Small Craft Advisory 29, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

747 
WHUS71 KBOX 050303
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1003 PM EST MON MAR 4 2013

...A STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

.CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A STRONG OCEAN STORM TO IMPACT THE
WATERS. THIS STORM WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS
AND HIGH SEAS BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY.
THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A DANGEROUS STORM FOR
MARINERS.

ANZ230-051115-
/O.EXP.KBOX.SC.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-130305T0300Z/
/O.EXA.KBOX.SC.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-130305T0600Z/
/O.CON.KBOX.SR.A.0003.130307T0000Z-130308T0000Z/
BOSTON HARBOR-
1003 PM EST MON MAR 4 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY...
...STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY.

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  45 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

A STORM WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF STORM FORCE WINDS OF
48 TO 63 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC
TIMING AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN.  IT IS INTENDED TO
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO
CONSIDER ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

ANZ236-051115-
/O.EXP.KBOX.SC.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-130305T0300Z/
/O.CON.KBOX.SR.A.0003.130307T0000Z-130308T0000Z/
NARRAGANSETT BAY-
1003 PM EST MON MAR 4 2013

...STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 
  KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A STORM WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF STORM FORCE WINDS OF
48 TO 63 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC
TIMING AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN.  IT IS INTENDED TO
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO
CONSIDER ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

ANZ231-251-051115-
/O.EXT.KBOX.SC.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-130305T1100Z/
/O.CON.KBOX.SR.A.0003.130307T0000Z-130308T0000Z/
CAPE COD BAY-MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
1003 PM EST MON MAR 4 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY...
...STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  50 KT. SEAS 17 TO 22 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

A STORM WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF STORM FORCE WINDS OF
48 TO 63 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC
TIMING AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN.  IT IS INTENDED TO
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO
CONSIDER ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

ANZ232>235-237-051115-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-130305T0600Z/
/O.CON.KBOX.SR.A.0003.130307T0000Z-130308T0000Z/
NANTUCKET SOUND-VINEYARD SOUND-BUZZARDS BAY-RHODE ISLAND SOUND-
BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
1003 PM EST MON MAR 4 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
TUESDAY...
...STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  50 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

A STORM WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF STORM FORCE WINDS OF
48 TO 63 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC
TIMING AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN.  IT IS INTENDED TO
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO
CONSIDER ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

ANZ250-051115-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-130306T0000Z/
/O.CON.KBOX.SR.A.0003.130307T0000Z-130308T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
1003 PM EST MON MAR 4 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
TUESDAY...
...STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  55 KT. SEAS 23 TO 28 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

A STORM WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF STORM FORCE WINDS OF
48 TO 63 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC
TIMING AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN.  IT IS INTENDED TO
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO
CONSIDER ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

ANZ254-255-051115-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-130306T0000Z/
/O.CON.KBOX.SR.A.0003.130307T0000Z-130308T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD
AND NANTUCKET-
1003 PM EST MON MAR 4 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
TUESDAY...
...STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  50 KT. SEAS 23 TO 28 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

A STORM WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF STORM FORCE WINDS OF
48 TO 63 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC
TIMING AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN.  IT IS INTENDED TO
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO
CONSIDER ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

ANZ256-051115-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-130305T0900Z/
/O.CON.KBOX.SR.A.0003.130307T0000Z-130308T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT
TO 20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND-
1003 PM EST MON MAR 4 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
TUESDAY...
...STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHEAST WINDS 30 TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  55 KT. SEAS 16 TO 21 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

A STORM WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF STORM FORCE WINDS OF
48 TO 63 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC
TIMING AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN.  IT IS INTENDED TO
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO
CONSIDER ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
428 PM EST MON MAR 4 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE OVER THROUGH THE EVENING. AN OCEAN
STORM MAY STILL BRING SOME IMPACTS TO THE REGION BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO FRIDAY. COASTAL
FLOODING...MARINE ISSUES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
ARE THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
4PM UPDATE...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SN NH AND NE MASS WILL CONTINUE
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
ROTATING THROUGH. GUSTY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT... PESKY UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE ACROSS THE GULF
OF MAINE. THIS LOW WILL ROTATE A SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT DRIVING THE FLOW TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION. EXPECT SCT
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ESP ACROSS SN NH AND THE EAST HALF OF
MASS WHERE THE BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE IS LOCATED. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO SLACK OFF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...

OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL START OFF THE MORNING ON TUESDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE TO A NORTH/NORTHEAST DIRECTION. MAIN
FORCING IS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS DRIVING FORCE MAY BRING A TRACE OF SNOW TO
THE CAPE AND PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES INTO THE INTERIOR.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN AS THEY HAVE BEEN...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S.

TUESDAY NIGHT..

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER THE
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO LINGER INTO NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE
FOR SCT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENTLY NOT THINKING OF A
LOT OF ACCUM...JUST A TRACE TO NO MORE THEN AN INCH IN HIGHER
TERRAIN. LOW TEMPS WILL BE MILDER...DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 30S WITH
UPPER 20S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HEADLINES...

* STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MID WEEK STORM.
* SIGNIFICANT IMPACT STILL LIKELY FOR MARINE COMMUNITY/BEACH EROSION
* DRIER AND QUIETER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
04/12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH SYNOPTIC
SCALE BLOCKING PATTERN AND THEREFORE CONTINUES TO SHOW A WIDE
RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES IN THE MID-LATE WEEK STORM. THE TWO
EXTREMES ARE BASICALLY THE ECMWF/ECENS...WHICH HAS A MUCH STRONGER
BLOCKING HIGH...AND IS MOSTLY A MISS SAVE FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH COAST...AND THE GFS/GEFS WHICH HAS A WEAKER BLOCK /LOW PRES
CLOSER TO THE BENCHMARK/ AND WOULD BRING A MIXED BAG OF
PRECIPITATION /MORE LIKELY FOR HEAVY SNOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS/.
NAM/CMC GUIDANCE ARE BOTH IN THE MIDDLE. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
HERE...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH A DEFERENCE TOWARD THE LOWER
IMPACT ECMWF FOR THIS FORECAST ALTHOUGH THE HIGHER IMPACT SCENARIO
IS STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE REASONING HERE IS THAT ECMWF
HAS GENERALLY HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON THE VERY MERIDIONAL
/BLOCKING/ FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH ATLANTIC OVER
SEVERAL DAYS...SO AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE
ON THE DEEPENING HIGH PRES OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. ALSO...MODEL QPF FIELDS ON THE GFS/GEFS ARE INTERESTING
GIVEN BEST MID LVL DYNAMICS WOULD LIKELY BE WELL S OF THE QPF
BULLSEYE ITS SHOWING. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL
TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THIS COULD BE EITHER A LOW OR
HIGH IMPACT EVENT BASED SOLELY ON THE MODEL STORM TRACK.

DETAILS...

WED THRU FRI...
THE KEY FOR THE MID TERM IS THE TRACK OF COASTAL LOW PRES WHICH
COULD HAVE EITHER MINOR...OR POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
ON SRN NEW ENGLAND.

UNCERTAINTY...
AS MENTIONED IN THE OVERVIEW ABOVE...WILL BE LEANING CLOSER TO
THE LOWER IMPACT ECMWF /WHICH HAS MADE A SLIGHT SHIFT N/ WITH THIS
FORECAST. HOWEVER...SHOULD THE TREND LEAN CLOSER TO THE GFS WITH
TIME...A HIGHER IMPACT STORM IS LIKELY. AT THIS TIME...GIVEN THE
PREFERENCE...THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR IMPACTS WOULD BE CLOSER TO THE
SOUTH COAST. HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR A MORE
SIGNIFICANT EVENT OF THE N TRENDS CONTINUES. GIVEN THE WIDE
ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS...THIS REMAINS A LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE
FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION...
ONCE AGAIN...GIVEN THE WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES HERE AND
DIFFERENCES IN THE STORM TRACK PRECIP IS STILL AB IT OF A
QUESTION MARK. THE COLDER ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SOME SNOWFALL...BUT WITH A FOCUS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...WITH
POTENTIALLY LITTLE TO NO SNOW TOWARD SRN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
HOWEVER...THE COLD AIR DRAINAGE PROVIDED BY THE BLOCKING TO THE N
IS NOT A COLD AS ONE WOULD LIKE TO SEE IN A TYPICAL SRN NEW
ENGLAND COASTAL STORM...WHICH WOULD LOWER RATIOS. THE GFS...WOULD
SUGGEST MUCH MORE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE BOARD...BUT WITH A MORE
SIGNIFICANT MARINE INFLUENCE THERE WOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST AND COASTAL PLAIN WITH MORE SNOW INLAND. THIS WOULD
POTENTIALLY BE WARNING LEVEL SNOWS FOR PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR.
SO ESSENTIALLY...WILL BE FOCUSING HIGHEST POPS FOR THE S
COAST...WITH A POTENTIAL RAIN SNOW MIX /TRANSITION TO SNOW IN THE
INTERIOR/.

