Wind Advisory 10, NWS Bismarck, ND

864 
WWUS73 KBIS 241537
NPWBIS

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1037 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

...WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...

.SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY ARE...GARRISON...
MCCLUSKY...HAZEN...WASHBURN...MANDAN AND BISMARCK...STEELE...
ELGIN...FORT YATES...LINTON...NAPOLEON...AND ASHLEY.

.GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS...UP TO 40 MPH...WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON...WHEN THEY WILL BEGIN DECREASING. THOSE DOING WORK
OUTSIDE...ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED STRUCTURES...AND DRIVERS...WILL
NEED TO BE EXTRA CAREFUL.

NDZ019>022-034>036-042-045>047-050-242345-
/O.CON.KBIS.WI.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-130525T0000Z/
MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-GRANT-SIOUX-
EMMONS-LOGAN-MCINTOSH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BEULAH...HAZEN...CENTER...GARRISON...
MCCLUSKY...MANDAN...BISMARCK...STEELE...ELGIN...FORT YATES...
LINTON...NAPOLEON...ASHLEY
1037 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013 /937 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS
EVENING...

* TIMING...UNTIL 7 PM CDT.

* WINDS...GUSTY UP TO 40 MPH.

* IMPACTS...LOOSE LIGHTWEIGHT OBJECTS WILL BLOW AROUND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THOSE DOING WORK OUTSIDE...ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED STRUCTURES...
AND DRIVERS...WILL NEED TO BE EXTRA CAREFUL.

&&

$$
TWH

471 
WWUS73 KBIS 242041
NPWBIS

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
341 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

...WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...

.SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY ARE...GARRISON...
MCCLUSKY...HAZEN...WASHBURN...MANDAN AND BISMARCK...STEELE...
ELGIN...FORT YATES...LINTON...NAPOLEON...AND ASHLEY.

.GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS...UP TO 40 MPH...WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON...WHEN THEY WILL BEGIN DECREASING. THOSE DOING WORK
OUTSIDE...ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED STRUCTURES...AND DRIVERS...WILL
NEED TO BE EXTRA CAREFUL.

NDZ019>022-034>036-042-045>047-050-250000-
/O.CON.KBIS.WI.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-130525T0000Z/
MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-GRANT-SIOUX-
EMMONS-LOGAN-MCINTOSH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BEULAH...HAZEN...CENTER...GARRISON...
MCCLUSKY...MANDAN...BISMARCK...STEELE...ELGIN...FORT YATES...
LINTON...NAPOLEON...ASHLEY
341 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013 /241 PM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS
EVENING...

* TIMING...UNTIL 7 PM CDT.

* WINDS...GUSTY UP TO 40 MPH.

* IMPACTS...LOOSE LIGHTWEIGHT OBJECTS WILL BLOW AROUND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THOSE DOING WORK OUTSIDE...ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED STRUCTURES...
AND DRIVERS...WILL NEED TO BE EXTRA CAREFUL.

&&

$$
TWH

703 
WWUS73 KBIS 250009
NPWBIS

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
709 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

.THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS FRIDAY EVENING AND THE WIND
ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

NDZ019>022-034>036-042-045>047-050-250115-
/O.EXP.KBIS.WI.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-130525T0000Z/
MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-GRANT-SIOUX-
EMMONS-LOGAN-MCINTOSH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BEULAH...HAZEN...CENTER...GARRISON...
MCCLUSKY...MANDAN...BISMARCK...STEELE...ELGIN...FORT YATES...
LINTON...NAPOLEON...ASHLEY
709 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013 /609 PM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013/

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

THE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AND THE WIND ADVISORY
HAS EXPIRED FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. 

$$
WAA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED WORDING IN UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
127 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

HAVE ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS WINDS WERE DECREASING
WITH GUSTS NOW 35 MPH AND BELOW...AND THOSE HIGHER SPEEDS WERE
CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

CONVECTION IN MONTANA...FROM BILLINGS THROUGH THE GLASGOW AREA WAS
MOVING STRAIGHT NORTH WITH NO RETURNS NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE
BISMARCK FORECAST AREA.

NAM...AND HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH MODEL...SHOW NO
CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE AFTERNOON. NAM ALSO SHOWS
NO CAPE...AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE AREA UNTIL AFTERNOON.
HAVE OPTED TO DROP POPS FOR THE REST OF THIS FRIDAY MORNING.

