Severe Thunderstorm Warning 202, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
226 PM MDT MON AUG 12 2013

.SHORT TERM...CURRENT FRONT RANGE CONVECTION SHOULD PROGRESS
EASTWARD WITH AN ORGANIZED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. PROBABLY NOT A SOLID
LINE BUT THERE SHOULD BE DECENT COVERAGE ON THE PLAINS EAST OF
DENVER THIS EVENING. FURTHER WEST THERE SHOULD BE A SUBSTANTIAL
AMOUNT OF LESS INTENSE CONVECTION THAT WILL SLOWLY FADE WITH
COOLING OVERNIGHT. WEAK LIFT IN A MOIST AIRMASS WILL PROGRESS
ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE CLOUD
COVER WILL RESTRAIN HEATING...SO WHILE THERE MAY BE A LOW LEVEL OF
WEAK CONVECTION CONTINUING THE MOISTURE ALOFT IS NOT NECESSARILY
FAVORABLE FOR MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE THERE IS MORE MOISTURE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS LIKE CAPES WILL STILL BE AROUND 500
J/KG...PERHAPS CLOSER TO 1000 J/KG ON THE PLAINS. I DELAYED THE
INCREASE IN ACTIVITY UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND BACKED OFF
ON POPS A LITTLE BIT...STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED STORMS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. AGAIN STORMS WILL LIKELY BE MOVING...BUT SLOWLY. A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT BUT NOT TOO MUCH OF A FLOOD THREAT OUTSIDE OF
THE BURN AREAS.

.LONG TERM...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING
WILL BE IN THE EARLY EVENING WITH GRADUAL DECREASE THEREAFTER.
THERE WILL BE A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WITH A WEAK NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. ON WEDNESDAY THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY
WITH PW VALUES PROGGED TO BE AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AGAIN EXPECTED IN THE AFTN AND
EVENING. IN TERMS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THERE WILL BE SOME DRYING
FROM THE FOOTHILLS WESTWARD BUT NOT ENOUGH TO AFFECT COVERAGE
ALTHO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN MAY LESSEN SLIGHTLY. NOT MUCH
CHANGE IN THE GRIDS PLANNED FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH A DRIER
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. INCREASING STABILITY IN THE MID LEVELS WILL
LIKELY DELAY THE ONSET OF TSTMS UNTIL LATE AFTN AND EVENING OVER
THE NERN PLAINS. ON SUNDAY...THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE MDLS
BRING A SHORT WAVE ACROSS COLORADO AROUND 18Z SUNDAY ACCORDING TO
THE ECMWF BUT ABOUT 24 HOURS LATER ACCORDING TO THE OPERATIONAL
GFS. AS A RESULT...ALTHO THERE ARE OBVIOUS TIMING DISCREPANCIES...
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE BY THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DENVER AREA THROUGH
ABOUT 00Z THEN LESS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
EVENING. MAIN THREAT IS GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS...THOUGH
THERE WILL BE SOME IFR CONDITIONS AND HAIL UNDER THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. THREAT OF IFR CONDITIONS IS MUCH LESS AFTER 02Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SIMILAR IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN TODAY...UP
TO 1.5 INCHES IN AN HOUR. THIS COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING.
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS ON THE PLAINS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...BUT IN GENERAL THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING. THE
MAIN THREAT FOR THE BURN AREAS HAS LIKELY PASSED WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS MOVING ONTO THE PLAINS...SLIGHT CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN STILL
BUT MOST STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL ONLY HAVE LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL. ON TUESDAY THE THREAT APPEARS TO BE SIMILAR AS
STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING SLOWLY WITH A LOW THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING
MAINLY FOR THE BURN AREAS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM....COOPER
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1106 AM MDT MON AUG 12 2013

COZ030>051-131715-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-
WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-
GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-
SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/
GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE
9000 FEET-LARIMER AND BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-
JEFFERSON AND WEST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR
CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-
LARIMER COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-
BOULDER AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD
COUNTY-
NORTH DOUGLAS COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND
ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-
ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET-
NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-
CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-
SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN COUNTY-
LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS COUNTY-
1106 AM MDT MON AUG 12 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THEN SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...AND A COUPLE STORMS ON THE PLAINS MAY BRIEFLY
REACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY
WINDS TO AROUND 60 MPH. SOME FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF A STRONGER
STORM MOVES OVER A FRONT RANGE BURN SCAR. A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER
PAST MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON THE EASTERN PLAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING WETTER AND COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH EASTERLY UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE PLAINS.
SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL INCREASE CONCERN FOR STORMS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA...AS WELL AS HAIL AND
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WHERE MORE
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE DRIER AND WARMER AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SUNDAY WILL INCREASE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

GIMMESTAD/COOPER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
209 PM MDT MON AUG 12 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     HEAVY RAIN       THE PINERY              39.46N 104.73W
08/12/2013  M1.06 INCH       DOUGLAS            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            IN 15 MINUTES

&&

JK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
237 PM MDT MON AUG 12 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     HAIL             SE PARKER               39.51N 104.76W
08/12/2013  M1.00 INCH       DOUGLAS            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0200 PM     HEAVY RAIN       THE PINERY              39.46N 104.73W
08/12/2013  M1.06 INCH       DOUGLAS            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            IN 15 MINUTES

&&

JK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
445 PM MDT MON AUG 12 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     HEAVY RAIN       LIMON                   39.27N 103.69W
08/12/2013  E1.50 INCH       LINCOLN            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            IN 45 MINUTES. 6 TO 8 INCHES OF FLOWING WATER ON STREETS

0220 PM     HAIL             SE PARKER               39.51N 104.76W
08/12/2013  M1.00 INCH       DOUGLAS            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0200 PM     HEAVY RAIN       THE PINERY              39.46N 104.73W
08/12/2013  M1.06 INCH       DOUGLAS            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            IN 15 MINUTES

&&

JK

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