Severe Thunderstorm Warning 90, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
720 PM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 720 PM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 393 CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL 9 PM CDT.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS JUST NOW BEGINNING TO FIRE ALONG A
SURFACE TROUGH/WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY JUST EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 AS ITS
PARENT SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO
SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA. THE SHORTWAVE IS ALSO GENERATING A DRY SLOT
AND DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS
OF 00Z. AS A RESULT...THINK THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS
MINIMAL FOR AREAS WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...AFTER COORDINATING WITH SPC...WILL DEFER TO SPC AND TO
MAINTAIN THE WATCH FOR OLIVER...MORTON...GRANT...SIOUX COUNTIES
THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR EVENING CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013

THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS IS THE SHORT TERM SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 9
PM CDT THIS EVENING. SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WESTWARD EXTENT OF
SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH RECENT TRENDS INDICATING CELLS TRYING TO
DEVELOP NEAR AND NORTH OF THE BISMARCK/MANDAN AREA. THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THE STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED DOWNBURST WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE OVER BY MID EVENING.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. THE SOUTHWEST IS IN SLIGHT
RISK...COINCIDENT WITH THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013

ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
THE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A VERY ACTIVE
DAY...WITH SLIGHT RISK OUTLOOKED ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.
STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY...AHEAD OF AN UPPER RIDGE THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 720 PM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND
ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS COULD IMPACT KJMS BETWEEN 00Z-02Z
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE...WILL KEEP VCTS
IN THE KJMS TAF THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT KDIK SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THIS SCENARIO SO ONLY INDICATED VCTS
IN THE KDIK TAF AFTER 18Z SUNDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...TM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
258 PM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013

NDZ005-013-020-022-023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051-070700-
ROLETTE-PIERCE-OLIVER-SHERIDAN-WELLS-FOSTER-MORTON-BURLEIGH-
KIDDER-STUTSMAN-GRANT-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
258 PM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013 /158 PM MDT SAT JUL 6 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING...SOME
POSSIBLY SEVERE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE ISOLATED HAIL AROUND
GOLFBALL SIZE AND A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EVERY DAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AND AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY...MAINLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

NDZ004-012-070700-
BOTTINEAU-MCHENRY-
258 PM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BUT
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EVERY DAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AND AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

NDZ001>003-009>011-017>019-021-031>033-040-041-043-044-070700-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-MCKENZIE-DUNN-
MERCER-MCLEAN-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-SLOPE-HETTINGER-BOWMAN-
ADAMS-
258 PM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013 /158 PM MDT SAT JUL 6 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BUT
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EVERY DAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AND AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...AND AGAIN MONDAY...MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

RP KINNEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
652 PM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013

NDZ004-070015-
BOTTINEAU-
652 PM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN CENTRAL BOTTINEAU COUNTY...

AT 647 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM SOUTH OF SOURIS...AND WEST OF
BOTTINEAU...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 30 MPH...VERY HEAVY RAIN...WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  BOTTINEAU...
  ROTH...
  SOURIS...
  CARBURY...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN QUICKLY LEAD TO FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

JONES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
740 PM CDT SAT JUL 06 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     HAIL             DENHOFF                 47.48N 100.26W
07/06/2013  E1.75 INCH       SHERIDAN           ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            40 TO 60 MPH WINDS ALSO REPORTED WITH STORM.

&&

AYD

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