WINDS...
GUIDANCE DOES SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ELY 50-70 KT /DEPENDING
ON THE MODEL OF CHOICE/ H92 LLJ. THE ECMWF IS ON THE WEAKER
END...HOWEVER WITH SOME MIXING...COULD SEE AT LEAST WIND ADVISORY
LVL WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE E AND SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS...PARTICULARLY WED NIGHT INTO THU.

SEE THE COASTAL FLOOD SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION
REGARDING THE COASTAL FLOODING POTENTIAL WITH THIS STORM.

SAT THRU MON...
FOLLOWING THE EXIT OF THE COASTAL STORM...STRONG HIGH PRES
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LVL RIDGING BUILDS OVER WITH MOSTLY DRY WX AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
  LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
  MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
  HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE DAY. MAY START TO
LOWER LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST HALF
OF REGION PER OCEAN EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
IFR CONDITIONS. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIE DOWN LATE TONIGHT
AND REMAIN AROUND 10KTS TOMORROW. VFR MIX WITH MVFR TOMORROW IN
ISOLATES SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MOD PROB FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS
LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. LOW PROB ON IFR OVERNIGHT.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
STILL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING OCEAN STORM WHICH COULD BRING A MIXED
BAG OF PRECIPITATION AND STRONG WINDS. BEST CHANCE FOR IFR VSBYS
WOULD BE IN ANY SNOWFALL PARTICULARLY LATE WED NIGHT INTO
THU...BUT LINGERING INTO FRI. MVFR VSBYS IN ANY RAIN...WHICH MAY
MIX IN ALONG THE S COAST. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SE
COASTAL PLAIN.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS.  VFR LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY.

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THE SCA WINDS ON THE WATERS
INTO THIS EVENING WITH NW GUSTS TO 25-30 KT. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH STRONGEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT SHIFTING TO THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. SEAS WILL LINGER
ABOVE 5 FT FOR THE EASTERN OUT WATERS THROUGHOUT TUESDAY SO HAVE
EXTENDED SCA. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL DIE DOWN BY TOMORROW.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG OCEAN STORMS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SWELLS
ACROSS THE WATERS. EXPECT SEAS TO BEGIN TO BUILD LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THERE IS A STRONG POTENTIAL FOR A VERY SIGNIFICANT AND LONG
DURATION MARINE EVENT. A STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR STORM
FORCE WIND POTENTIAL.

