Red Flag Warning 5, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

978 
WWUS85 KBOU 110252
RFWBOU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
852 PM MDT MON JUN 10 2013

...CRITICAL WILDLAND FIRE DANGER FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND
CENTRAL COLORADO FOR TUESDAY...

COZ214-216-111200-
/O.EXP.KBOU.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-130611T0300Z/
/O.CON.KBOU.FW.W.0006.130611T1500Z-130612T0300Z/
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-
JEFFERSON AND WEST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR
CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-
852 PM MDT MON JUN 10 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT
TUESDAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND PARK
COUNTY...
...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND PARK COUNTY...

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 214 AND 216.

* TIMING...9 AM TO 9 PM TUESDAY.

* THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY DRY. ISOLATED HIGH BASED STORMS HAVE THE
  POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND DRY
  LIGHTNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
  ON TUESDAY.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH TONIGHT...INCREASING AND
  SHIFTING SOUTHWEST TO WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
  ON TUESDAY.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 6 PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES MAY ALSO CAUSE RAPID
  FIRE GROWTH OR EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR ON TUESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
CAN CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

$$

COZ246-247-111200-
/O.CON.KBOU.FW.W.0006.130611T1500Z-130612T0300Z/
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-
SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN COUNTY-
852 PM MDT MON JUN 10 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT
TUESDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE
SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS...PARK...LINCOLN AND EASTERN ELBERT COUNTIES...

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 246 AND 247.

* TIMING...9 AM TUESDAY TO 9 PM TUESDAY EVENING.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 5 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES MAY CAUSE RAPID FIRE 
  GROWTH OR EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
CAN CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1040 AM MDT MON JUN 10 2013

.UPDATE...

&&

.SHORT TERM...HAVE UPDATED FORECAST GRIDS TO NUDGE UP TODAY/S MAX
TEMPERATURES A DEG OR TWO...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WITH
CURRENT READINGS RUNNING 8-13 DEG F AHEAD OF YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME. TEMPERATURE AT DIA WAS ACTUALLY 19 DEGS WARMER. 12Z DEN
TEMPERATURE SOUNDING SUGGESTED A RAPID WARMUP THIS MORNING INTO
THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S...THEN A SLOWER/GRADUAL WARMING THE NEXT
5-10 DEGS. RECORD HIGH AT DENVER/S DIA IS 97. SAFE TO SAY WE/LL
HIT IT...AND PROBABLY EXCEED IT BY A DEG OR TWO. DOWNTOWN DENVER
TEMPERATURE WILL PROBABLY REACH THE CENTURY MARK BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. OF COURSE ALL THIS DEPENDS ON THE AMOUNT OF CIRRUS
SPREADING OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS WE/RE NOW HAVE ALONG
THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN FRONT RANGE. REGARDING THE SMALL STREAM
FLOOD ADVISORY IN EAST CENTRAL SUMMIT COUNTY...NO CHANGES TO IT AT
THIS TIME. THE FIREWEATHER WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE
FOOTHILLS AND SOUTH PARK WILL ALSO REMAIN AS IS FOR NOW...WAITING
TO SEE IF ANY CONVECTION AND DRY LIGHTNING ACTUALLY DEVELOPS IN
THE WATCH AREA.

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
INCLUDING NO CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 6-13KTS THROUGH MID-EVENING...THEN SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST AT 7-14 KTS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FIREWEATHER WATCH FOR FIRE ZONES FOR 214 AND 216
FOR TODAY BEGINNING AT 1 PM MDT REMAINS UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION/
THUNDERSTORMS/DRY LIGHTNING IN THE WATCH AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE AREA ALONG
STRAIGHT CREEK IN EAST CENTRAL SUMMIT COUNTY REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL AT LEAST 815 PM MDT EVENING. THE ADVISORY MAY BE EXTENDED
SHOULD CONDITIONS REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM MDT MON JUN 10 2013/

SHORT TERM...UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER COLORADO TODAY WITH THE
WARMEST AIR ALOFT. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY
INCREASE...WITH LOW LEVELS REMAINING VERY DRY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
HAVE TOO MUCH MOISTURE...AND LOOKING AT LOW LEVELS UPSTREAM
SUSPECT THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE. THIS MAKES IT LESS LIKELY THAT
WE WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING TODAY. SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON...BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME WEAK CONVECTION AS
THE COMBINATION OF THE EXISTING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION REMNANTS MOVES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL AT LEAST KEEP QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT...WE HAVE 10 PERCENT POPS ON THE PLAINS THIS EVENING AND
I WILL LEAVE THEM THOUGH THAT MAY BE OVERDONE. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...AFTER A QUICK RISE THIS MORNING THE CLOUDS SHOULD
TAKE A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF OF WHAT COULD BE. MOS GUIDANCE HAS
100-104 DEGREES IN DENVER TODAY...I WILL STICK WITH THE UPPER 90S
THAT WE HAVE SINCE IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS BY
MIDDAY. RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT AS WELL WITH CLOUD COVER AND
SOUTHWEST GRADIENT INCREASING...COULD STAY NEAR 80 IN HOT SPOTS
LIKE BOULDER OVERNIGHT. DENVER RECORD HIGH TODAY IS 97 AND THE
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM IS 64...IT LOOKS LIKE BOTH MAY FALL.

