Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
308 PM CST SUN JAN 13 2013

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF WAITING...THE COLD FRONT IS ON OUR DOORSTEP.
QUITE AN IMPRESSIVE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ALONG THE FRONT TOO -- AT
ONE POINT IT WAS 73 DEGREES IN COLUMBUS MS AND 48 IN TUPELO. THAT
COLD AIR SHOULD SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES
THIS EVENING...AND PLOD EASTWARD FROM THERE.

MODELS ARE NOW FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TAKING THE FRONT DOWN TO ABOUT
AUBURN-TROY BY THIS TIME TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BEFORE SLOWING IT
DOWN EVEN MORE AND EVENTUALLY PAUSING. THAT SLOW DOWN AND
PAUSE...AS WELL AS THE HIGHLY ANAFRONTAL NATURE OF THE
BOUNDARY...KEEPS CENTRAL ALABAMA RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE AXIS
OF MAX RAIN POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ACTUALLY, ITS
BEEN A WHILE SINCE I'VE HAD SO MANY CONSECUTIVE PERIODS OF 80+
PERCENT POPS (OUTSIDE OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM). MOST OF THE RAIN
WON'T BE PARTICULARLY HEAVY...BUT SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN THAT EACH BRING A HALF INCH OR MORE CAN ADD UP OVER
THE COURSE OF 48 HOURS. WE WILL HAVE TO HIGHLY CONSIDER A FLOOD
WATCH SOON IF THE RAIN AMOUNTS FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT
12-18 HOURS VERIFY OR ARE EXCEEDED.

WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH TEMPERATURE TRENDS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN FEW COUNTIES TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. COMPUTER
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRETTY SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT...TOPPED BY A WARMER LAYER. THE MODELS ARE
FORECASTING TEMPS TO GET PERILOUSLY CLOSE TO FREEZING UP AROUND
HAMILTON AND HALEYVILLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. RIGHT
NOW THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT TEMPS WILL STAY JUST ABOVE FREEZING AT
THE GROUND...AND THE RESULT WILL BE A COLD RAIN. BUT A DIFFERENCE
OF JUST A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER COULD RESULT IN A MUCH MORE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT. IT IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT...
BUT WE HAVE DECIDED TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME FREEZING
RAIN IN THE HWO FOR THAT AREA OF THE CWA. JUST DIDN'T WANT THE
FOLKS UP THERE TO GET BLINDSIDED IF CONDITIONS DID TURN COLDER AND
THERE ENDED UP BEING SOME ICING ISSUES.

WELL...YESTERDAYS 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF SUCKED ME IN. TODAY'S
RUN...AS WELL AS TODAY'S GFS AND NAM...NOW SHOW THAT SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES AND NORTHERN MEXICO WILL
CUTOFF AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN COASTAL STATES
ON THURSDAY. THE MODELS ARE HAVING A DICKENS OF A TIME HANDLING
THIS FEATURE...AND CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DROPS CONSIDERABLY
BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY (DURING THE TIME THIS UPPER LOW IS
NOW FORECAST TO APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA). NO NEED TO
GET TOO CARRIED AWAY WITH POPS. FORTUNATELY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
AIR MASS WILL HAVE MODIFIED ENOUGH BY THAT TIME SO THAT ANY PRECIP
THAT COMES THE END OF THE WEEK WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

IT IS NOT UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND UNTIL WE CAN FAIRLY SAFELY SAY THAT
CONDITIONS WILL BE COMPLETELY DRY. AFTER THAT...WE SIT AND WAIT
AND TRY TO FIGURE OUT WHICH DIRECTION THE REALLY COLD AIR GOES
AFTER IT DROPS INTO THE U.S. FROM CANADA.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR TO VFR CIGS PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING. COLD FRONT
AND HEAVY RAIN SHIELD REMAIN TO OUR WEST...ACROSS WESTERN
TENNESSEE AND MISSISSIPPI. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SCT SHOWERS ARE
DEVELOPING...AND HAVE INCLUDED PREVAILING VCSH AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THESE RAIN
BANDS...TRAINING OF MODERATE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AND COULD LEAD
TO REDUCED VIS AT ANY TERMINAL. WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS AND UPDATE
FOR THESE REDUCED FLIGHT CONDITIONS AS POSSIBLE. OVERALL...SHOULD
NOT BE A WASHOUT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BOARDER AREA OF RAIN WILL
REMAIN WEST OF ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. WINDS COULD BE
BREEZY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING UP
TO 20 KTS.