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL COMBINE WITH LOW
PRESSURE EMERGING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A LIKELIHOOD FOR A PERIOD OF EXTENDED
NORTHEAST HIGH END GALES TO STORM FORCE WINDS. LONG FETCH WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN 20 TO 25 FOOT SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
OUTER WATERS.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY WITH LINGERING HIGH SEAS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CONCERN IS GROWING ON A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE MA EAST COAST WITH
BEACH EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY ON THE DEGREE OF IMPACT SINCE THE COMPUTER MODEL
GUIDANCE DEPICTS A SIGNIFICANT VARIATION IN TRACK SOLUTIONS AND
HENCE THE POSITIONING OF THE STRONGEST SURFACE PRES GRADIENT AND LOW
LEVEL EASTERLY JET. THE TREND OF ALL MODELS HAS BEEN TOWARD THE
NORTH...ALBEIT JUST A SLIGHT NUDGE NORTH BY THE ECMWF...WHICH HAS A
STRONG TRACK RECORD WITH MAJOR EAST COAST STORMS. BOTH ETSS AND
ESTOFS MODELS BRING THE SURGE TO NEAR 2.5 FT FOR THE THU MORNING
HIGH TIDE. ALTHOUGH BOTH THE ETSS AND ESTOFS USE THE OPERATIONAL GFS
AS THE ATMOSPHERIC DRIVER...THE VALUES SEEM CLOSE TO WHAT ONE MIGHT
EXPECT IF THE ECMWF WAS THE ATMOSPHERIC MODEL DRIVING THE SURGE
MODELS. HEDGING THAT THE ECMWF MIGHT NUDGE STILL A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH...HAVE MODESTLY UPPED THE GUIDANCE FOR A SURGE BETWEEN 2.5 AND
3 FT FOR MOST MA EAST COASTAL LOCATIONS. GIVEN A PERSISTENT AND
RELATIVELY STRONG NE FLOW...BELIEVE THE SURGE WILL REMAIN ABOUT THE
SAME THRU WED EVENING AND RELAX ONLY A LITTLE BY THE FRI MORNING
HIGH TIDE...WHICH MAY PROVE NEARLY AS PROBLEMATIC AS THE THU MORNING
HIGH TIDE.

WITH REGARD TO SEAS...JUST NUDGED THE WAVE WATCH VALUES UP A COUPLE
FEET FOR THE WATERS EAST OF MA TO YIELD NEARLY 25 FT JUST OFFSHORE
BY THU MORNING AND ONLY VERY SLOWLY BEGIN TO RELAX THEM DURING FRI.
ANTICIPATE THAT WE MAY SEE 10 TO 12 SEC PERIODS BY THU MORNING AND
PERHAPS 12 TO 14 SEC PERIODS BY FRI MORNING. THUS ANTICIPATE HIGH
ENERGY WAVES THAT COULD PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE OVERWASH AND POSSIBLY
SOME DAMAGE. FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...THE
SEAS LOOK CONSIDERABLY TOO LOW FOR THE EXPECTED SURFACE WIND
MAGNITUDE AND FETCH. RAISED THOSE VALUES GENERALLY BY 4 TO 7 FT.

RUNNING OUR TOTAL WATER LEVEL PRODUCT AND FACTORING BOTH STORM TIDE
AND WAVES IN THE MIX GIVES MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG
A NUMBER OF EAST AND NE FACING SHORELINES FROM SALISBURY TO
NANTUCKET AND MARTHAS VINEYARD. THIS STORM DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING FOR MARTHAS VINEYARD
THAN THE FEB 9 EVENT GIVEN THE EXPECTED ORIENTATION OF THE SURFACE
WIND FIELD. AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN FOR MUCH OF THE MA EAST COAST IS
THE EXISTING VULNERABILITY FROM THE FEB 9 EVENT.

ALTHOUGH WE ARE RATHER HESITANT AT THIS POINT TO JUMP ON THE GFS AND
NAM SOLUTIONS AS THE MODELS OF CHOICE...A SOLUTION CLOSE TO THOSE
MODELS WOULD PRODUCE A DEVASTATING COASTAL FLOOD EVENT WITH MAJOR
TO EXTREME BEACH EROSION. THAT IS NOT WHAT WE CONSIDER TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS POINT...BUT WE WILL BE WATCHING
TRENDS VERY CLOSELY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DOODY/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...DOODY/DUNTEN
MARINE...DOODY/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
442 PM EST MON MAR 4 2013

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-052145-
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-
WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-
WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
442 PM EST MON MAR 4 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT...CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY...THEN
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES EAST. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THIS
STORM MAY HAVE A HIGHER IMPACT THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...HOWEVER
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.

WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR SECTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND SOMETIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

WITH THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WINDS AND HIGH SEAS...AT
LEAST SOME BEACH EROSION ALONG THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS COAST IS
EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY HIGH
TIDE CYCLES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256-052145-
BOSTON HARBOR-CAPE COD BAY-NANTUCKET SOUND-VINEYARD SOUND-
BUZZARDS BAY-RHODE ISLAND SOUND-NARRAGANSETT BAY-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK NATIONAL
MARINE SANCTUARY-MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD AND
NANTUCKET-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT TO
20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND-
442 PM EST MON MAR 4 2013

...STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS
AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   STORM WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.