Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
640 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST ALABAMA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT ANY OF
THE TAF SITES UNLESS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. WILL MONITOR
TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS TO KTOI AND KMGM TAFS THROUGH THE
EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR FOG
POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK AT SOME LOCATIONS. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF
IFR CIGS SOMEWHERE AROUND DAYBREAK AS WELL BUT THIS WILL BE TOUGH
TO PINPOINT.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY PLAYING THE SIT AND WAIT GAME THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA. CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES THIS MORNING LEFT SEVERAL
SOUTHWARD PROPAGATING BOUNDARIES...CLEARLY DISTINGUISHABLE ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE...THROUGH AN AIRMASS WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S HAVE PUSHED SURFACE CAPE VALUES OVER 4000J/KG. AS OF
2PM CDT...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR EAST CENTRAL
ALABAMA ON THE MOST NORTHERN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. AS STORMS DEVELOP
AND TAP INTO THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30+
KTS EXPECT ACTIVITY TO BECOME ORGANIZED WITH AN INCREASED THREAT
OF DAMAGING WINDS.

USING THE NORTHERN MOST BOUNDARY...AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
WEDOWEE TO CALERA TO MILLPORT HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG ANY OF THE MULTIPLE
BOUNDARIES PUSHING SOUTHWARD. EXPECT POPS AND WEATHER TO BE
ADJUSTED...ALONG WITH WORDING IN THE HWO...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS STORMS GROW IN INTENSITY AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD. GIVEN THE
SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF STORMS...WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH...WITH SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUING AFTER SUNSET...ALTHOUGH A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IS EXPECTED.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BE ACTIVE WITH ANOTHER MCS
CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS MISSOURI. WILL HAVE TO KEEP OUR EYES TO
THE NORTH TONIGHT...WATCHING HOW THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES. SOME
DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW IT EVOLVES...AND
WHETHER WE HAVE A SIMILAR SITUATION AS THIS MORNING OR THE SYSTEM
DISSIPATES NORTH OF THE AREA. IF IT WERE TO MAINTAIN ORGANIZATION
OVERNIGHT AS IT PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD...IT WOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT
NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AROUND SUNRISE. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS MAKING A DIG SOUTHWARD TOMORROW...A COLD FRONT
WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA...INCREASING SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT. WHETHER IT IS CONVECTION ALONG MORNING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...THE SURFACE FRONT...OR BOTH...EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TOMORROW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WINDS.

COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACES ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. FRONT
SHOULD FINALLY BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE
ADDITIONAL LIFT PROVIDED BY THE FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATING NEAR THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL KEEP
AT LEAST CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST PERIODS. WITH THE
FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO NEXT
WEEK...NOT MANY CHANGES NEEDED IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. WITH RAIN
CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO LOOK COOLER FOR
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  92  68  89  66 /  20  50  40  30  20
ANNISTON    71  92  69  88  67 /  20  50  50  40  20
BIRMINGHAM  73  93  70  89  67 /  20  50  50  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  74  94  71  91  68 /  30  50  60  30  10
CALERA      72  92  71  88  68 /  30  50  60  40  20
AUBURN      71  93  70  88  68 /  50  50  60  50  30
MONTGOMERY  74  95  74  91  70 /  40  50  60  60  30
TROY        73  94  74  90  70 /  50  50  60  60  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

87/14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
646 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013

ALZ011>015-017>050-290000-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
646 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
DEMOPOLIS TO ALEXANDER CITY LINE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SURFACE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE NEEDED
THIS AFTERNOON...EARLY TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
819 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0818 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NE HURTSBORO          32.25N 85.40W
06/27/2013                   RUSSELL            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ALONG SHADY GROVE ROAD ON THE EAST SIDE OF
            HURTSBORO.

&&

GRANTHAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
820 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NE HURTSBORO          32.25N 85.40W
06/27/2013                   RUSSELL            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ALONG SHADY GROVE ROAD ON THE EAST SIDE OF
            HURTSBORO.

&&

GRANTHAM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
821 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013

ALZ050-280200-
BARBOUR AL-
821 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BARBOUR COUNTY UNTIL 900 PM
CDT...

AT 816 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MIDWAY TO COMER TO
HAWKINSVILLE...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH
FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  EUFAULA...
  CLIO...
  BARBOUR COUNTY PUBLIC LAKE DAM...
  LAKEPOINT RESORT STATE PARK...
  WHITE OAK...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3162 8574 3173 8571 3178 8566 3186 8567
      3199 8559 3201 8543 3205 8543 3202 8505
      3194 8508 3189 8513 3177 8513 3174 8519
      3169 8522 3170 8541 3161 8542
TIME...MOT...LOC 0120Z 341DEG 18KT 3206 8556 3199 8535
          3205 8521

61

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