Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
634 AM EST WED NOV 27 2013

.SYNOPSIS...

STORM SYSTEM INTENSIFYING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WILL RESULT IN THE THREATS OF
URBAN AND POOR-DRAINAGE FLOODING...AS WELL AS STRONG AND DAMAGING
WINDS. WITH THE STORM DEPARTING...BLUSTERY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW. DRIER AND CONTINUED BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THANKSGIVING. VERY COLD BUT MAINLY DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES FRI/SAT...BEFORE TEMPS MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SOME PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

*/ 7 AM UPDATE...

H925 WINDS PER VERTICAL WIND PROFILERS REPORTING SSE WINDS OF 80
MPH ACROSS THE TAUNTON WFO. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND ARE GUSTING 40 TO 60 MPH. REPORTS ALREADY
BEING GATHERED OF DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES...WITH ISOLATED
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE /KEEP TUNED TO THE LATEST PNS-LSR PRODUCTS FOR
THE LATEST REPORTS/. MOMENTUM TRANSFER AND PRECIPITATION DRAG
PROCESSES PREVAILING TO BRING WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE.
EXPECTING STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

ONE-HOUR RAINFALL RATES AS HIGH AS HALF AN INCH HAVE BEEN
REPORTED ACROSS THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. CONTINUE TO
ANTICIPATE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES INTO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. A FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE REGION WITH THE THREAT OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE AND HOLIDAY TRAVEL DURING THE
DAY.

*/ SYNOPSIS...

BROAD-SCALE CONSENSUS AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE FORECAST
SOLUTIONS. FOLLOWING CLOSELY TO NEAR- AND SHORT-TERM MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

STORM SYSTEM UNDERGOING INTENSIFICATION THE CONSEQUENCE OF THE MID-
TO UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN BECOMING NEGATIVELY-TILTED AS DISTURBANCES
CYCLONICALLY DIG THROUGH THE BROADER PATTERN. ANOMALOUS ON THE ORDER
OF SEVERAL STANDARD DEVIATIONS...WIND PROFILES AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
ARE AMPLIFYING IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LOW RESULTING IN A BROAD
BAROCLINIC LEAF PATTERN /PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY/ ALONG AND
AHEAD...A CONSEQUENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE FETCH FROM SUB-TROPICAL
REGIONS. ALSO WORTH NOTING IS THE EXTENT OF INSTABILITY JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC PER LIGHTNING OBSERVATIONS AND COLD
CLOUD TOPS FROM IR SATELLITE.

*/ HIGH WIND THREAT...

LOW-LEVEL STABILITY INDEX DUE TO A WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT LENDING
TO A BOUNDARY LAYER INVERSION RESULTS IN A MAJORITY OF NEAR-TERM
GUIDANCE OF SURFACE WIND GUSTS JUST SHORT OF HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA /AND THIS ALSO MAY BE A CONSEQUENCE OF STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL
WINDS ARRIVING EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT/.

YET CONSIDERING THE POTENTIAL OF WARMER 2M TEMPERATURES THAN NEAR-
TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MAY ALLOW FOR MORE EFFECTIVE MOMENTUM
TRANSFER OF WINDS 1-2 KFT ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. ALSO PRECIPITATION
DRAG PROCESSES AND PRESSURE FALLS /STRONGER ISALLOBARIC WINDS/
SHOULD BE CONSIDERED.

EVALUATING DOWNSTREAM VERTICAL WIND PROFILERS OVER NEW JERSEY AND
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WHICH ARE REPORTING 80 MPH AT H925 WITH 40
MPH GUSTS AT THE SURFACE...AND CONSIDERING THE POTENTIAL OF A 100
MPH SOUTHERLY JET AT H925 DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WIND GUSTS OF
50 MPH ARE CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.

WILL KEEP WITH PRESENT HEADLINES DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY IN REACHING
HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA. WITH THE THREATS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...
THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS RESULTING
IN DOWNED TREES...POWER LINES...EVEN ISOLATED STRUCTURAL DAMAGE.

GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST FROM NOW UNTIL ROUGHLY 4 PM THE STRONGEST
OF WHICH WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND 8 TO 9 AM.

