Severe Thunderstorm Warning 209, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

290 
WWUS55 KBOU 220103
SVSBOU

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
703 PM MDT WED AUG 21 2013

COC095-115-220113-
/O.CAN.KBOU.SV.W.0209.000000T0000Z-130822T0130Z/
PHILLIPS CO-SEDGWICK CO-
703 PM MDT WED AUG 21 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR PHILLIPS AND SEDGWICK COUNTIES
IS CANCELLED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.  HOWEVER SMALL HAIL AND 
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS 
THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4047 10265 4098 10242 4100 10208 4047 10210
TIME...MOT...LOC 0059Z 311DEG 13KT 4057 10234 

$$

BAKER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
307 PM MDT WED AUG 21 2013

.SHORT TERM...OVERALL MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE
AS INTEGRATED PW VALUES CLOSING IN ON ONE INCH OVER THE FRONT
RANGE. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WHICH WILL PROVIDE
THE BEST DAY FOR RAIN CHANCES. AS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE CYS RIDGE.
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MAINLY LIGHT WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. LATEST AIRCRAFT/ACARS DATA INDICATES
SURFACE BASED CAPES AT KDEN UNDER 500J/KG BUT OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST PLAINS MID 90S AND AROUND 60 DEWPOINTS SHOW CAPES
1000-2000J/KG. THIS WOULD BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER AND
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. RADAR INDICATES A BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM
CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTY AND EXTENDING NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST
YUMA COUNTY. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW CONVERGENCE OVER THE
NORTHEAST CORNER WHICH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH SPARK FOR STORMS TO
INITIATE.

AS NOTED EARLIER...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE ON THURSDAY
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED POPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE COOLER WITH
A SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER AIR LATER TONIGHT. CAPES WILL BE A BIT
HIGHER THURSDAY ALONG WITH SHALLOW UPSLOPE NORTHEAST FLOW.

.LONG TERM...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DECREASING THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVING OUT ONTO THE PLAINS. EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO BE DONE JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE MAY BE A FEW AREAS
OF PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PASTE INTO THE
FORECAST.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING EAST OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING BACK WEST TOWARD
THE STATE. THIS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. MOISTURE WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS EACH DAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE MOVING OVER THE
PLAINS. STARTING SUNDAY...MOISTURE FROM A FORECASTED TROPICAL
CYCLONE SOUTH OF BAJA WILL SURGE NORTH INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THEN UP INTO THE STATE. RIGHT NOW...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BE
HEADING BACK TOWARD THE STATE WHICH SEEMS TO KEEP MOST OF THIS
MOISTURE OVER UTAH AND SOME OF WESTERN COLORADO. WILL HAVE TO KEEP
MONITORING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO SEE HOW FAR THE MOISTURE
MAKES IT. RIGHT NOW KEPT POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. WITH THE UPPER HIGH MOVING BACK CLOSE TO OR OVER THE
STATE...WILL CREATE LIGHT WINDS ALOFT AND THE GREATER CHANCE FOR
HEAVIER RAIN. THIS PATTERN SHOULD HOLD ON OVER INTO MONDAY BEFORE
THE UPPER HIGH PUSHES NORTH BRINGING IN DRIER AIR WITH CONTINUED
WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN BEFORE HITTING
THE TERMINALS SO EXPECT MAINLY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WITH ERRATIC
WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. WEAK SECONDARY FRONTAL PUSH LATER THIS
EVENING SHOULD KEEP WINDS FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS LOW TODAY WITH MARGINAL
INSTABILITY DESPITE INCREASING MOISTURE/PW VALUES. STEERING FLOW
SPEEDY ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS MOVING ALONG.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM....KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...ENTREKIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1032 AM MDT WED AUG 21 2013

COZ030>051-221645-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-
WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-
GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-
SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/
GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE
9000 FEET-LARIMER AND BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-
JEFFERSON AND WEST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR
CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-
LARIMER COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-
BOULDER AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD
COUNTY-
NORTH DOUGLAS COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND
ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-
ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET-
NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-
CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-
SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN COUNTY-
LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS COUNTY-
1032 AM MDT WED AUG 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN
COLORADO TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON
THE PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL
BE WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...THOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONGER
STORMS ON THE PLAINS THAT COULD ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL
HAIL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OVER
THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ONE INCH DIAMETER
HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IN THE HIGH COUNTRY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SOME DRYING BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AFTER A BETTER CHANCE
TO SEE STORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.