE MAR 5 2013

...STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  35 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A STORM WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF STORM FORCE WINDS OF
48 TO 63 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC
TIMING AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN.  IT IS INTENDED TO
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO
CONSIDER ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

ANZ230-052000-
/O.CON.KBOX.SR.A.0003.130307T0000Z-130308T0000Z/
BOSTON HARBOR-
646 AM EST TUE MAR 5 2013

...STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  30 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

A STORM WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF STORM FORCE WINDS OF
48 TO 63 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC
TIMING AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN.  IT IS INTENDED TO
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO
CONSIDER ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
409 AM EST TUE MAR 5 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRES IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A STRONG OCEAN STORM WILL
IMPACT THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GREATEST IMPACTS
APPEAR TO BE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS RI AND
EASTERN MA...WHERE HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE. COASTAL FLOODING AND
DANGEROUS SEAS ARE THREAT AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW S OF NOVA SCOTIA MOVES SE TODAY AS WEAK
RIDGING MOVES IN FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS ONE
MORE SPOKE OF ENERGY FROM THE N WHICH IS FORECAST TO ROTATE
AROUND THE LOW TOWARD SNE. SO WHILE MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
DRY...STILL CANT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FROM SE
NH THROUGH E MA WHERE THEMOST CLOUD COVER WILL BE. TO THE
WEST...PTSUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. USED THE BIAS CORRECTED NAM
GUIDANCE FOR MAXES TODAY WHICH YIELDS SIMILAR TEMPS TO LAST FEW
DAYS...MID/UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.
GUSTY WIND ACROSS E COASTAL MA AND CAPE/ISLANDS WILL BE
DIMINISHING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
SFC RIDGING RETREATS NWD AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO VEER TO THE
EAST AND INCREASE LATE TONIGHT WELL N OF DEVELOPING LOW PRES TO
THE S. THIS BRINGS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING AND ALSO SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW. MIN TEMPS MID/UPPER 20S HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOWER 30S
ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY...
NOT MANY DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS THROUGH WED AS COASTAL
LOW EMERGES OFF THE VA COAST. LEADING EDGE OF HEAVIER PRECIP
WILL REMAIN S OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY...BUT DO EXPECT AREAS
OF LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN DEVELOPING DUE TO INCREASING E/NE INFLOW
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET LIFTS N FROM THE MID ATLC COAST. BECOMING
WINDY ALONG THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPS
WITH MAXES UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HEADLINES...

* HEAVY WET SNOW RISK FOR PARTS OF THE REGION WED NIGHT INTO THU NGT
* COASTAL FLOODING/BEACH EROSION & DANGEROUS SEAS LIKELY
* DRIER AND QUIETER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER ENOUGH SPREAD FOR A VERY DIFFICULT
FORECAST WED THROUGH FRI REGARDING OCEAN STORM. TWO MODEL CAMPS
HERE WITH DOMESTIC MODELS /GFS-NAM/ FARTHER NORTH-CLOSER TO THE
COAST WITH VERY HEAVY PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
IN FACT THE GFS HAS OVER 7 INCHES OF STORM TOTAL LIQUID QPF ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MA! THE NAM HAS JUST OVER 3 INCHES. THIS FARTHER NORTH
SOLUTION IS ALSO WARMER ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH
HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR. MEANWHILE THE INTERNATIONAL MODELS
/ECMWF-UKMET-GGEM AND NOW THE 03Z SREF/ ARE MORE
SUPPRESSED/OFFSHORE WITH HEAVY QPF CONFINED TO RI AND SOUTHEAST
MA. HOWEVER THIS FARTHER/OFSHR SOLUTION IS COLDER WITH THE RISK
FOR HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS NE CT- RI AND EASTERN MA!

MODELS APPEAR TO BE STRUGGLING WITH THE ANOMALOUS HIGH AMPLITUDE
REX- BLOCK OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA/NEW ENGLAND. NOW DESPITE DOMESTIC
MODEL SIMULATIONS SAYING EXCESSIVE QPF FOR INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...PATTERN RECOGNITION AND AMPLITUDE OF BLOCK PATTERN
INDICATES A RED FLAG FOR A MORE SUPPRESSED/OFSHR/COLDER SOLUTION
SIMILAR TO THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET AND GGEM. THIS SOLUTION PLACES A
SHARP QPF GRADIENT ACROSS EASTERN CT INTO NE MA. THUS A SOUTHEAST
SHIFT OF 50-75 MILE PLACES THE HEAVY QPF GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST.
HENCE BIG BUST POTENTIAL HERE.

