Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2013
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 6, NWS Bismarck, ND
NWS Bismarck, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 18, 2013, 5:15 PM MDT for Grant County, North Dakota. It was in force for 60 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- May 18, 2013, 5:15 PM MDT (23:15 UTC)
- Expired
- May 18, 2013, 6:15 PM MDT
- In force
- 60 min
- Issued by
- NWS Bismarck, ND
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Hail
- 1.25 in
- Wind
- 50.0 mph
County Grant County, ND
The radar
The Bismarck radar (KBIS), 81 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watch it was issued in
The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.
| Issued | Product | Office | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 18, 4:46 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | 7 hr |
The nearest sounding before it
Rapid City, SD (KUNR), launched 12:00Z, 11.3 hours before the alert went out and 272 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 277 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -205 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 922 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 41 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 75 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -2 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- -1.3
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 18, 4:54 PM MDT, 21 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, May 18, 4:54 PM MDT, 21 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND 554 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 554 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013 A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. MONITORING RADAR AND THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS THROUGH THE EVENING. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013 THE MAIN FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE STRETCHING FROM DICKINSON TO THE BLACK HILLS HAS PROVEN TO BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK THE CAP THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATES SOME AGITATED CUMULUS THERE...AND AT LEAST ONE THUNDERSTORM HAS BEEN WARNED THERE. BASED ON ANVIL BLOW OFF...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE ONLY LIMITED SURFACE HEATING INTO NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...SO IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WILL HOLD OFF AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS UNTIL MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS ATOP BETTER INSTABILITY AND MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR THAN THAT CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE SHOWER THAT FORMED AROUND 19 UTC AND FAILED TO GAIN STEAM NEAR HETTINGER. USING VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR...IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR CONVECTION TO SLOWLY SPREAD INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA OVER THE NEXT 5 HOURS...THEN MOVE EASTWARD. THESE STORMS SHOULD THEN PROPAGATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER BEING ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94. THEREAFTER...LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS CUT OFF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013 THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND AMOUNTS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS REGARDING THE PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THE H500 CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE 12Z GFS KEEPS THE H500 LOW A BIT FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GEFS/ECWMF/GEM MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHICH INTRODUCES SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA EARLY IN THE EXTENDED. AS A CONSEQUENCE HAVE KEPT CHANCE/LIKELY POPS THROUGH MID TUESDAY BEFORE BRINGING DOWN POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE H500 LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST AND AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR QPF...HAVE USED A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE WPC GUIDANCE FOR AMOUNTS...WHICH HAS AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF STATE HIGHWAY 2. TO THE NORTH (INCLUDING THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN)...UP TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. AS SAID WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST ISSUANCES...SIGNIFICANT RESPONSES ARE NOT EXPECTED ON AREA RIVERS...BUT WILL BE WATCHING SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS...AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN FLOODING. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...THE ECWMF AND GFS SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH THE PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THE NEXT WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...HOWEVER...THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL US AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW DEPARTS EAST. A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THIS COMING WEEK AND CLEARING SKIES THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 554 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FOCUS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO 12Z SUNDAY WILL BE OVER KBIS/KJMS. AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE AND AFFECT ALL AERODROMES. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && UPDATE...KS SHORT TERM...JWS LONG TERM...LTH AVIATION...KS
Hazardous weather outlook, May 18, 2:04 PM MDT, 3 hours 11 minutes before
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</html>In the hours before
Special weather statement, May 18, 4:17 PM MDT, 58 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND 417 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013 NDZ041-042-044-045-182300- ADAMS-GRANT-HETTINGER-SIOUX- 417 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013 ...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT... AT 409 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 17 MILES EAST HETTINGER IN EAST CENTRAL ADAMS COUNTY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. *RESIDENTS IN EAST ADAMS...SOUTHEAST HETTINGER...AND SOUTHWEST GRANT COUNTIES SHOULD REMAIN ON ALERT FOR THIS THUNDERSTORM. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED. TARDIF-HUBER
Special weather statement, May 18, 4:57 PM MDT, 18 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND 457 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013 NDZ042-045-182330- GRANT-SIOUX- 457 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013 ...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT... AT 454 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER 22 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LEITH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. RESIDENTS IN SOUTHERN GRANT COUNTY SHOULD REMAIN ON ALERT FOR THIS THUNDERSTORM. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED. TARDIF-HUBER
The office that day
Everything else NWS Bismarck, ND issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 6:39 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BIS | Adams, Bowman | 36 min |
| May 17, 8:07 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BIS | Adams, Hettinger | 38 min |
| May 17, 8:37 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BIS | Adams, Grant, Hettinger, Sioux | 53 min |
| May 17, 9:19 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BIS | Grant, Morton | 41 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2013Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2013
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.