Flash Flood Warning 46, NWS Birmingham, AL

469 
WGUS74 KBMX 151120
FFSBMX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
620 AM CDT THU AUG 15 2013

ALC081-151200-
/O.CON.KBMX.FF.W.0046.000000T0000Z-130815T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LEE AL-
620 AM CDT THU AUG 15 2013

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM CDT FOR
CENTRAL LEE COUNTY...

AT 615 AM CDT...A PERSISTENT AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS 
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WARNED AREA.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BEANS MILL...
AUBURN UNIVERSITY...OPELIKA AND AUBURN. FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED 
ON COUNTY ROAD 146 NEAR BEAUREGARD. ALSO...A STORM SPOTTER NEAR 
OPELIKA HAS MEASURED OVER 5 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE THE ONSET OF STORMS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 3260 8521 3251 8534 3249 8543 3250 8544
      3249 8549 3255 8559 3272 8540 3273 8520

$$

08

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1209 AM CDT THU AUG 15 2013

.UPDATE...
FOR AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THINK I SAID THIS LAST NIGHT...WHERE IS THE FRONT...AND WHAT DOES
THAT SPELL OUT FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. LETS LOOK AT ALL OUR
OPTIONS. FIRST LOOKING AT THE WINDS ALL SITES IN CENTRAL ALABAMA
HAVE A NORTHERLY COMPONENT...WITH MOST SITES SEEING AN NORTH-
NORTHEAST WIND...SO THAT WOULD PUT THE FRONT SOUTH OF OUR CWA.
CHECK-MARK NUMBER ONE. SECONDLY LOOKING AT THE PRESSURE
FIELDS...THEY INCREASE AS WE TRAVEL NORTHWARD ALONG I-65...WITH
THE LOWEST PRESSURE FIELDS SOUTH OF THE AREA. SO CHECK-MARK NUMBER
TWO. AS FOR RADAR TRENDS...MOST OF THE RAIN HAS EXITED STAGE RIGHT
AND THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS HAVE EXITED AS WELL. CHECK-MARK NUMBER
THREE. FINAL QUESTION DEALS WITH DEWPOINTS. THIS IS WHERE IT IS A
LITTLE TRICKIER. DEWPOINT AT HALEYVILLE IS 59...SO YES THE FRONT
IS THROUGH HERE. BIRMINGHAM IS AT 64...BUT WE ARE SITTING AT 70
HERE AT THE OFFICE AT THE SHELBY COUNTY AIRPORT. IN FACT IT HAS
GONE UP OVER THE PAST HOUR. MONTGOMERY IS SITTING AT 71 AND
EUFAULA IS AT 72. SO THE COLD FRONT MAY HAVE GONE THROUGH...BUT
THE EFFECTIVE DRYING HAS YET TO PASS THROUGH. THIS IS MORE THAN
LIKELY DUE TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS DEVELOPED IN
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. PRECIPITATION TRENDS
CONFIRM THE OVERALL SPIN AROUND THE LOW AND WE SHOULD SEE
PRECIPITATION MOVE BACK IN FROM THE EAST OVERNIGHT. SHOULD NOT SEE
ANY MORE FLOODING RAINS LIKE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORE RAIN NONE
THE LESS. BEST FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-59
TONIGHT WHERE THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS RESIDE...PLUS THE NORTHWEST
ACTUALLY HAD TIME TO DRY OUT SOME THIS AFTERNOON AS A STRANGE
ORANGE OBJECT WAS VISIBLE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MINOR TWEAKS TO EARLIER THINKING BASED ON LATEST TRENDS/GUIDANCE.
QUITE A BIT OF DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED IN FROM THE NORTH AND IS
IMPINGING UPON NORTHERN TAF SITES. MODELS DEPICTING BEST SHALLOW
MOISTURE NOW WILL BE SUPPRESSED A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH...WHICH
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN LATEST TRENDS. BASED ON THAT...WILL BACK
OFF A BIT ON CIGS ACROSS THE NORTH AND KEEP THINGS AT IFR...WHICH
MAY WIND UP BEING PESSIMISTIC. BACKED OFF OF CIGS COMPLETELY AT
TCL...WITH BR AND A FEW SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED.

AT MGM AND TOI...WILL KEEP WITH THE LIFR FORECAST AS MENTIONED
EARLIER. JUST WEAK SHRA NEAR TOI...AND WILL NOT BE SURPRISED FOR
THAT TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO DEGRADE
THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO IMPROVE TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING
AT ALL LOCATION. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL ONCE
AGAIN CROP IN THE PICTURE LATE TOMORROW MORNING...AND WILL
INTRODUCE AT LEAST VCSH ON THE LAST LINE OF THE TAF INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

02

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
745 PM CDT WED AUG 14 2013

ALZ011>015-017>050-160045-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
745 PM CDT WED AUG 14 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS.
THEREFORE...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR...GENERALLY ALONG
AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 65.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE NEEDED
THROUGH FRIDAY.