NO TWO EVENTS ARE IDENTICAL BUT THIS LOOKS A LOT LIKE 10 FEB 2010
SNOW BUST. DESPITE THIS OCEAN STORM EVOLVING INTO A VERY LARGE
CIRCULATION/FIRE HOSE ALL MODEL GUIDANCE TRACKS MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION WELL SOUTH NEW ENGLAND...ABOUT 36N LATITUDE! THUS
HEAVIEST PERSISTENT BANDED QPF SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE OR ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. IN FACT 00Z ECMWF AND UKMET CONFINE HEAVY QPF
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM BDL-ORH-MHT...WHICH FITS THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN. STAKES ARE ALWAYS HIGH WHENEVER SHARP QPF AXIS CROSSES
THE AREA.

GIVEN PATTERN RECOGNITION AND STRENGTH OF BLOCK WILL LEAN TOWARD
THE MORE SUPPRESSED/COLDER UKMET/ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLES ECENS.
THIS FOCUSES THE HEAVY SNOW /6-12 INCHES POSSIBLY HIGHER/ THREAT
OVER NE CT-RI AND EASTERN MA.

HOWEVER GIVEN MODEL SPREAD HERE REMAINS LARGE WE CAN NOT
COMPLETELY DISMISS A WARMER AND WETTER EVENT PER GFS/NAM/GEFS AND
ALSO A MORE OFFSHORE TRACK WITH HEAVY QPF JUST SWIPING THE COAST.
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND TIME RANGE HERE WE NEED TO KEEP ALL THREE
POSSIBILITIES IN PLAY WITH PROBABILITIES SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR THE
COLDER/SNOWIER SOLUTION ALONG WITH JUST A GLANCING BLOW
SCENARIO...TO LOWER PROBABILITIES OF A WARMER/WETTER EVENT.

DEFINITELY CONCERNED REGARDING THE COLDER SOLUTION WITH HEAVY SNOW
POTENTIAL IN THE POPULATED I-95 CORRIDOR OF RI AND EASTERN MA.
HIGHER UNCERTAINTY DOWN TOWARD CAPE COD GIVEN MARGINAL BLYR TEMPS
WITH ONSHORE FLOW. HEAVY WET SNOW AND STRONG WINDS POSE A RISK FOR
POWER OUTAGES.  HOWEVER CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME FOR
A 4TH-5TH PERIOD WATCH. THUS STILL SOME TIME TO NAIL DOWN THE EXACT
THREAT/RISK AREAS. AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN SURFACE AND MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION TRACK WELL SOUTH OF 40N!

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
  LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
  MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
  HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE TODAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT
AND WED.

MAINLY VFR TODAY WITH LOW PROB OF MVFR ON THE OUTER CAPE. EXPECT
CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY IFR DURING WED AS
INCREASING LOW LEVEL EAST FLOW BRINGS MARINE CLOUDS INTO THE
REGION. FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE ON LOWERING TREND BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND WED
BUT NOT CONFIDENT. SOME LIGHT SNOW/RAIN POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
BUT MORE LIKELY DURING WED ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP WILL REMAIN LIGHT
WITH HEAVIER PRECIP S OF THE REGION THROUGH LATE WED. E/NE WINDS
INCREASING DURING WED...WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF MVFR CIGS TONIGHT.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

LOW CONFIDENCE. STILL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING OCEAN STORM WHICH
COULD BRING HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS. BEST CHANCE FOR IFR VSBYS
WOULD BE IN ANY SNOWFALL PARTICULARLY LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU/THU
NIGHT...BUT LINGERING INTO FRI. MVFR VSBYS IN ANY RAIN...WHICH MAY
BE ACROSS CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
SE COASTAL PLAIN.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IMPROVING CONDITIONS. VFR LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE EASTERN WATERS BEFORE DIMINISHING AND BECOMING N THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. WINDS VEER TO THE NE THIS
EVENING AND BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING
WED WHILE BECOMING MORE E. GALE FORCE GUSTS COULD DEVELOP BY
MIDDAY WED OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS SPREADING NWD AND INCREASING
TO 40 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STRONG OCEAN STORM WILL EXIT THE MID ATLC COAST AND THEN STRADDLE
36N OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER STORM WILL HAVE A LARGE CIRCULATION
COMBINED WITH STRONG HIGH PRES OVER CANADA. THUS HIGH CONFIDENCE
FOR NE GALES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OCEAN WATERS WITH A
LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF STORM FORCE GUSTS. LONG FETCH WILL YIELD
DANGEROUS SEAS OF 20-25 KT ON THE OPEN OCEAN WATERS...POSSIBLY
HIGHER. VSBY REDUCED IN RAIN AND SNOW.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY WITH LINGERING HIGH SEAS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CONCERN IS GROWING ON A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE MA EAST COAST WITH
BEACH EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY ON THE DEGREE OF IMPACT SINCE MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A
SIGNIFICANT VARIATION IN TRACK SOLUTIONS AND HENCE THE POSITIONING
OF THE STRONGEST SURFACE PRES GRADIENT AND LOW LEVEL EASTERLY JET.
THE TREND OF ALL MODELS HAS BEEN TOWARD THE NORTH...ALBEIT JUST A
SLIGHT NUDGE NORTH BY THE ECMWF...WHICH HAS A STRONG TRACK RECORD
WITH MAJOR EAST COAST STORMS. BOTH ETSS AND ESTOFS MODELS BRING THE
SURGE TO NEAR 2.5 FT FOR THE THU MORNING HIGH TIDE. ALTHOUGH BOTH
THE ETSS AND ESTOFS USE THE OPERATIONAL GFS AS THE ATMOSPHERIC
DRIVER...THE VALUES SEEM CLOSE TO WHAT ONE MIGHT EXPECT IF THE ECMWF
WAS THE ATMOSPHERIC MODEL DRIVING THE SURGE MODELS. HEDGING THAT THE
ECMWF MIGHT NUDGE STILL A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH...HAVE MODESTLY UPPED
THE GUIDANCE FOR A SURGE BETWEEN 2.5 AND 3 FT FOR MOST MA EAST
COASTAL LOCATIONS. GIVEN A PERSISTENT AND RELATIVELY STRONG NE
FLOW...BELIEVE THE SURGE WILL REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME THRU WED EVENING
AND RELAX ONLY A LITTLE BY THE FRI MORNING HIGH TIDE...WHICH MAY
PROVE NEARLY AS PROBLEMATIC AS THE THU MORNING HIGH TIDE. EACH TIDE
CYCLE WILL BECOME MORE PROBLEMATIC AS SURGE WILL BE UNABLE TO DRAIN
SEAWARD GIVEN THE PROLONG ONSHORE WINDS.

