Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
401 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND RENEWED FLOODING ISSUES. FOR DETAILS OF
OVERLAND AND RIVER FLOODING ISSUES...SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.
REGARDING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGH TUESDAY...RATHER LIMITED
INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE. THE SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK BRINGS
THE 5 PERCENT AREA INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SURFACE LOW...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013

THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WRAP AROUND RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO DECREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PROPAGATES INTO
MINNESOTA. DID MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA GIVEN THE
COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY DRY WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEFORE A RETURN TO ACTIVE WEATHER AGAIN WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE BEST AND MOST
WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY SEVERE...LOOKS TO BE
ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND STRONG
UPPER LEVEL. STILL SOME TIME DIFFERENCES...HOWEVER...OVERALL A
BLEND OF THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE WAS USED GIVEN FAIR TO GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT AND LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013

EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE.
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THUNDER TIMING AT MOST TAF SITES...SO MAINTAINED
PREVAILING SHOWERS AND VICINITY THUNDER. THE EXCEPTION WAS
KDIK...WITH THUNDERSTORMS IMMINENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR CIGS
ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT KMOT/KJMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013

ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH TODAY THROUGH 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY...FOR AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF STATE HIGHWAY 200. NEW 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
GENERALLY TRENDED WETTER AND A BIT FARTHER NORTH WITH THE HIGHEST
QPF. 2 TO 3 INCHES RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER A RELATIVELY LARGE AREA
ACROSS THE NORTH ARE NOW COMMON. FOR THE WATCH AREA...FAVORED
AREAS WITH LINGERING HIGH WATER ISSUES FROM THE RECENT ROUND OF
HEAVY RAIN...CO-LOCATED WITH THE HIGHER QPF. ADDITIONAL FLOODING
PROBLEMS...SUCH AS MORE WATER OVER TOPPING COUNTY AND TOWNSHIP
ROADS...AND FLOODING OF SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS...MAY OCCUR
AGAIN THIS WEEK...AS NUMEROUS LOCATIONS STILL HAVE LINGERING HIGH
WATER AND CLOSED ROADS FROM THE RECENT HEAVY RAIN. THERE MAY BE
ISOLATED STORMS THAT PRODUCE RAINFALL RATES SUFFICIENT FOR FLASH
FLOODING...BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE COMMON OR WIDESPREAD.

IN THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN...
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES AT WILLOW CITY ON WILLOW CREEK. THE CREEK
LEVEL REMAINS BELOW FLOOD STAGE...BUT MAY SLOWLY RISE TO FLOOD
STAGE NEXT WEEK.

CONTINUED SOURIS RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS FOR
FOXHOLM...LOGAN...VELVA...TOWNER...BANTRY...WESTHOPE. THE HEAVY
RAINS LAST WEEK THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE A DISCHARGE FROM LAKE DARLING DAM OF 950 CUBIC FEET PER
SECOND. THE SOURIS RIVER DOWNSTREAM OF THE DAM CONTINUES TO RISE
FROM LOCAL RUNOFF DUE TO SATURATED SOILS.

ELSEWHERE...THE MISSOURI RIVER AT WILLISTON IS NOW EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE...ALTHOUGH WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
IMPACT OF THE ADDITIONAL RAIN THIS WEEK.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-
017>023-025.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/HYDROLOGY...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...AYD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
350 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-042100-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-
350 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FLOOD WATCH FOR OVERLAND FLOODING IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF STATE HIGHWAY 200 THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. VARIOUS
RIVER FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE ALSO IN EFFECT ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. FOR DETAILS GO TO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BIS. CLICK ON THE RIVERS AND LAKES TAB NEAR THE
TOP OF THE MAIN PAGE.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT NO
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83...WITH A LOW THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

PLEASE REPORT HEAVY RAINFALL OR FLOODING OBSERVED TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

NDZ031>037-040>048-050-051-042100-
GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-STUTSMAN-
SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-LA MOURE-
MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
350 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013 /250 PM MDT MON JUN 3 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT NO
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH A LOW THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

AYD/RP KINNEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
433 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013

NDZ043-032200-
BOWMAN ND-
333 PM MDT MON JUN 3 2013

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR CENTRAL BOWMAN COUNTY UNTIL 400 PM
MDT...

AT 329 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BOWMAN...MOVING EAST AT 35
MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  BOWMAN...
  MUD BUTTES...
  BOWMAN HALEY DAM...
  BUFFALO SPRINGS...
  SCRANTON...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

AYD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
434 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013

NDZ040-032200-
SLOPE ND-
334 PM MDT MON JUN 3 2013

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR SOUTHWESTERN SLOPE COUNTY UNTIL 400
PM MDT...

AT 329 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 30 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF BOWMAN...MOVING EAST
AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  AMIDON...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

AYD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
448 PM CDT MON JUN 03 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     HAIL             2 SW MUD BUTTES         46.01N 103.80W
06/03/2013  E1.00 INCH       BOWMAN             ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MMATHEWS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
525 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013

NDZ043-032245-
BOWMAN-
425 PM MDT MON JUN 3 2013

...FUNNEL CLOUDS REPORTED 4 MILES WEST OF BOWMAN...

AT 416 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES WEST OF BOWMAN...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

FUNNEL CLOUDS...PEA SIZE HAIL...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  BOWMAN...             BUFFALO SPRINGS...    SCRANTON...

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

TM

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
609 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013

NDZ040-041-043-040000-
BOWMAN ND-HETTINGER ND-SLOPE ND-
509 PM MDT MON JUN 3 2013

...THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AT 505
PM MDT...

AT 505 PM MDT...THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM SCRANTON TO HETTINGER
AND WERE MOVING EAST AT AROUND 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORM AS THEY MOVE THROUGH REEDER...BUCYRUS...
HETTINGER AND HAYNES.

STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO IF A THUNDERSTORM MOVES INTO YOUR AREA
MOVE INSIDE.

JP MARTIN