Red Flag Warning 4, NWS Birmingham, AL

Autauga County, AL, Barbour County, AL, Bibb County, AL, Blount County, AL, Bullock County, AL, Calhoun County, AL, Chambers County, AL, Cherokee County, AL, Chilton County, AL, Clay County, AL, Cleburne County, AL, Coosa County, AL, Dallas County, AL, Elmore County, AL, Etowah County, AL, Greene County, AL, Hale County, AL, Jefferson County, AL, Lee County, AL, Lowndes County, AL, Macon County, AL, Marengo County, AL, Montgomery County, AL, Perry County, AL, Pickens County, AL, Pike County, AL, Randolph County, AL, Russell County, AL, Shelby County, AL, St. Clair County, AL, Sumter County, AL, Talladega County, AL, Tallapoosa County, AL, Tuscaloosa County, AL

899 
WWUS84 KBMX 082302
RFWBMX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
502 PM CST FRI MAR 8 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

ALZ017>050-090015-
/O.EXP.KBMX.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-130308T2300Z/
BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-
JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-
HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-
AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-
BARBOUR-
502 PM CST FRI MAR 8 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE ABOVE 25
PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO OVERNIGHT.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
554 AM CST FRI MAR 8 2013

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

EXCELLENT WEATHER WILL BE THE STORY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THE
LARGE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES SHIFTING EASTWARD. CURRENTLY...THE RIDGE
AXIS RESIDES ACROSS THE HEART OF TEXAS NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS STATES LOOKING AT 300MB 00Z RAOBS. THAT RIDGE AXIS WILL BE
CENTERED OVER US BY SATURDAY. FOR TODAY...MILD TEMPERATURES AND LOTS
OF SUNSHINE WILL BE THE RULE. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES LOOK TO SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AREAWIDE. HOWEVER...WITH THE DRY AIRMASS
THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AND MIXING DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID AND UPPER
20S I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE LOW DEWPOINTS WILL
CREATE THE POSSIBILITY OF REACHING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA
THIS AFTERNOON...SO CHECK OUT THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
MORE INFO.

THE WARM UP CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND...AND FOLKS SHOULD DEFINITELY BE
ABLE TO ENJOY ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THAT ARE PLANNED. INCREASING
THICKNESS VALUES AND 500MB HEIGHTS OF OVER 575 DKM WILL EASILY
SUPPORT 70S IN THE WEST BY SATURDAY AND AREAWIDE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL ALSO SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE ADVERTISED SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA ON MONDAY. THE HIGH CLOUDS COULD PREVENT THE
MAXIMUM AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING...BUT THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE SHOULD
PRODUCE MORE THAN ENOUGH INSOLATION TO OFFSET THE CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PREVIOUS THINKING ON MONDAY'S SYSTEM STILL HASN'T CHANGED TOO MUCH
BASED ON THE LATEST SUITE OF GUIDANCE. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE
PLACED NEAR MEMPHIS STRETCHING SOUTHWESTWARD TO SHREVEPORT BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS TEXAS DOESN'T
APPEAR QUITE AS POTENT ON THE 12Z RUNS THIS MORNING AS THEY WERE
YESTERDAY. THEREFORE...THE SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS IS
NOT NEAR AS STRONG. THE ECMWF AND CMC ARE NOW PRESENTING THE WEAK
SECONDARY LOW FORMING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WE WOULD
HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING ANY GOOD INSTABILITIES WORKING NORTHWARD
WITH THE LOW TRACKING THAT FAR TO OUR SOUTH. NOT TO SAY WE MIGHT
HAVE TO WATCH FOR A BRIEF SURGE OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS
OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED SEVERE
CONVECTION ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE LOW SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES APPEAR EVEN LOWER WITH THIS RUN OF THE MODELS. THE
GFS...WHICH STILL DEPICTED A STRONGER LOW TRACKING TO OUR NORTH ON
THE 00Z RUN HAS JOINED THE ECMWF AND CMC WITH THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH
ON THE 06Z RUN THAT HAS JUST COME IN. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE
THE TREND OF NO HAZARDS IN THE HWO.

ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES STILL LOOK LOW...WE WILL STILL
SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER GENERATING SOME
STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS UTILIZING A BLEND OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND
WPC GUIDANCE...WE WILL LIKELY SEE ANYWHERE BETWEEN 1 TO 1.75 INCHES
OF RAIN FOR THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. SINCE WE HAVE HAD A
CHANCE TO DRY OUT SINCE THE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT WE OBSERVED IN LATE
FEBRUARY...WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FLOOD PROBLEMS AT THIS TIME
AS THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE A GOOD EASTWARD COMPONENT AND MOVE OUT BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY...BUT ONLY
JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE UPPER 50S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS BEING ADVERTISED TO
RETURN THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY REACHING 70 ONCE AGAIN BY LATE NEXT
WEEK.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH ONLY HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA AND LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL BELOW 25 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT LOCATIONS NORTH AND
WEST OF INTERSTATE 85. MOST LOCATIONS CURRENTLY REACH 3 OR 4 HOURS
AT THE MINIMUM RH CRITERIA...SO HAVE OPTED FOR A WATCH. WILL NEED
TO WATCH DEWPOINT TRENDS THIS MORNING...AND LIKELY UPGRADE AT LEAST
A PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA TO A WARNING.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     64  37  68  43  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    65  39  68  45  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  62  42  69  48  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  65  43  71  51  73 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      63  43  68  48  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      62  41  65  45  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  65  43  69  48  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        66  39  69  46  72 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

56/14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
512 AM CST FRI MAR 8 2013

ALZ011>015-017>050-091230-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
512 AM CST FRI MAR 8 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 25 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. OUTDOOR
BURNING IS DISCOURAGED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.