Flash Flood Warning 23, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

864 
WGUS75 KBOU 232150
FFSBOU

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
350 PM MDT FRI AUG 23 2013

COC069-232155-
/O.CAN.KBOU.FF.W.0023.000000T0000Z-130823T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LARIMER CO-
350 PM MDT FRI AUG 23 2013

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR CENTRAL LARIMER COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED WITHIN THE HIGH PARK BURN SCAR IN CENTRAL 
LARIMER COUNTY...AND THEREFORE FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO 
POSE A THREAT. 

FROM ONE QUARTER TO SIX TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN FELL IN JUST OVER 
AN HOUR ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PARK BURN SCAR. 
HOWEVER...LOCAL AUTHORITIES DID NOT OBSERVE ANY FLOODING AT THIS 
TIME.  

THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.  

LAT...LON 4071 10521 4054 10541 4060 10560 4078 10538
      4076 10526

$$

BAKER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1013 AM MDT FRI AUG 23 2013

.UPDATE...WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER...HAVE ADJUSTED MAX
TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES...MAINLY OVER THE DENVER METRO
AREA AND FOOTHILLS.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE STILL SHOWING PLENTY OF MOISTURE ROTATING
AROUND THE STATE...HOWEVER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER
NORTHEAST CO ARE DOWN 0.3 INCHES FROM YESTERDAY AT THE SAME TIME.
MODELS STILL ADVERTISING DRIER AIR MOVING NORTH FROM NEW
MEXICO...HOWEVER BELIEVE LAST NIGHTS/THIS MORNINGS MCS OVER THE
STATE MAY HAVE DELAYED IT A BIT. STILL EXPECTING DRIER AIR TO
BEGIN TO MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH LATER TODAY WHICH WILL LIMIT
STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE PLAINS...MAINLY SOUTH OF I76. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND OVER CHEYENNE RIDGE WILL ALLOW
SCATTERED STORMS TO ONCE AGAIN FORM TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE AIRPORT SHOULD BEGIN
TRANSITIONING TO BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AS SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER
THE EASTERN PLAINS CYCLONE INTO THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FROM 21-01Z. HEAVY RAIN
AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS. HIGH-RES MODELS POINTING TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF PARK AND
JEFFERSON COUNTIES WITH SLIGHTLY MORE COVERAGE EARLIER ON THEN
BRING IT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE METRO AREAS. THIS WOULD LIKELY TURN
WINDS BACK FROM THE SOUTH. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT AND BRING CLEARING SKIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM MDT FRI AUG 23 2013/

SHORT TERM...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL AS THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORM OVER
SOUTHERN ALBERTA DURING THE DAY AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL
EXTEND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO
COLORADO. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER EASTERN COLORADO.
DRIER OVER NEW MEXICO WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY.

THE LATEST RAP SHOWS THE AIRMASS WILL STAY MOIST TODAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AN INCH TO 1.25 AND CAPES OF 1000 TO
1500 J/KG. THIS WOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
THE NAM AND GFS HAS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.75 TO ONE INCH
WITH CAPES LESS THAN 700 J/KG. WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS WILL PROBABLY
BE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS. WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. ALL THE MODELS
HAVE SOME DRYING OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES AND IT SPREADS NORTH
DURING THE EVENING...THUS WILL HAVE THE LOWEST POPS HERE. EXPECT THE
CONVECTION TO END DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY. CLEARING SKIES THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW ENOUGH SUN TO PUSH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S AND PERHAPS LOWER 90S. AS DRIER MOVES INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 50S.

LONG TERM...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS SATURDAY MORNING. IT MOVES INTO EASTERN KANSAS BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA
ALL FOUR PERIODS. THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELD KEEP BENIGN
SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS PROGGED TO BE PRETTY MUCH NORMAL DIURNAL
PATTERNS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...MODELS SHOW A FAIR
AMOUNTS LATE DAY SATURDAY AND LATE DAY SUNDAY...BUT IT IS IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS.  THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINT VALUES ARE
PROGGED IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S F FOR THE PLAINS LATE DAY
SATURDAY...AND A TAD HIGHER LATE DAY SUNDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE IN THE 0.65 TO 1.10 INCH RANGE OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST VALUES ARE OUT EAST. THE CAPE IS
PRETTY LOW FOR LATE DAY SATURDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER
THE FOOTHILLS. THEY GET UP 750 J/KG AT BEST THERE...WITH VALUES
OVER THE PLAINS FROM 100-500 J/KG. THERE IS EVEN LESS CAPE LATE
DAY SUNDAY FOR ALL AREAS. MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS PRETTY SPARSE ON
THE QPF FIELDS. THERE IS SOME LATE DAY SATURDAY OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA...THEN A TAD BIT LESS LATE DAY SUNDAY. FOR
POPS...20-30%S IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD DO FOR THE LATE DAYS AND
0-10%S OVER THE PLAINS. FOR TEMPERATURES...SATURDAY'S HIGHS ARE
1-2 C WARMER THAN TODAY'S EXPECTED HIGHS. SUNDAY'S ARE CLOSE TO
SATURDAY'S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS
KEEP THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER KANSAS ALL FOUR DAYS. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STAYS AROUND FOR THE CWA AS WELL...BUT
MOISTURE IS SPARSE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

AVIATION...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS
MORNING...NOT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FROM 20-01Z.
HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND BRING
CLEARING SKIES. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

HYDROLOGY...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND SPREAD EASTWARD. HEAVY RAIN WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS WITH 1 INCH IN 15 TO 20 MINUTES OCCURRING.
FLASHING FLOODING COULD OCCUR IF A STRONG STORM FORMS OVER THE BURN
AREAS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM....RJK
UPDATE/AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1046 AM MDT FRI AUG 23 2013

COZ030>051-241700-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-
WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-
GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-
SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/
GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE
9000 FEET-LARIMER AND BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-
JEFFERSON AND WEST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR
CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-
LARIMER COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-
BOULDER AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD
COUNTY-
NORTH DOUGLAS COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND
ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-
ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET-
NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-
CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-
SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN COUNTY-
LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS COUNTY-
1046 AM MDT FRI AUG 23 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO FORM OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORMS WILL SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AFFECTING THE
FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF I25 AS
WELL AS NORTH OF I76. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN...AND THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS OVER THE FOOTHILLS BURN AREAS AND ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE. WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH
THE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE PLAINS
CAN EXPECTED NO PRECIPITATION TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY
STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.