CLOUDS WILL BE TRICKY TODAY AS GUIDANCE IS SHOWING INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. CLOUD FORECAST MAY BE TOO OPTIMISTIC...IT MAY BE
CLOUDIER THAN WE ARE FORECASTING. WILL REEVALUATE THAT FOR NEXT
FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 920 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING WILL BE THE WINDS AROUND AND IN THE
ADVISORY AREAS SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL. WITH THE PAST
HOUR...WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 48 MPH AT BAKER MONTANA...40 AT
BUFFALO SOUTH DAKOTA...AND 37 MPH AT DICKINSON. THESE ARE ALL IN
OR NEAR THE ADVISORY SO WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY...PROBABLY
THROUGH THE TERMINATION AT 06Z/1 AM CDT. OTHERWISE...TONIGHT CLOUDS
ARE INCREASING WEST..AND CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

STRONG WINDS CONTINUE SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS EVENING. CLOUDS ARE
INCREASING ACROSS THE WEST. WINDS STILL REMAIN ABOVE 25 MPH
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST SO WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. RAIN STILL EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY
MORNING. OTHER THAN THE CLOUDS...CURRENT FORECAST TRENDING WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM ARE STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE
EVENING SOUTHWEST AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.

DID EXTEND THE ONGOING WIND ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH 06 UTC TONIGHT. 12 UTC NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD AFTER 00 UTC. WHILE LAPSE RATES
DO DECREASE TO NEAR ISOTHERMAL FROM BELOW 900 MB...IT APPEARS
THAT MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR 35+ KT
GUSTS AFTER THE ORIGINAL 03 UTC EXPIRATION TIME.

FOR FRIDAY...A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE/MOISTURE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO ESTABLISH ITSELF BETWEEN THE HIGHWAY 85 AND 83
CORRIDORS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN
CAPPING IN A LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME...HOWEVER...IF
SURFACE HEATING CAN OVERCOME THE CAPE....ML CAPE VALUES OF
800-1000 J/KG WITH 40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE AVAILABLE WHICH
COULD SUPPORT A LOW END...ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT...AGAIN IF
CAPPING CAN BE OVERCOME. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED IN LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WEAK VERTICAL
INSTABILITY LIMITING THE THUNDER THREAT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD INCLUDE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND AMOUNTS AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

THE SUITE OF 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS RELATIVE GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS AND UNSETTLED
PATTERN...BUT DIVERGE/DISAGREE CONCERNING FORECAST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT. THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDING TAKING PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD LOW OVER THE WESTERN US. BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO OUR EAST ALLOWING FOR
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN
US. THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE DURATION OF THE
PERIOD...AS MULTIPLE IMPULSES RIDE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. HAVE OPTED TO USE A BLEND OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN 12Z MODELS FOR PRECIP CHANCES AND UTILIZED WPC
QPF FOR PRECIP AMOUNTS.

THE POTENTIAL AND CONFIDENCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD REMAINS LOW. THE ENTIRE CWA IS OUTLINED IN THE GENERAL RISK
FOR DAY 3 BY THE SPC FOR SATURDAY. MIXED LAYER CAPE FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 2000 TO 2400 J/KG...HOWEVER...THE
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT. THE LIMITING FACTORS THAT
WILL COME INTO PLAY WILL BE THE UNFAVORABLE DYNAMICS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD AND LIMITED MOISTURE (DEW POINTS IN THE
50S. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD...BUT ML CAPE WILL BE IN THE 1000 TO 1200 J/KG RANGE AND 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR WILL REMAIN LOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE OVER THE COMING DAYS. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION
OF SEVERE POTENTIAL FROM THE MID SHIFT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

MAIN HAZARD TO AVIATION THROUGH 12Z WILL BE THE SURFACE WINDS OF
15 TO 25 KNOTS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST PART OF NORTH DAKOTA...AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT KDIK AND KISN AS A
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET RUNS THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...UP TO
50 KNOTS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON FRIDAY WILL CAUSE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH MOST PLACES REMAINING VFR. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

THE MAIN HYDROLOGY CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD
FOR NEXT WEEK ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FOLLOWING THE
RECENT HEAVY RAIN EVENT. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AND HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS...HOWEVER...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JPM
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...LTH
AVIATION...JPM
HYDROLOGY...AYD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1257 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

NDZ004-011-012-250600-
BOTTINEAU-WARD-MCHENRY-
1257 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGHOUT THE SOURIS BASIN
ACROSS WARD...BOTTINEAU AND MCHENRY COUNTIES. FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION...VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BISMARCK. FOR INFORMATION ON
RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS CLICK ON THE RIVERS AND LAKES TAB NEAR
THE TOP OF THE MAIN PAGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

CALL WEATHER REPORTS IN TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT
701-223-4582.

NDZ001>003-005-009-010-013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-
250600-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-
DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-
BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-
GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
1257 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013 /1157 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

CALL WEATHER REPORTS IN TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT
701-223-4582.

JP MARTIN