*/ HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLOODING...

BULK OF DEEP-LAYER FORCING IS FOCUSED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF
THE SURFACE LOW. STRONG ANOMALOUS LOW-LEVEL FETCH OF SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE /NOTE THE INSTABILITY GENERATED AS FAR NORTH INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC PER LIGHTNING OBSERVATIONS...IR-SATELLITE CLOUD TOPS...AND
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS OF MUCAPE/ INTO THE REGION OF DEEP-LAYER ASCENT
WILL YIELD THE POTENTIAL OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN A
TIMEFRAME OF ROUGHLY 6 TO 12 HOURS /MAINLY FROM NOW INTO MIDDAY/.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF A SECOND SLUG OF RAIN AS NOTED BY THE HRRR
AND SOMEWHAT HINTED IN NEAR-TERM MESOSCALE GUIDANCE FOR THE MIDDAY
INTO AFTERNOON PERIOD OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BELIEVE THIS TO BE
A CONSEQUENCE OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING COUPLING WITH THE REAR-WARD
UPPER-LEVEL JET DIVERGENCE ALLOWING FOR SLANTWISE ASCENT THROUGH THE
COLUMN. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AS THE BULK OF
MOISTURE AND FORCING AS DISCUSSED ABOVE IS FOCUSED TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE DEEPENING LOW.

CONSIDERING THE ABUNDANCE OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...THE
HIGHLY ANOMALOUS MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH PWATS UP TO 1.75 INCHES...
AND THE POTENTIAL IMPLICATIONS ON HOLIDAY TRAVEL /ESPECIALLY DURING
THE MORNING PERIOD/...WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF LEAF CLOGGED DRAINS AND PONDING ALONG ROADWAYS.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON RIVERINE FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THOUGH WINDS DROP OFF IMMEDIATELY IN PROXIMITY TO THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...COLDER AND DRIER AIR QUICKLY RUSHES IN TO THE REAR.
STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALLOWING FOR EFFECTIVE MOMENTUM
TRANSFER OF WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE COUPLED WITH A CONTINUALLY
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE CENTER AS IT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OUT OF
NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...
POTENTIALLY REACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BY MORNING.

ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE BROADER TROUGHING
REGIME INVOKE LOW-LEVEL DEFORMATION AS NOTED BY Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
BETWEEN H925-700. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WITHIN THE COLD POOL BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY UNDERGO SOME FORCING...ESPECIALLY OROGRAPHICALLY
ALONG WESTERN SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN TO YIELD SNOW SHOWERS AND
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH.

MAIN REGIONS OF CONCERN ARE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. SLICK SPOTS ALONG
ROADWAYS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION. EXPECT SUBSIDENCE
AND DRIER AIR TO PREVAIL AFTER MIDNIGHT RESULTING IN THE CONCLUSION
OF DISTURBED WEATHER FOR NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* THANKSGIVING DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY  COLD AND WINDY
* MAINLY DRY FRI/SAT BUT VERY COLD
* TEMPS MODERATE SUN-TUE WITH THE THREAT OF SOME PRECIPITATION

DETAILS...

THANKSGIVING DAY...WHILE SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO BETWEEN
-12 AND -14C. THIS WILL RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER FOR
LATE NOVEMBER. HIGHS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN...TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ELSEWHERE.
EXCELLENT MIXING SHOULD SUPPORT WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35
TO 45 MPH. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...SO LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER
ADDITIONAL WIND HEADLINES. REGARDLESS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE
IN THE TEENS...TO LOWER 20S WHICH WILL BE A RUDE AWAKENING AFTER
THE VERY MILD WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT...LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH AND
RESULT IN A GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. IT WILL BE QUITE
COLD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S.

