Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
346 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013

.DISCUSSION...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA. MOST ARE BRIEF AND PRODUCING ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. ALTHOUGH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND
LIGHTNING HAVE DEVELOPED. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING ACROSS
MISSISSIPPI HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS
WITH A CONSIDERABLE DECREASE IN LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. HAVE MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO WEATHER AND POP GRIDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS LINE MOVING INTO
NORTHWEST CENTRAL ALABAMA MUCH QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND
MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATED. DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
LINE...WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING AND
MERGING WITH THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

THROUGH THE EVENING...EXPECT THIS LINE TO GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN AND
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS WIND SHEAR DECREASES AND LOW LEVEL JET DOES
NOT SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL BACK
TO OUR WEST CURRENTLY...AND MODELS SHOW REDEVELOPMENT ALONG IT LATE
TONIGHT AS IT APPROACHES CENTRAL ALABAMA. NOT CERTAIN HOW THE
AIRMASS WILL RECOVER GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WHICH WILL
SPREAD ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHEAR...ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT
SHOULD REMAIN DISORGANIZED AND BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. TIMING WILL
LIKELY NEED ADJUSTING LATER TONIGHT ONCE THE FRONT CROSSES THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD SUNDAY...HANGING UP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. WITH LIMITED WIND
SHEAR...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES...AS WEAK
RIDGING SHIFTS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.

FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...FORECAST GETS COMPLICATED WITH A WEAK
TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF...HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE
NORTHEASTERN SEABOARD...AND A TROUGH CROSSING THE PLAINS. MODELS
TAKE THE TROPICAL SYSTEM ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA...WITH LITTLE TO NO
EFFECTS SEEN LOCALLY. WEDGING ALONG THE APPALACHIANS COULD KEEP TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE EAST...BUT IT LOOKS WEAK AND QUICKLY
GETS SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE TROPICAL LOW AND APPROACHING SHORT WAVE.
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A WEAK FRONT
CROSSING THE AREA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
60S.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE RADAR IS CURRENTLY SPECKLED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP VERTICALLY WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE ON ANY
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING THE TERMINALS IS RATHER LOW AND HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH NEAR SUNSET BEFORE A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 07-08Z
AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...MVFR
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES.

05/MA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  82  64  83  61 /  60  80  50  20   0
ANNISTON    72  84  67  86  63 /  60  80  50  20  10
BIRMINGHAM  73  84  65  85  65 /  60  80  50  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  74  85  65  85  65 /  60  80  40  10  10
CALERA      72  85  68  86  64 /  60  80  50  20  10
AUBURN      71  85  69  86  68 /  20  60  50  30  10
MONTGOMERY  73  88  69  88  67 /  20  50  50  30  10
TROY        71  88  69  87  66 /  20  50  50  30  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1239 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013

ALZ011>015-017>050-021745-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
1239 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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