Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1240 PM CDT SAT JUL 13 2013

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SET UP TODAY CONSISTS OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW RETROGRADING TO THE
WEST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND. AT
THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM EASTERN
CANADA INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SPINNING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GOM. THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOW
SITUATED ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-20/59 CORRIDOR WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
LOW 70S TO THE SOUTH AND THE MID/UPPER 60S TO THE NORTH. THE 12Z
KBMX SOUNDING INDICATED A PW OF 1.14 INCHES WHILE A LAPSE SOUNDING
FROM TOI SHOWED 1.47. MOISTURE VALUES SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE
FROM SE TO NW TODAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH BACK
TO THE NW DUE TO THE EASTERLY SFC FLOW BETWEEN THE LOW IN THE GULF
AND THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH. WITH CAPE VALUES OF GENERALLY
2000-3000 J/KG AND INCREASING MOISTURE...SCATTERED CONVECTION CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES
TO POPS FOR TODAY...KEPT THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE SE WITH THE
LOWEST IN THE NW. UPDATES ARE OUT.

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&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE AND BECOME VFR AT ALL
TERMINALS WITHIN THE HOUR. GENERALLY LOOKING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST THRU THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT LIFTS NW ACROSS THE
CWA. RIGHT NOW...BEST CHANCES ARE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HAVE ADDED
VCTS TO ALL SITES EXCEPT TCL AS THE BEST MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE
EAST. HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH TODAY'S CONVECTION. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF
THE EAST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS.

WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO BE TO OUR WEST BY TONIGHT
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...LOOK
FOR MVFR CIGS TO MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
TIMING OF LOWERING CIGS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED THIS EVENING.

19

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
113 PM CDT SAT JUL 13 2013

ALZ011>015-017>050-141815-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
113 PM CDT SAT JUL 13 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
141 PM CDT SAT JUL 13 2013

ALZ033-131930-
PERRY AL-
141 PM CDT SAT JUL 13 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PERRY COUNTY UNTIL 230 PM CDT...

AT 141 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HEIBERGER...OR 11 MILES EAST OF
MARION...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  MARION...
  HEIBERGER...
  VAIDEN...
  SUTTLE...
  RADFORD...

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3265 8752 3266 8747 3283 8747 3283 8742
      3287 8742 3287 8732 3283 8731 3284 8702
      3274 8701 3264 8705 3260 8704 3257 8708
      3249 8711 3248 8742 3247 8742 3246 8753
TIME...MOT...LOC 1841Z 084DEG 10KT 3268 8714

19

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
221 PM CDT SAT JUL 13 2013

ALZ034-035-131945-
BIBB AL-CHILTON AL-
221 PM CDT SAT JUL 13 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN CHILTON AND SOUTHEASTERN
BIBB COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

AT 218 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR CHILTON COUNTY MOTOR SPORTS PARK...OR 10 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF JEMISON...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  MAPLESVILLE...
  PARNELL...
  LAWLEY...
  TALLADEGA NATIONAL FOREST...
  STANTON...

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3284 8703 3294 8702 3296 8674 3266 8674
      3266 8701
TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 091DEG 8KT 3284 8685

56