Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
308 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

.DISCUSSION...

DECENT HEATING TODAY HAS ALLOWED FOR AMPLE CONVECTION ACROSS C AL
COMBINED WITH DISTURBANCES IN THE NW UPPER FLOW. WE ARE UNSTABLE
ENOUGH TODAY FOR SOME TSRA TO BECOME STRONG WITH MAYBE AN ISOLATED
SEVERE DOWNBURST. LARGE HAIL IS NOT A ZERO BUT LESS LIKELY. MAIN
THREAT ACROSS THE BOARD IS LIGHTNING...ESPECIALLY WITH NATIONAL
NIGHT OUT TONIGHT. STORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT COULD
LINGER A LITTLE INTO THE EVENING DUE TO POSSIBLE COLLIDING
BOUNDARIES. ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE AND NW FLOW DISTURBANCES WILL
CONTINUE FOR WED/THU. FOR FRI/SAT WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO A MORE
ZONAL/WSW FLOW AND WEAK UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. BUT
WITH HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SCATTERED CONVECTION IS STILL
IN THE WORKS. AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND...A
FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH BUT WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL HAVE TROUBLE MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE CWA AND STALL
IN THE FAR NORTH TO CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE SLOWLY CREEPING
SMALL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH TUESDAY AND THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...THIS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT ALONG
WITH THE GULF MOISTURE AND HEAT FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT. THE PERIODIC
WET FORECAST IS HERE TO STAY FOR THE DURATION.

08

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING JUST S LITTLE BIT
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR TOI AND MGM WHERE SATELLITE IS SHOWING
A DEVELOPING CU FIELD. THESE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PEAK
HEATING WITH LESS COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY BR OR HZ
POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH GUSTS
POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     72  90  72  92  72 /  50  60  30  50  30
ANNISTON    73  90  72  91  72 /  50  60  30  50  30
BIRMINGHAM  73  91  73  92  74 /  50  60  30  50  30
TUSCALOOSA  74  95  74  94  74 /  40  50  20  50  20
CALERA      73  92  73  92  73 /  50  60  30  50  20
AUBURN      72  89  71  91  72 /  30  60  20  50  20
MONTGOMERY  75  93  74  93  74 /  30  60  20  50  20
TROY        73  92  73  93  73 /  30  60  20  50  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

08/88

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
100 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

ALZ011>015-017>050-071800-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
100 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED AREAS OF DAMAGING WINDS GREATER THAN 60 MPH AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 8 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS UNLIKELY
THIS AFTERNOON.

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