Red Flag Warning 11, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

858 
WWUS85 KBOU 212135
RFWBOU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
335 PM MDT FRI JUN 21 2013

...DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY AND ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
ON SATURDAY...

.PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER
COLORADO...BRINGING WARM AND DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. THE UPPER
AIR PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNCHANGED AGAIN ON SATURDAY...
BRINGING NO RELIEF TO THE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS FUEL MOISTURE
CONDITIONS THAT ARE IN PLACE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO. MILD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL CAUSE HUMIDITY RECOVERY
TO BE POOR OVERNIGHT...AND WARM TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITIES WILL CAUSE RED FLAG CONDITIONS TO RE-DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

COZ211-213-214-241-220545-
/O.NEW.KBOU.FW.W.0012.130622T1800Z-130623T0200Z/
/O.CON.KBOU.FW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-130622T0200Z/
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-
GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-
ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET-
335 PM MDT FRI JUN 21 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE HIGH MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS AND PALMER DIVIDE... 
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR
WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND
PALMER DIVIDE...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER IS CONTINUING A RED FLAG
WARNING THIS EVENING AND HAS ISSUED ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING FOR
WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...WHICH WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM NOON
TO 8 PM MDT SATURDAY.

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 211...213...214 AND 241.

* TIMING...UNTIL 2000 THIS EVENING...THEN FROM 1200 TO 2000
  SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH DURING
  THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 6 TO 10 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...THE GUSTY WINDS AND VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY 
  CAUSE RAPID FIRE GROWTH OR EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR OF ANY 
  EXISTING OR NEW FIRES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES CAN
CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

$$

521 
WWUS85 KBOU 220157
RFWBOU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
757 PM MDT FRI JUN 21 2013

...DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON SATURDAY...

.PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER COLORADO...
BRINGING WARM AND DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNCHANGED AGAIN ON SATURDAY... BRINGING NO
RELIEF TO THE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS FUEL MOISTURE CONDITIONS THAT
ARE IN PLACE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO. MILD
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL CAUSE HUMIDITY RECOVERY TO BE POOR
OVERNIGHT...AND WARM TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITIES WILL CAUSE RED FLAG CONDITIONS TO RE-DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

COZ211-213-214-241-221000-
/O.EXP.KBOU.FW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-130622T0200Z/
/O.CON.KBOU.FW.W.0012.130622T1800Z-130623T0200Z/
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-
GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-
ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET-
757 PM MDT FRI JUN 21 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT
SATURDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE HIGH MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS AND PALMER DIVIDE...
...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WIND
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND
PALMER DIVIDE...

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 211...213...214 AND 241.

* TIMING...FROM 1200 TO 2000 SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 3 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...THE GUSTY WINDS AND VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY 
  CAUSE RAPID FIRE GROWTH OR EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR OF ANY 
  EXISTING OR NEW FIRES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES CAN
CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
330 AM MDT FRI JUN 21 2013

.SHORT TERM...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS A
BROAD UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION
AND RESULTANT SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OVER COLORADO. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO ATTM AND THIS HAS KEPT MUCH
OF THE PLAINS UNDER A NORTH TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS HAS
USHERED IN HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
60S OVER THE PLAINS AND 40S AND 50S FURTHER WEST TOWARDS THE HILLS.
CURIOUS THING IS THAT OUR PW VALUES FROM GPS IPW TRENDS HAVE
INCREASED ALMOST A HALF INCH IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. WOULD EXPECT
SOME MIXING OUT BUT MAYBE NOT AS MUCH AS THE MODELS THINK.
SIMULATED WRF IMAGERY EVEN SHOWING A FEW CELLS EVEN OVER THE
URBAN CORRIDOR/PALMER DIVIDE WITH MORE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FAR NE
PLAINS. WITH THE GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FURTHER EAST CAN'T
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER WITH A KIND
OF DRY LINE SETTING UP AND PROGGED CAPES FROM 1000-2000J/KG. WITH
THE INSTABILITY MAY BE ABLE TO GENERATE A SEVERE STORM AND LATEST
SPC OUTLOOK ALSO INDICATING THIS POTENTIAL. MAY ADD AN ISOLATED
HIGH BASED STORM FURTHER WEST TOWARDS THE URBAN CORRIDOR AS WELL
THOUGH STILL LOOKS REMOTE.

FOR TONIGHT...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL END DURING THE EVENING WITH
NO UPPER AIR SUPPORT TO CARRY ANY STORMS BEYOND THE USUAL EVENING
TIMING. WEAK SURGE TO MOVE IN BEHIND EVENING CONVECTION WITH SOME
REPLENISHMENT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...NOT A LOT OF HOPE FOR RAIN DURING THE NEXT WEEK OVER
NORTHERN COLORADO WITH A CONTINUED DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS COLORADO AS NEW PACIFIC ENERGY EMERGES ALONG THE NORTHERN
WEST COAST. WILL STILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED POPS OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST PLAINS WITH HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS FURTHER EAST. THE
RIDGE ALOFT AMPLIFIES OVER THE ENTIRE REGION BY LATER NEXT WEEK
WITH CONTINUED DRY AND HOT. THE ONLY GOOD NEWS IS THE WINDS MAY BE
LIGHTER REDUCING THE FIRE DANGER A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION...SURFACE WINDS STILL NORTHWEST AT KDEN/KBJC UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE LOW NOW ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY.
WINDS SHOULD STILL BACK AROUND MORE SOUTHWEST BEFORE 12Z BEFORE
BECOMING VARIABLE AND LIGHT BY MID MORNING. NOT A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORT RANGE MODELS
SHOW ABOUT EVERY DIRECTION POSSIBLE. WILL STILL WITH THE SW TO NW
IN THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE MIXING THAT EXPECTED TO OCCUR. MAY BE
AN ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES ARE SO
SMALL AND ISOLATED THAT WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS FOR NOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WILL UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND ALSO ADD HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AS
WELL WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS YESTERDAY. ZONE 216 WILL HAVE LOW
ENOUGH RH BUT WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA. QUESTIONS STILL
SURROUND LINCOLN COUNTY WITH CERTAINLY LOW ENOUGH RH/GUSTY WINDS
BUT UNCERTAIN ABOUT FUELS AS THEY HAD RECEIVED GOOD RAINS A FEW
DAYS AGO. FUEL STATUS HAS NOT BEEN UPDATED FOR ZONES 246/247 SINCE
APRIL OF 2012. FOR SATURDAY...WINDS LOOK SLIGHTLY LOWER SO WILL
NOT GO WITH ANY WATCH FOR NOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NO ISSUES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
COZ214-241.

&&

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM....ENTREKIN
AVIATION...ENTREKIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
446 AM MDT FRI JUN 21 2013

COZ030>051-221100-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-
WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-
GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-
SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/
GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE
9000 FEET-LARIMER AND BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-
JEFFERSON AND WEST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR
CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-
LARIMER COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-
BOULDER AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD
COUNTY-
NORTH DOUGLAS COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND
ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-
ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET-
NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-
CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-
SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN COUNTY-
LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS COUNTY-
446 AM MDT FRI JUN 21 2013

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...PARK COUNTY AND PALMER
DIVIDE...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS OF COLORADO BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SEVERE STORM OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS.

HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BECAUSE OF LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING
OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND NORTH...MIDDLE AND SOUTH PARKS. RED
FLAG WARNINGS WILL BE IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
THESE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT COOLING ACROSS THE PLAINS
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE THE VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHEAST PLAINS OF THE STATE ON
THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.