Severe Thunderstorm Warning 211, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
707 PM CDT FRI AUG 30 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 707 PM CDT FRI AUG 30 2013

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY NICELY DEPICTS THE LOCATION OF A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH THAT IS SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR SEVERE CONVECTION.
THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...MORE STABLE AIR EXISTS OVER EXTREME WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. NOT EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 85 TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...CANCELLED THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 85. A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COULD IMPACT THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN PORTION
OF BOWMAN COUNTY BETWEEN 9 PM MDT AND 10 PM MDT. HOWEVER...NOT
REAL CONFIDENT THE STORM WILL HOLD TOGETHER FOR THAT LONG. STILL
CANCELLED THE WATCH FOR BOWMAN COUNTY...BUT MENTIONED THE THREAT
IN THE HWO. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 432 PM CDT FRI AUG 30 2013

UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 506.

CONVECTION IS ALREADY FIRING ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LAPS IS ANALYZING SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 2000-2500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE ATMOSPHERE
IS PRIMED FOR SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN AND PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT FRI AUG 30 2013

THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM IS SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.

REALLY NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THINKING IN REGARDS TO THE EVOLUTION AND
ASSOCIATED THREATS WITH THE ANTICIPATED CONVECTION. THE 18 UTC
HRRR/RAP CONTINUE THE TRENDS OF INITIATING CONVECTION ALONG A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM HETTINGER THROUGH SHERWOOD FROM BETWEEN
20-22 UTC. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE 12 UTC NAM/GFS/GEM/WRF AND THE
00 UTC WRF AND SPC SSEO. -10 TO -30 HAIL CAPE VALUES OF 700-900 J/KG
WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS SUGGESTS LARGE HAIL WILL BE A
PRIMARY THREAT...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS WITH DOWNDRAFT CAPE
VALUES AOA 1000 J/KG. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH
PWATS NEAR 1.50 INCHES. WHILE THE TORNADIC THREAT IS LOW...ANY
SUPERCELLS THAT CAN INTERACT WITH THE TROUGH MAY PRESENT A LOCALIZED
THREAT FOR TORNADOES. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 POST 00 UTC...SUSTAINED BY A 25 KT LOW LEVEL JET.

FOR SATURDAY...A COOLER AND NOTABLY DRIER DAY IS FORECAST ACROSS THE
AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL ENTER NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT AND CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY 18
UTC. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AND DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 40S WILL
LEAD TO HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...HOWEVER...CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT FRI AUG 30 2013

SURFACE COLD FRONT SWEEPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MOSTLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY BY 00Z SUNDAY/EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. THERE STILL MAY BE SOME
LINGERING CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
AROUND 00Z...SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS LAMOURE AND DICKEY COUNTIES IN THE EVENING...DRY ALL AREAS
AFTER 06Z.

DRY...SUNNY...AND MUCH COOLER (HIGHS 70-80) FOR SUNDAY AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

AFTER SUNDAY...WILL SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. HOT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK/EARLY NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE 12Z GFS/EC INDICATING ANYWHERE FROM
26-30C 850MB ISOTHERMS OVER THE DAKOTAS. EXPECT MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS OVER NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AFTERWARDS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE
EMBEDDED WAVES UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE...SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY
UNTIL THE END OF THE WORK WEEK/SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND WHEN MODELS
PROJECT A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 707 PM CDT FRI AUG 30 2013

VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
00 UTC TAFS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL SITES OF KMOT/KBIS BETWEEN 01-03 UTC...AND MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
652 PM CDT FRI AUG 30 2013

NDZ002>005-010>013-018>022-033>035-041-042-044-045-010000-
BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-MCHENRY-PIERCE-
DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-
HETTINGER-GRANT-ADAMS-SIOUX-
652 PM CDT FRI AUG 30 2013 /552 PM MDT FRI AUG 30 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM CDT/10 PM
MDT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN HIGHWAY 85 AND
HIGHWAY 83 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING.
SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL AND EAST SATURDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS HAVE BEEN ACTIVATED. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 1-800-247-0212 WITH SEVERE WEATHER
REPORTS.

NDZ023-025-036-037-046>048-050-051-010000-
WELLS-FOSTER-KIDDER-STUTSMAN-EMMONS-LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-
DICKEY-
652 PM CDT FRI AUG 30 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT THE REGION
AFTER SUNSET. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

NDZ043-010000-
BOWMAN-
552 PM MDT FRI AUG 30 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHING MILES CITY MAY GLANCE THE
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF BOWMAN COUNTY BETWEEN 9 PM MDT
AND 10 PM MDT. OTHERWISE...THE SEVERE THREAT FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT IS VERY LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

NDZ001-009-017-031-032-040-010000-
DIVIDE-WILLIAMS-MCKENZIE-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-SLOPE-
652 PM CDT FRI AUG 30 2013 /552 PM MDT FRI AUG 30 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

TM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
705 PM CDT FRI AUG 30 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     HAIL             3 ENE CARBURY           48.90N 100.48W
08/30/2013  E1.25 INCH       BOTTINEAU          ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL LASTED 20 MINUTES.

&&

NHEINERT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
709 PM CDT FRI AUG 30 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 ENE CARBURY           48.90N 100.48W
08/30/2013  E60 MPH          BOTTINEAU          ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

NHEINERT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
711 PM CDT FRI AUG 30 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     HAIL             3 N BOTTINEAU           48.87N 100.44W
08/30/2013  M1.00 INCH       BOTTINEAU          ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

0710 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 N BOTTINEAU           48.87N 100.44W
08/30/2013  E60 MPH          BOTTINEAU          ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LHUBER

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