FRIDAY...A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE ARE ON TAP BUT WITH WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN
850 MB TEMPS BETWEEN -14C AND -16C! THIS SHOULD ONLY ALLOW
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RECOVER TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN...WITH 30 TO 35 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. IT
WON/T FEEL QUITE AS COLD AS THANKSGIVING DAY THOUGH...AS WINDS
WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER. NONETHELESS...CERTAINLY ANOTHER IMPRESSIVE
SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR FOR THE END OF NOVEMBER.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AN ANOMALOUS 1045 MB HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL POSITION ITSELF ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THE CONTINUATION OF VERY COLD BUT MAINLY DRY
WEATHER. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT OCEAN EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LATE FRI NIGHT/SAT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND COAST. SURFACE WINDS TURN NORTH NORTHEAST WITH 850 MB
TEMPS TILL AROUND -14C...SO THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME
VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN THAT REGION. OTHERWISE...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD MAINLY
BE IN THE TEENS. HIGHS ON SAT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE
MIDDLE 30S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATING TEMPS WILL OCCUR AS LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. LOW CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATON
POTENTIAL AND TIMING. WE MAY HAVE A ROUND OR TWO OF SCATTERED
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. WOULD
EXPECT IT TO BE MILD ENOUGH IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FOR MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN...BUT SOME MIXED PRECIP
WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. ALSO...A FEW MODELS ARE
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MORE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WITH A POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. LOW CONFIDENCE
IF THIS OCCURS GIVEN ITS 5 TO 6 DAYS IN THE FUTURE...BUT SOMETHING
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

12Z UPDATE...

AIRPORT WEATHER WARNINGS ISSUED FOR BOSTON AND PROVIDENCE WITH THE
THREAT OF STRONG SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS AT OR EXCEEDING 40 KTS.

12Z TAFS LIKELY TO FLUCTUATE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT THE
OVERALL THEME WILL BE IFR WITH STRONG TO DAMAGING SOUTHEAST WINDS
FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TERMINALS /TERMINALS ACROSS THE MID-
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY REMAIN IN LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW...BUT
SHOULD MIX-OUT SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MIXED IFR-VLIFR CIGS AND VSBYS PREVAILING INTO MIDDAY WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS. STRONGEST OF WINDS CENTER
AROUND 12-15Z. WIDESPREAD RA WITH EMBEDDED +RA.

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY INTO EVENING
WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. CIGS AND VSBYS LIFT TO VFR. -SN
POSSIBLE FOR NW MA AND S NH TERMINALS RESULTING IN TEMPO MVFR-IFR
VSBYS. WINDS DIMINISHING BRIEFLY AS THEY QUICKLY BACK OUT OF THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND BEGIN TO GUST BACK UP TO 40 KTS INTO THURSDAY.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. STRONGEST WIND AND
HEAVIEST RAIN 09Z-18Z WED.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. STRONGEST WIND AND
HEAVIEST RAIN 06Z-15Z WED.

OUTLOOK...THANKSGIVING THROUGH SUNDAY...

THANKSGIVING...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS DURING THE DAY DIMINISHING BY EVENING.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR.  THE EXCEPTION
MIGHT BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND COAST LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.  THIS WOULD BE A RESULT OF
OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES.

SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A PERIOD OR TWO OF MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN A LIGHT WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE INTERIOR/LIGHT
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

GALE FORCE WINDS WITH INFREQUENT STORM FORCE GUSTS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING WILL RESULT IN SEAS OF AROUND 15 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND FOG WILL MAKE
FOR VISIBILITY ISSUES.

EXPECT WET WEATHER ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS
AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE WATERS. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL
BRIEFLY DIMINISH WITH PASSAGE...BUT WINDS WILL QUICKLY BACK OUT OF
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND INCREASE YET AGAIN TO GALE FORCE. SEAS
REMAINING CHOPPY AROUND 10 FEET FOR THE OUTER WATERS.

ANTICIPATE THE REISSUANCE OF GALE WARNINGS WITH THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST PACKAGE FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...THANKSGIVING THROUGH SUNDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THANKSGIVING...WEST TO NORTHWEST GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40
KNOTS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD THEN
DIMINISH TO SCA LEVELS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.  SEAS WILL REMAIN QUITE
HIGH WITH VALUES IN THE 9 TO 14 FOOT RANGE DURING THE MORNING...BUT
WILL DIMINISH SOME LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST.  THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS/SEAS TO DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
ACROSS ALL WATERS BY FRI AFTERNOON.  WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS RIGHT THROUGH SAT.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE WATERS ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR.  SEAS MAY EVENTUALLY REACH SCA LEVELS
LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT FROM LONGER SOUTHERLY FETCH.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