THE COLD FRONT AND RAIN SHIELD HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO PUSH EASTWARD
AND ADJUSTED WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST AND PREVAILING RA BACK SEVERAL
HOURS GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND NEAR TERM GUIDANCE. WITH ONSET OF
RAIN...EXPECT REDUCED VIS AND CIGS...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL NORTH
OF TOI...AND HAVE LEFT WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. GIVEN THE
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOIST FLOW...MVFR CIGS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT AT TOI. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...BUT TIMING IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     46  47  43  45  43 / 100 100 100 100  80
ANNISTON    49  50  45  47  46 / 100 100  80 100  70
BIRMINGHAM  45  46  41  45  42 / 100 100 100 100  80
TUSCALOOSA  44  45  40  43  41 / 100 100 100 100  90
CALERA      47  48  42  45  43 / 100 100  90 100  70
AUBURN      64  69  56  69  51 /  80  50  50  50  40
MONTGOMERY  58  60  49  56  48 /  90  60  50  50  40
TROY        65  69  57  74  51 /  70  50  50  50  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
220 PM CST SUN JAN 13 2013

ALZ011>015-017>050-142020-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
220 PM CST SUN JAN 13 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL OF
FLOODING WILL INCREASE BY MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
GREATEST FLOODING THREAT WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
NEAR AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 59 CORRIDOR.

THERE IS LOW CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING
ACROSS NORTHWEST CENTRAL ALABAMA AS COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME IN THE POSSIBILITY OF THIS
POTENTIAL THREAT. HOWEVER...THE RISK AREA WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF
A LINE FROM VERNON TO ARLEY.

HEAVY RAINFALL UPSTREAM AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
WILL CAUSE RISES ALONG THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER BASIN. THE UPPER PORTIONS
OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER ARE FORECAST TO GO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY MONDAY
MORNING...RESULTING IN MINOR FLOODING THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE NEEDED
MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO A FLOODING THREAT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
355 PM CST SUN JAN 13 2013

ALZ030-031-132230-
GREENE AL-SUMTER AL-
355 PM CST SUN JAN 13 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL SUMTER AND SOUTHERN
GREENE COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CST...

AT 351 PM CST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR EPES...OR 9 MILES NORTH OF LIVINGSTON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  GAINESVILLE...
  BOLIGEE...
  ALLISON...
  WALDEN QUARTERS...
  FIVE POINTS INTERSECTION...

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3295 8798 3277 8786 3276 8787 3276 8785
      3275 8785 3266 8818 3276 8825
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 231DEG 31KT 3275 8813

56

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
403 PM CST SUN JAN 13 2013

ALZ011-013>015-022-023-132300-
FAYETTE AL-MARION AL-PICKENS AL-TUSCALOOSA AL-WALKER AL-WINSTON AL-
403 PM CST SUN JAN 13 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN WINSTON...WALKER...
NORTHWESTERN TUSCALOOSA...NORTHEASTERN PICKENS...SOUTHEASTERN MARION
AND FAYETTE COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CST...

AT 403 PM CST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF
FAYETTE TO 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ASHCRAFT CORNER...AND MOVING EAST AT
45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  CARBON HILL...
  LYNN...
  JASPER...
  CORDOVA...
  BANKSTON...

&&

LAT...LON 3407 8766 3401 8710 3399 8710 3399 8711
      3399 8713 3397 8713 3396 8710 3394 8710
      3359 8724 3339 8801
TIME...MOT...LOC 2203Z 250DEG 40KT 3377 8772 3347 8790

75

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