AS FOR THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...CHIEF ISSUE TODAY IS THE AMOUNT
OF LIGHTNING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...IT LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CAPES WILL BE LIMITED...AND PROBABLY JUST ISOLATED
ACTIVITY...BUT WE WILL MAKE A FINAL CALL THIS MORNING ABOUT THE
CONVECTIVE FORECAST FOR LATE TODAY. HUMIDITIES WILL DEFINITELY BE
LOW ENOUGH.

LONG TERM...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS
COLORADO ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. BY WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER
RIDGE IS BACK OVER THE CWA. THERE IS WEAK UPWARD QG VERTICAL
VELOCITY OVER THE CWA MUCH OF TUESDAY...THEN DOWNWARD MOTION
THROUGH MID DAY WEDNESDAY. WEAK UPWARD MOTION IS PROGGED FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL
BE DOMINATED BY DOWNSLOPING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. EASTERLY
FLOW IS PROGGED ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH NORMAL
PATTERNS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE ISN'T VERY MUCH MOISTURE
AROUND THROUGH THE PERIODS. THE PROGGED DEW POINT READINGS ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ARE IN THE 20S AND 30S F FOR MUCH OF
THE CWA. THERE ARE HIGHER VALUES OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER ON
THE GFS ONLY. BY LATE DAY WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE
SOME 50S F DEW POINTS OVER THE FAR CORNER...BUT MOST OF THE
PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS HAVE READINGS IN THE 30S F. LOOKING AT
CAPE...THERE IS SOME OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA ONLY
LATE DAY TUESDAY. VALUES ARE UP ABOVE 1000 J/KG OVER THE FAR
BORDER. FOR LATE DAY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS LESS OVER THE NORTHEAST
CORNER...BUT THE NAM HAS MINOR AMOUNTS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. THE
LAPSE RATE FIELDS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT CAP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA LATE DAY TUESDAY. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT CAP OVER THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA LATE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE QPF FIELDS
HAVE A TINY BIT OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST
CORNER LATE DAY TUESDAY. ONLY THE NAM SHOWS A TINY BIT OF
MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE DAY WEDNESDAY. NO
POPS. WILL KEEP THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH GOING IN THE SOUTHERN CWA
WITH THE WINDS AND DRY AIRMASS IN MIND ON TUESDAY. FOR
TEMPERATURES...TUESDAY'S HIGHS LOOK TO BE 1-3 C COOLER THAN
MONDAY'S HIGHS. WEDNESDAY'S HIGHS LOOK CLOSE TO TUESDAY'S. FOR
THE LATER DAYS...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT LOOKS TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE TIME. A PRETTY DECENT UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES BEGINS TO MOVE
EASTWARD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT THE UPPER RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF
COLORADO KEEPS IT FROM OUR CWA. THE AIRMASS COOLS OFF A LITTLE AND
MOISTURE INCREASES ENOUGH FOR "SLIGHT CHANCE"S OF LATE DAY STORMS
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.  NOTHING SIGNIFICANT HOWEVER.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL EITHER
BECOME EASTERLY OR VARIABLE UNDER 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AT
KDEN/KAPA...BUT WILL LIKELY BECOME WESTERLY AGAIN AT KBJC LATE IN
THE DAY. ONLY ISOLATED HIGH BASED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF GUSTY WINDS.

HYDROLOGY...SLIGHTLY HIGHER FLOWS LIKELY ON HIGH MOUNTAIN
STREAMS TODAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN YESTERDAY. THIS WILL
LIKELY CAUSE PROBLEMS ON STRAIGHT CREEK IN SUMMIT COUNTY AGAIN
THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...BUT STREAMS WILL REMAIN HIGH.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR COZ214-216-246-247.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ214-216.

&&

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....RJK
AVIATION...BAKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1108 AM MDT MON JUN 10 2013

COZ030>051-111715-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-
WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-
GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-
SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/
GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE
9000 FEET-LARIMER AND BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-
JEFFERSON AND WEST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR
CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-
LARIMER COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-
BOULDER AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD
COUNTY-
NORTH DOUGLAS COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND
ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-
ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET-
NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-
CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-
SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN COUNTY-
LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS COUNTY-
1108 AM MDT MON JUN 10 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A DOME OF HOT DRY AIR CENTERED OVER COLORADO WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS TODAY...AND IN SOME AREAS
OF THE PLAINS TO NEW RECORD LEVELS. ISOLATED HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
TO AROUND 45 MPH. DUE TO VERY LOW HUMIDITIES...LITTLE IF ANY RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO FALL FROM THESE STORMS. DRY LIGHTNING WILL LIKELY
BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN. THE HOT TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES
WILL INCREASE THE WILDLAND FIRE DANGER TODAY AND CONTINUE TO
CAUSE HIGH COUNTRY CREEKS AND STREAMS TO RUN HIGH AND FAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

HOT AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDY CONDITIONS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER TUESDAY. FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

BAKER/MEIER