LOW ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE WHAT MIGHT
OTHERWISE BE A VERY SIGNIFICANT EVENT. LONG AND STRONG SOUTHERLY
FETCH COMBINED WITH SHARP PRES FALLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE A 2 TO 2.5
FT STORM SURGE ALONG MUCH OF THE RI S COAST AND EAST ACROSS THE
BUZZARDS BAY COAST...AND A LITTLE LESS ALONG THE REST OF THE MA S
COAST. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE SURGE WILL PROBABLY PEAK OUT 2
TO 4 HOURS BEFORE THE WED AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. WAVES IN THE OCEAN
EXPOSED NEAR SHORE WATERS WILL LIKELY REACH 11 TO 15 FT FROM
WESTERLY RI TO WESTPORT MA...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF INTO BUZZARDS
BAY. ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE PARTICULARLY LOW...HOWEVER...AND
THUS ANTICIPATE MINIMAL IMPACT IN THE FORM OF MINOR SPLASHOVER
AROUND THE TIME OF THE WED AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE ALONG THE EXPOSED
RI S COAST AND POSSIBLY THE MA S COAST FROM WESTPORT TO FAIRHAVEN.
SPOTTY AND MINOR BEACH EROSION MAY OCCUR DURING THE WED HIGH TIDE
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE EXPOSED RI S COAST AND MA COAST...INCLUDING
THE S SIDES OF MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ002>004.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ002>021-026.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ022>024.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ013>021.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-011-
     012.
NH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ001>007.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ008.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ230>237-251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1018 AM EST WED NOV 27 2013

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>012-026-NHZ011-012-015-272230-
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-CHESHIRE NH-
EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-
1018 AM EST WED NOV 27 2013

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT...CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS
AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT MAY RESULT IN A COATING TO 1 INCH
OF SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST MASSACHUSETTS AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO QUICKLY FALL BELOW
FREEZING TONIGHT...WHICH MAY RESULT IN ICY SPOTS DEVELOPING ON
UNTREATED ROADWAYS.

IN ADDITION...A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT FOR
SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 45
MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED THANKSGIVING MORNING FOR SUSTAINED
WESTERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MAZ022>024-RIZ008-272230-
BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
1018 AM EST WED NOV 27 2013

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED THANKSGIVING MORNING FOR SUSTAINED
WESTERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MAZ013>021-RIZ001>007-272230-
WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SUFFOLK MA-
EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-
EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-
NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-
EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-
1018 AM EST WED NOV 27 2013

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND
AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.
   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED THANKSGIVING MORNING FOR SUSTAINED
WESTERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ANZ250-254>256-272230-
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK NATIONAL
MARINE SANCTUARY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD AND
NANTUCKET-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT TO
20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND-
1018 AM EST WED NOV 27 2013

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS
AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

WEST-NORTHWEST GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
WATERS ON THANKSGIVING DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ANZ230>237-251-272230-
BOSTON HARBOR-CAPE COD BAY-NANTUCKET SOUND-VINEYARD SOUND-
BUZZARDS BAY-RHODE ISLAND SOUND-NARRAGANSETT BAY-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
1018 AM EST WED NOV 27 2013

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS
AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

WEST-NORTHWEST GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
WATERS ON THANKSGIVING DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
603 AM EST WED NOV 27 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0602 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG SOUTHBOROUGH            42.30N  71.52W
11/27/2013                   WORCESTER          MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TOP OF 20 DIAMETER SNAPPED OFF CAUSING DAMAGE TO ROOF
            ON EDGEWOOD DRIVE

&&

AED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
832 AM EST WED NOV 27 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0602 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG SOUTHBOROUGH            42.30N  71.52W
11/27/2013                   WORCESTER          MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TOP OF 20 DIAMETER SNAPPED OFF CAUSING DAMAGE TO ROOF
            ON EDGEWOOD DRIVE

0624 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST WARWICK                 41.70N  71.42W
11/27/2013  M59 MPH          KENT               RI   HAM RADIO

            HAM RADIO

0744 AM     HIGH SUST WINDS  EAST FALMOUTH           41.58N  70.56W
11/27/2013  M41 MPH          BARNSTABLE         MA   NONE

