Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
635 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA AND MOVE TOWARD
THE CAROLINA'S BY FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL SIMULTANEOUSLY
MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN AREAS AND SLOWLY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
THIS FRONT SLOWLY TURNS INTO AN EFFECTIVE LEFTOVER PSEUDO-TROPICAL
BOUNDARY...WHICH DISSIPATES AS SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES OVER BY SUNDAY.

WARM AND VERY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVER NEAR 1.80 INCHES. THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES ON MONDAY/TUESDAY BUT WILL HAVE A HARD TIME COMPLETELY
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA.

75

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

RATHER TRICKY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM YESTERDAYS CONVECTION WAS NEAR THE I-85 CORRIDOR
WHILE NUMEROUS SMALLER SCALE BOUNDARIES WERE ALL OVER CENTRAL
ALABAMA. A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM CENTRAL TENNESSEE INTO
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. A DEFORMATION ZONE WAS LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ANDREA. AN MCV
WAS SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA WHILE A SHORT
WAVE AND UPPER TROUGH WERE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS.

THE MODELS HAD SOME AGREEMENT THAT SOME DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
WERE LOCATED BETWEEN THE MAIN FEATURES...ANDREA EAST AND THE UPPER
TROUGH WEST. THE MODEL SUITE WAS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
ANDREA WILL EXIT STAGE RIGHT AND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FOLLOW ON ITS
HEELS...IN A SOMEWHAT WEAKEN FORM. THEREFORE...THE RAIN CHANCES
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT
RANGE.

WILL GO CLOSER TO THE HIS RES SOLUTIONS THAT THE ACTIVITY WEST WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN IN THE EVENING AND THE SHOWERS EAST WILL ALSO WEAKEN
BUT MAY LAST A BIT LONGER. SO HAVE HIGH POPS EAST AND WEST AND WILL
KEEP CHANCE ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ALL
LOCATIONS FRIDAY AS UPPER TROUGH SWINGS BY. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS THIS PERIOD AS MEAN MOISTURE PUSHES SOUTHWARD
AND DECREASES OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA.

75

LONG TERM...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MOISTURE INCREASES AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. WENT WITH NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES EACH PERIOD...WITH
CHANCE OF DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE EXTENDED MODELS
WERE NOT IN COMPLETE AGREEMENT AND WITH THE MOISTURE CONTENT...THINK
THIS IS A GOOD START.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS EVENING. THERE IS A COLD FRONT JUST TO OUR WEST. THIS FEATURE
WILL SLIDE INTO THE STATE TONIGHT AND STALL AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE THAT WILL PASS THROUGH ON FRIDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY FROM
TCL TO EET WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SHOULD BE PAST
THESE AIRPORTS BY 00Z...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE.

MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH. WITH THE FRONT IN
PLACE AND SHORTWAVE APPROACHING TOMORROW...A DECENT SHOT OF SOME
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. WILL REFINE THE TIMING A LITTLE MORE ON
THE 06Z ISSUANCE.

88

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
641 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013

ALZ011>015-017>050-072345-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
641 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
538 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013

ALZ030-062330-
SUMTER AL-
538 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL SUMTER COUNTY UNTIL 630
PM CDT...

AT 538 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR BOYD...OR 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF LIVINGSTON...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  LIVINGSTON...
  THE UNIVERSITY OF WEST ALABAMA...
  BLUFFPORT...
  COATOPA...
  DUG HILL...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3276 8836 3264 8808 3262 8808 3259 8806
      3260 8801 3259 8795 3242 8805 3261 8839
TIME...MOT...LOC 2238Z 301DEG 17KT 3265 8825

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
714 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013

ALZ023-070100-
TUSCALOOSA AL-
714 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL TUSCALOOSA COUNTY UNTIL
800 PM CDT...

AT 714 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES WEST OF LAKE LURLEEN STATE PARK...OR 8 MILES
EAST OF GORDO...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  NORTHPORT...
  TUSCALOOSA...
  HOLT...
  LAKE LURLEEN STATE PARK...
  COKER...

TORRENTIAL RAIN...IN A VERY SHORT TIME...MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS
SUCH AS DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR
VEHICLE ON A FLOODED ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3342 8775 3322 8737 3311 8762 3307 8776
      3327 8784 3328 8784 3342 8784
TIME...MOT...LOC 0014Z 315DEG 10KT 3331 8776

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
721 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013

ALZ032>034-070100-
BIBB AL-HALE AL-PERRY AL-
721 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN PERRY...HALE AND
SOUTHWESTERN BIBB COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

AT 720 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LOW GAP TO AKRON...AND
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  GREENSBORO...
  MARION...
  MERTZ...
  SAWYERVILLE...
  HARRISBURG...

TORRENTIAL RAIN...IN A VERY SHORT TIME...MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS
SUCH AS DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR
VEHICLE ON A FLOODED ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3264 8778 3263 8775 3265 8774 3266 8775
      3265 8778 3292 8773 3302 8728 3259 8708
      3259 8774 3261 8775 3261 8778
TIME...MOT...LOC 0020Z 339DEG 15KT 3295 8735 3286 8766