WITH REGARD TO SEAS...JUST NUDGED THE WAVE WATCH VALUES UP A COUPLE
FEET FOR THE WATERS EAST OF MA TO YIELD NEARLY 25 FT JUST OFFSHORE
BY THU MORNING AND ONLY VERY SLOWLY BEGIN TO RELAX THEM DURING FRI.
ANTICIPATE THAT WE MAY SEE 10 TO 12 SEC PERIODS BY THU MORNING AND
PERHAPS 12 TO 14 SEC PERIODS BY FRI MORNING. THUS ANTICIPATE HIGH
ENERGY WAVES THAT COULD PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE OVERWASH AND POSSIBLY
SOME DAMAGE. FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...THE
SEAS LOOK CONSIDERABLY TOO LOW FOR THE EXPECTED SURFACE WIND
MAGNITUDE AND FETCH. RAISED THOSE VALUES GENERALLY BY 4 TO 7 FT.

RUNNING OUR TOTAL WATER LEVEL PRODUCT AND FACTORING BOTH STORM TIDE
AND WAVES IN THE MIX GIVES MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG
A NUMBER OF EAST AND NE FACING SHORELINES FROM SALISBURY TO
NANTUCKET AND MARTHAS VINEYARD. THIS STORM DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING FOR MARTHAS VINEYARD
THAN THE FEB 9 EVENT GIVEN THE EXPECTED ORIENTATION OF THE SURFACE
WIND FIELD. AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN FOR MUCH OF THE MA EAST COAST IS
THE EXISTING VULNERABILITY FROM THE FEB 9 EVENT.

ALTHOUGH WE ARE RATHER HESITANT AT THIS POINT TO JUMP ON THE GFS AND
NAM SOLUTIONS AS THE MODELS OF CHOICE...A SOLUTION CLOSE TO THOSE
MODELS WOULD PRODUCE A DEVASTATING COASTAL FLOOD EVENT WITH MAJOR
TO EXTREME BEACH EROSION. THAT IS NOT WHAT WE CONSIDER TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS POINT...BUT WE WILL BE WATCHING TRENDS
VERY CLOSELY. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE AND UNCERTAINTY HERE WILL HOLD
OFF ON COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES FOR THE MOMENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ231-232-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KJC/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA
MARINE...KJC/NOCERA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
417 AM EST TUE MAR 5 2013

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-060930-
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-
WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-
WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
417 AM EST TUE MAR 5 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT...CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY...THEN
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES EAST. HEAVY SNOW MAY IMPACT PARTS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH ON
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND LOCATION OF RAIN-SNOW LINE. SNOWFALL MAY BE
HEAVY AND WET POSSIBLY RESULTING IN POWER OUTAGES.

STRONG WINDS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS WHERE WIND
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED SOMETIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY.

WITH THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WINDS AND HIGH SEAS...AT
LEAST SOME BEACH EROSION ALONG THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS COAST IS
EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY HIGH
TIDE CYCLES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256-060930-
BOSTON HARBOR-CAPE COD BAY-NANTUCKET SOUND-VINEYARD SOUND-
BUZZARDS BAY-RHODE ISLAND SOUND-NARRAGANSETT BAY-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK NATIONAL
MARINE SANCTUARY-MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD AND
NANTUCKET-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT TO
20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND-
417 AM EST TUE MAR 5 2013

...STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS
AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   STORM WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.