Wind Chill Advisory 16, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
307 PM CST MON DEC 9 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST MON DEC 9 2013

BLIZZARD WARNING SOUTHWEST BEGINS AT 3 PM CST. NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A GOOD AREA OF SUPER SATURATION W/R TO ICE FROM
NEAR THE SURFACE TO 700 MB ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ND. ALREADY SEEING
1/4 MILE IN HEAVY SNOW WITHOUT TOO MUCH WIND WIND AT BAKER
MONTANA WITH 1/2 MILE IN SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL LAY DOWN AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN RATHER
EFFICIENT SNOW PRODUCING CONDITIONS. THEN EXPECT 35 TO 45 MPH WINDS
TO PUNCH THROUGH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE BETWEEN 4 AND 6
PM CST. EXPECT 3 TO 5 HOURS OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. LESSER SNOW RATES AND WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTH. SO KEPT THE ADVISORY THERE. FINALLY...ITS STILL LOOKS LIKE
SOME WIND CHILLS WILL BE PROBLEMATIC BETWEEN -25 AND 30 FROM THE
NORTH CENTRAL TO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ADDED ANOTHER
WIND CHILL ADVISORY BEGINNING AT 9 PM CST THROUGH NOON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST MON DEC 9 2013

A PROGRESSIVE BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
A MEANDERING BAROCLINIC ZONE/ALTERNATING WARM AIR AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES INTERACTING WITH THIS BOUNDARY
WILL CREATE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED...THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL HAVE SOURED OUT THE COLD AIR WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. UNTIL THEN...EXPECTING SOME MENTION
OF LIGHT SNOW JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES TO 35 BELOW.  AFTER WEDNESDAY...NOT
EXPECTING ANY FURTHER WIND CHILL CRITERIA BEING MET.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...DRY AND VERY COLD TUESDAY NIGHT AS
A 1039MB SURFACE HIGH SLIDES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...WIND CHILL HEADLINES WILL BE THE MAIN THEME DURING
THIS TIME. AN AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SLIDE
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. HAVE A CHC OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE NORTH AND
EAST CENTRAL DURING THIS TIME. AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH AROUND
A HALF INCH IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. THE LIGHT SNOW CHANCES EXIT
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 06Z THURSDAY.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THIS TIME PERIOD WILL FEATURE PERIODS
OF LIGHT SNOW AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TIGHTENS UP SEVERAL TIMES. NEW
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM
1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE POSITIVE
NEWS IS THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION EVENTUALLY SCOURS OUT THE COLD AIR
BY MONDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING BETWEEN 25 AND 35 ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST MON DEC 9 2013

MAIN HAZARD TO AVIATION WILL BE STRONG WINDS...AND BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL...IMPACTING
PRIMARILY KDIK...BUT KISN-KBIS WILL BE IN THE PERIPHERY. MAIN
TIMING WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY AND MIDNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF
THIS AREA...MVFR TO OCNLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND IN AREAS
OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
NDZ001>004-009>012-019>022-034-035-046.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR
NDZ017-018-031>033-040>045.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST TUESDAY
FOR NDZ005-013-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.

&&

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...WAA

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