&&

WS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
924 AM EST WED NOV 27 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0602 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG SOUTHBOROUGH            42.30N  71.52W
11/27/2013                   WORCESTER          MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TOP OF 20 DIAMETER SNAPPED OFF CAUSING DAMAGE TO ROOF
            ON EDGEWOOD DRIVE

0624 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST WARWICK                 41.70N  71.42W
11/27/2013  M59 MPH          KENT               RI   HAM RADIO

            HAM RADIO

0638 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG COVENTRY                41.68N  71.65W
11/27/2013                   KENT               RI   AMATEUR RADIO

            SMALL TREES DOWN ON WHALEY HOLLOW AND PHILLIPS HILL
            ROADS

0711 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG REHOBOTH                41.83N  71.27W
11/27/2013                   BRISTOL            MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN ON WIRES ON BAY STATE ROAD.

0719 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG MARION                  41.70N  70.76W
11/27/2013                   PLYMOUTH           MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN.

0721 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG WAREHAM                 41.75N  70.72W
11/27/2013                   PLYMOUTH           MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN.

0730 AM     HIGH SUST WINDS  3 SSW MILTON            42.21N  71.11W
11/27/2013  M44 MPH          NORFOLK            MA   ASOS

0736 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG NORWELL                 42.17N  70.78W
11/27/2013                   PLYMOUTH           MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN ON CENTENNIAL LANE AT WILDCAT LANE

0744 AM     HIGH SUST WINDS  EAST FALMOUTH           41.58N  70.56W
11/27/2013  M41 MPH          BARNSTABLE         MA   NONE

            TRAINED SPOTTER

0802 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG BOSTON                  42.32N  71.07W
11/27/2013                   SUFFOLK            MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            LARGE TREE DOWN AT LONGWOOD AVENUE WAS BLOCKING ALL
            LANES.

0813 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SSW MILTON            42.21N  71.11W
11/27/2013  M63 MPH          NORFOLK            MA   ASOS

0816 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG BOSTON                  42.32N  71.07W
11/27/2013                   SUFFOLK            MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN ACROSS STORROW DRIVE EASTBOUND NEAR MASS
            GENERAL HOSPITAL

0819 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG DUXBURY                 42.04N  70.67W
11/27/2013                   PLYMOUTH           MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            POLE LEANING ONTO ROADWAY PARTIALLY BLOCKING CEDAR
            STREET

0819 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG MARSHFIELD              42.09N  70.71W
11/27/2013                   PLYMOUTH           MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN ON WIRES

0826 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG MIDDLEBORO              41.89N  70.91W
11/27/2013                   PLYMOUTH           MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN ON CAR ON THOMPSON ST. TREE DOWN ON RHODE
            ISLAND RD. TREE DOWN ON CREST DR.

0826 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG BILLERICA               42.55N  71.27W
11/27/2013                   MIDDLESEX          MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN ON CONCORD RD. BY MIDDLESEX TPKE.

0826 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG WILMINGTON              42.56N  71.17W
11/27/2013                   MIDDLESEX          MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN IN AREA OF FEDERAL AND WOBURN STREETS

0910 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG WEST WARWICK            41.70N  71.52W
11/27/2013                   KENT               RI   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN ON HOUSE CAUSING HOUSE FIRE.

&&

FIELD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
941 AM EST WED NOV 27 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0602 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG SOUTHBOROUGH            42.30N  71.52W
11/27/2013                   WORCESTER          MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TOP OF 20 DIAMETER SNAPPED OFF CAUSING DAMAGE TO ROOF
            ON EDGEWOOD DRIVE

0624 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST WARWICK                 41.70N  71.42W
11/27/2013  M59 MPH          KENT               RI   HAM RADIO

            HAM RADIO

0638 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG COVENTRY                41.68N  71.65W
11/27/2013                   KENT               RI   AMATEUR RADIO

            SMALL TREES DOWN ON WHALEY HOLLOW AND PHILLIPS HILL
            ROADS

0711 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG REHOBOTH                41.83N  71.27W
11/27/2013                   BRISTOL            MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN ON WIRES ON BAY STATE ROAD.

