Flash Flood Warning 43, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1217 PM CDT WED AUG 14 2013

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA. NUMEROUS SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THIS FRONT WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT ONGOING ACTIVITY. ADDITIONALLY...DECREASED
POPS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT SAGS FURTHER TO
THE SOUTH. THE LATEST HRRR HAS A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION WITH LITTLE TO NO REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER SOUTH...HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. FURTHER UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED
DURING THE DAY AS THE SITUATION EVOLVES. TEMPERATURES ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AREAWIDE.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS AT THIS HOUR. THE
RAINFALL IS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BETWEEN THE I-20 AND I-85 CORRIDORS
AT THIS HOUR AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE
FRONT. REMOVED MENTION OF PRECIPITATION AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
AFTER 21Z WITH LITTLE TO NO REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FOR
NOW...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED MVFR CONDITIONS BUT VISIBILITIES COULD GO
DOWN TO IFR DURING A HEAVIER DOWNPOUR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BECOME MORE SCATTERED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH IFR
CEILINGS RETURNING.

05/MA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 525 AM CDT WED AUG 14 2013/

SURFACE FRONT THIS AM JUST SOUTH OF A HAMILTON TO GADSDEN
LINE...WITH DRIER AIR NOT MAKING MUCH PROGRESS TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA. EXPECTING A LITTLE PROGRESS WITH THE
FRONT SOUTHWARD TODAY AND SOME LOWER DEW POINTS TO SNEAK INTO THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA FOR A BRIEF APPEARANCE. ON THURSDAY
THOUGH...A CLOSED SURFACE LOW BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE STATE ALTHOUGH THERE IS A BIT OF DISCREPANCY WHETHER IT IS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST OR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. BUT IT WILL BRING MOISTURE
STREAMING BACK INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA AROUND IT AND SCOOT THE LOWER
DEW POINTS BACK TO THE NORTH AND KEEP ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK.

NOW HERE WE GO...AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND OUR MODEL GUIDANCE
ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP A GULF LOW. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE DELAYS OR
SLOWLY NUDGES THE SYSTEM WESTWARD. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND SOME
CLIMATOLOGICAL MODELS TAKE THE LOW TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.
AS THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER...WANT TO WAIT AND SEE. HOWEVER...THE
REST OF THE GUIDANCE DOES NOT INDICATE A DRIER SCENARIO. INSTEAD
THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENS WITH STRAIGHT SOUTHEAST ONSHORE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FLOW. THAT ALONG WITH AN UPPER LOW/LONG WAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL KEEP US IN A VERY WET PATTERN
NO MATTER WHICH MODEL VERIFIES. SO...WHAT DOES THIS MEAN? HIGHER
POPS THROUGH AT THE VERY LEAST SUNDAY...TAPERING OFF FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND THE TROUGH PULL OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THAT IS THE ONLY GOOD
THING IS THAT DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE LOWER THAN NORMAL WITH MUCH
MORE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN IN THE WORKS. GFS MOS IS WAY TO WARM.

AS FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL. THIS MAY BE MORE OF AN EXTENDED
PROLONGED SOAKING THAN THAT OF FLASH FLOODING. ALTHOUGH...LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS WOULD NOT RULE OUT FLASH FLOODING IN ISOLATED
LOCALES. SO LEAVING IN LOW NUMBERS FOR FLASH FLOODING IN HWO...BUT
FORGOING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

08/MK

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
635 AM CDT WED AUG 14 2013

ALZ011>015-017>050-151200-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
635 AM CDT WED AUG 14 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE PRESENT AT TIMES TODAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
FRONT. AS A RESULT...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING...GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS.
THEREFORE...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR...GENERALLY ALONG
AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 65.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE NEEDED
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

08/MK