Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1230 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2013

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE THE STORY OF 2 OR 3 DIFFERENT TALES.
WE START OUT THIS MORNING WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL ALABAMA AS WELL AS THE
MAIN ONGOING SITUATION...THE SQUALL LINE THAT HAS DEVELOPED IN
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. AS EXPECTED...THE MORNING CLOUD COVER IS
HAMPERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SFC BASED INSTABILITY...BUT THE SQUALL
LINE DOES HAVE THE ENERGY FROM THE PARENT SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY WITH WHICH TO WORK.  THE LINE SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED BUT
WILL CARRY A LOW-END HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT.   THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE HOWEVER AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTED BY WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY ARE STILL
SUGGESTING DRY AIR WILL WORK INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA ALOFT AND WE COULD
STILL SEE SOME MIXING OUT OF THE CLOUDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE.  IF THIS
DOES OCCUR...A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA COULD SEE SFC BASED CAPES IN
THE 1000-1750 J/KG RANGE.  WHEN COUPLED WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND VEERING SURFACE WINDS...THIS COMBINATION COULD SPELL
SOME FAIRLY LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY STORM
THAT TAPS INTO THAT ENERGY.  IF YOU DO SEE CLEARING IN YOUR AREA AND
THE SUN COMES OUT...THEN THAT WILL INCREASE YOUR CHANCE FOR A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO BE EXTENDED TO YOU AS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
RIPEN FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PROPER
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE
AS WE MOVE TOWARDS THE MIDNIGHT HOUR TONIGHT.

UPDATES ARE OUT.

27

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THIS IS GOING TO BE A VERY IDEALIZED TAF FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE FIRST 6 TO 8 HOURS.  WITH MVFR CIGS BECOMING THINNER AND
THINNER...SUNSHINE IS STARTING TO SQUEEZE THROUGH THE CLOUD DECK.
THIS WILL LIKELY HELP TO DESTABILIZE THINGS...ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED
TS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  PREVAILING
TAF LINES REALLY REVOLVE AROUND THE LINE OF TS OVER NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...WHICH WILL CONTINUE PUSHING TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST THROUGH 00Z.  MAY HAVE TO ADJUST A BIT IF THESE SCATTERED
STORMS BEGIN POPPING UP AHEAD OF THE LINE.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WELL...GIVING US
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF FROPA...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE
THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  CLEARING IS
LIKELY A FEW HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
106 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2013

ALZ011-181845-
MARION AL-
106 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN MARION COUNTY UNTIL 145
PM CDT...

AT 104 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR TREMONT...OR 13 MILES SOUTH OF RED BAY...MOVING
EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...
ALONG WITH FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  HACKLEBURG...
  SHOTTSVILLE...
  PIGEYE...
  TESSNER...
  BEAR CREEK...

&&

LAT...LON 3432 8766 3431 8764 3421 8763 3418 8820
      3430 8819 3433 8817
TIME...MOT...LOC 1806Z 261DEG 37KT 3426 8815