0719 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG MARION                  41.70N  70.76W
11/27/2013                   PLYMOUTH           MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN.

0721 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG WAREHAM                 41.75N  70.72W
11/27/2013                   PLYMOUTH           MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN.

0730 AM     HIGH SUST WINDS  3 SSW MILTON            42.21N  71.11W
11/27/2013  M44 MPH          NORFOLK            MA   ASOS

0736 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG NORWELL                 42.17N  70.78W
11/27/2013                   PLYMOUTH           MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN ON CENTENNIAL LANE AT WILDCAT LANE

0744 AM     HIGH SUST WINDS  EAST FALMOUTH           41.58N  70.56W
11/27/2013  M41 MPH          BARNSTABLE         MA   NONE

            TRAINED SPOTTER

0802 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG BOSTON                  42.32N  71.07W
11/27/2013                   SUFFOLK            MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            LARGE TREE DOWN AT LONGWOOD AVENUE WAS BLOCKING ALL
            LANES.

0813 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SSW MILTON            42.21N  71.11W
11/27/2013  M63 MPH          NORFOLK            MA   ASOS

0816 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG BOSTON                  42.32N  71.07W
11/27/2013                   SUFFOLK            MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN ACROSS STORROW DRIVE EASTBOUND NEAR MASS
            GENERAL HOSPITAL

0819 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG DUXBURY                 42.04N  70.67W
11/27/2013                   PLYMOUTH           MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            POLE LEANING ONTO ROADWAY PARTIALLY BLOCKING CEDAR
            STREET

0819 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG MARSHFIELD              42.09N  70.71W
11/27/2013                   PLYMOUTH           MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN ON WIRES

0820 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG BRAINTREE               42.20N  71.00W
11/27/2013                   NORFOLK            MA   PUBLIC

            LARGE LIMBS DOWN ON ROUTE 37. TIME APPROXIMATE.

0826 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG MIDDLEBORO              41.89N  70.91W
11/27/2013                   PLYMOUTH           MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN ON CAR ON THOMPSON ST. TREE DOWN ON RHODE
            ISLAND RD. TREE DOWN ON CREST DR.

0826 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG BILLERICA               42.55N  71.27W
11/27/2013                   MIDDLESEX          MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN ON CONCORD RD. BY MIDDLESEX TPKE.

0826 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG WILMINGTON              42.56N  71.17W
11/27/2013                   MIDDLESEX          MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN IN AREA OF FEDERAL AND WOBURN STREETS

0910 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG WEST WARWICK            41.70N  71.52W
11/27/2013                   KENT               RI   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN ON HOUSE CAUSING HOUSE FIRE ON CEDAR DRIVE.

&&

FIELD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1002 AM EST WED NOV 27 2013

MAZ019-021>023-271545-
EASTERN PLYMOUTH-BARNSTABLE-DUKES-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH-
1002 AM EST WED NOV 27 2013

...HEAVY SHOWERS WITH VERY STRONG WINDS HEADING TOWARD UPPER CAPE
COD...

AT 1002 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER THAT WAS
JUST TO THE WEST OF MARTHAS VINEYARD. THE LINE WAS RACING TO THE
NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.

RADAR INDICATED THAT POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUST OF 50 TO 60 MPH
MAY ACCOMPANY THESE HEAVY SHOWERS AS THEY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PART
OF CAPE COD AND SOUTHEASTERN PLYMOUTH COUNTY BETWEEN NOW AND 11 AM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... PLYMOUTH...BARNSTABLE...FALMOUTH...OAK
BLUFFS...TISBURY...PROVINCETOWN...AQUINNAH...YARMOUTH...WAREHAM...
SANDWICH...BOURNE...MASHPEE...WEST TISBURY...TRURO...CHILMARK AND
GOSNOLD.

LAT...LON 4151 7068 4142 7088 4143 7088 4154 7066
      4168 7062 4168 7072 4170 7062 4173 7069
      4182 7063 4208 7023 4206 7010 4189 7052
      4180 7053 4171 7026 4203 7017 4171 7024
      4153 7065 4146 7056 4126 7083
TIME...MOT...LOC 1502Z 216DEG 61KT 4142 7085 4115 7101

FIELD