Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Boise, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
239 PM MDT THU SEP 5 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS
SO THIS WILL BE SHORT. UPPER LEVEL JET OVER OREGON BY EARLY
EVENING WILL BRING 60 KNOTS OF BULK LOW LEVEL SHEAR. MDCARS T/TD
SOUNDING NEAR 17Z MODIFIED FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE BROUGHT CAPE TO
1700 J/KG AND LI TO -6C ALONG WITH PW OF 1.3 INCHES. THIS WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS SUCH AS THE ONE THE NWS BOISE WARNED FOR OVER
OWYHEE COUNTY AS OF 236 PM. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST OREGON TIL 9 PM MDT/8PM
PDT. WITH THE HIGH PWAT AND ANY TRAINING STORMS THERE IS STILL A
FLASH FLOOD THREAT ESPECIALLY CENTRAL IDAHO SO THERE IS A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT/5 PM PDT. COOLER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED STORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER NORTHERN
TERRAIN.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
WITH LARGE SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE UPPER LOW CENTER
CURRENTLY NEAR THE OREGON COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
IDAHO SUNDAY. DRIER WESTERLY FLOW AND LOWER HEIGHTS WILL KEEP DAYTIME
HIGHS NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHICH WILL TREND TEMPERATURES UP
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING AROUND
90 DEGREES IN THE LOWER VALLEYS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS DO
SHOW A WEAK CUTOFF LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WHILE THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER THE ROCKIES. SOUTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES MAY BRING SOME MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
AREA BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 06Z
TONIGHT WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AFTERWARD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE HAIL WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHEAST 5-10KTS EXCEPT ERRATIC AND GUSTY
UP TO 40KTS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH OVERNIGHT...AROUND 05Z AT KBKE...AND 08Z AT KBOI...AND 10Z
AT KTWF. SURFACE WINDS WEST 10-20KTS BEHIND THE FRONT. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 20-30KTS AT 10K FT MSL THROUGH TONIGHT DECREASING FRIDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ011>016-028>030-
     033.
OR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM MDT /5 PM PDT/ THIS EVENING
     ORZ061>064.
&&

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....TL/WH
AVIATION.....TL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
238 PM MDT THU SEP 5 2013

IDZ011>016-028>030-033-ORZ061>064-062045-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-LOWER TREASURE VALLEY ID-BOISE MOUNTAINS-
UPPER TREASURE VALLEY-SOUTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY-
CAMAS PRAIRIE-OWYHEE MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY-
UPPER WEISER RIVER-HARNEY COUNTY-BAKER COUNTY-MALHEUR COUNTY-
LOWER TREASURE VALLEY OR-
238 PM MDT THU SEP 5 2013 /138 PM PDT THU SEP 5 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
IDAHO...SOUTHWEST IDAHO...WEST CENTRAL IDAHO...NORTHEAST OREGON
AND SOUTHEAST OREGON.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SEE
THE LATEST FLASH FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT...BOIFFABOI...FOR DETAILS. IN
ADDITION TO THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT/ 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER THROUGH
ESTABLISHED PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
948 AM MDT THU SEP 05 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0925 AM     HEAVY RAIN       8 W MIDDLETON           43.71N 116.78W
09/05/2013  U0.00 INCH       CANYON             ID   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY RAIN AT INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 44 AND OLD HIGHWAY
            30.

0912 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NNE MCCHORD BUTTE     44.57N 117.05W
09/05/2013  M47.00 INCH      WASHINGTON         ID   MESONET

            THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST 41 MPH ON DENNETT CREEK RAWS ALONG
            WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IN THE HOUR ENDING AT 912 AM. RAIN
            SINCE MIDNIGHT...0.81 INCHES.

&&

VMILLS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1210 PM MDT THU SEP 05 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0912 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NNE MCCHORD BUTTE     44.57N 117.05W
09/05/2013  M0.47 INCH       WASHINGTON         ID   MESONET

            THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST 41 MPH ON DENNETT CREEK RAWS ALONG
            WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IN THE HOUR ENDING AT 912 AM. RAIN
            SINCE MIDNIGHT...0.81 INCHES.

&&

VMILLS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
107 PM MDT THU SEP 5 2013

ORZ063-052000-
MALHEUR OR-
107 PM MDT THU SEP 5 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BOISE HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  EAST CENTRAL MALHEUR COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OREGON...

UNTIL 200 PM MDT/100 PM PDT/.

AT 1203 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 32 MILES NORTHEAST OF MCDERMITT...MOVING NORTH AT
30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  FIVE POINTS AROUND 115 PM MDT...
  MOUSE TRAP BUTTE AROUND 130 PM MDT...
  GRASSY MOUNTAIN AROUND 135 PM MDT.

LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. TAKE SHELTER INSIDE A
BUILDING OR VEHICLE WHEN THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH. LIGHTNING CAN OCCUR
15 MILES OR MORE AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF A STORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

LAT...LON 4296 11747 4292 11702 4225 11724 4231 11757
TIME...MOT...LOC 1907Z 195DEG 27KT 4242 11739

VM