Severe Thunderstorm Warning 196, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
100 AM CDT THU AUG 29 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT THU AUG 29 2013

UPDATE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL.
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE WEST PER LATEST TRENDS. SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM WEST INTO
CENTRAL COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND INCREASING LOW
LEVEL JET SHOULD SUSTAIN STORM INTENSITY. WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE HAIL THREAT...BUT DOWNBURST WINDS AND
ISOLATED WINDS WILL LIKELY BE PROBLEMATIC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT WED AUG 28 2013

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS PREVALENT ACROSS
WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRIMARY
DIFFERENCE FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON IS LACK OF AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER
AND THE WARMER TEMPS TODAY WILL JUICE UP THE LOWER LEVELS WEST AND
NORTH AS CAP IS REDUCED/ERODED BY THIS EVENING. NAM FORECAST K INDEX
VALUES BETWEEN 35 AND 40 FROM KISN-KMOT-KBIS-KJMS AND ASSOCIATED HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. CONCERN FOR
FLASH FLOODING IS MITIGATED A LITTLE BY DRY SOILS...BUT WILL MENTION
HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST HIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ONE TO TWO INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ISOLATED 3 INCH...WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM WEST
CENTRAL THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH SUNRISE THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL APPROACH THE 3/6 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE OVER
CENTRAL TO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN...THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS
MISCHA OF WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. CONVECTIVE MODELS...WHILE
NOT TOTALLY CONSISTENT IN TIMING AND AREA...STILL SUGGEST A LINEAR
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH BOWING LINE SEGMENTS...SO STRING WINDS AND
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ON THURSDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL BE LEAVING THE REGION. HIGHS AGAIN THURSDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. HEAT INDEXES APPROACH UPPER 90S
SOUTH CENTRAL. BELIEVE THIS WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT WED AUG 28 2013

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM ARE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THEN TEMPERATURE TRENDS WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

THE LATEST 12 UTC MODEL RUNS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PART OF NORTH DAKOTA LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. OVERALL PARAMETERS ARE
NOT ALL THAT IN FAVOR OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER WITH
AMPLE DAYTIME HEATING...DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THE FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED STRONG WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH THE
BEST CHANCE IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF NORTH DAKOTA. THAT BEING SAID
THE LATEST 12 UTC GFS HAS NO PRECIPITATION FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN
THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ON FRIDAY. IT IS
CERTAINLY AN OUTLIER AS NEARLY EVERY OTHER MODEL RUN HAS THE WEST
PEGGED DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING ON FRIDAY. THIS TIME FRAME WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE MODEL RUNS TO SEE WHETHER OR NOT THE GFS REMAINS AN
OUTLIER OR MOVES TOWARD OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS.

BY SATURDAY...THE LATEST 12 UTC MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER NORTH
DAKOTA...PROVIDING COOLER HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LATEST 12 UTC RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE CHANGED FROM
YESTERDAYS RUNS...KEEPING THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT INTO MID NEXT WEEK OVER NORTH DAKOTA...SUGGESTING HIGHS
IN THE 80S TO UPPER 70S WOULD STICK AROUND THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
WHEREAS YESTERDAYS 12 UTC RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAD THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE MONDAY...SUGGESTING
HIGHS COULD GET BACK IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90S BY MID NEXT WEEK IN
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT THU AUG 29 2013

ADDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSRA AT KISN/KMOT WHERE CONVECTION IS
ALREADY OCCURRING OR VERY LIKELY OVERNIGHT. IMPACTS ARE MORE
QUESTIONABLE AT KDIK/KBIS/KJMS...AND HAVE LIMITED MENTION TO VCTS GROUPS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...RK
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...RK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
124 AM CDT THU AUG 29 2013

NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>033-040-041-043-044-291100-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-MCKENZIE-DUNN-
MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-SLOPE-HETTINGER-
BOWMAN-ADAMS-
124 AM CDT THU AUG 29 2013 /1224 AM MDT THU AUG 29 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS WESTERN INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EARLY MORNING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND/OR HAIL
SIZES TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 1-800-247-0212.

NDZ004-005-012-013-022-023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051-291100-
BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-MCHENRY-PIERCE-SHERIDAN-WELLS-FOSTER-MORTON-
BURLEIGH-KIDDER-STUTSMAN-GRANT-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-LA MOURE-
MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
124 AM CDT THU AUG 29 2013 /1224 AM MDT THU AUG 29 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

RP KINNEY/TM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1115 PM CDT WED AUG 28 2013

NDZ031-290515-
GOLDEN VALLEY-
1015 PM MDT WED AUG 28 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS MOVING TOWARDS GOLDEN VALLEY COUNTY...

AT 1012 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES WEST OF CARLYLE...OR 53 MILES NORTHWEST
OF BOWMAN...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...VERY HEAVY RAIN...WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  GOLVA...
  SENTINEL BUTTE...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN QUICKLY LEAD TO FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

SIMOSKO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1152 PM CDT WED AUG 28 2013

NDZ017-031-032-290515-
BILLINGS ND-GOLDEN VALLEY ND-MCKENZIE ND-
1052 PM MDT WED AUG 28 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN MCKENZIE...NORTHERN
GOLDEN VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN BILLINGS COUNTIES...

AT 1047 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
CRANE TO 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TROTTERS...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  SATHER DAM...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING. THOSE WORKING OUTDOORS ON ELEVATED STRUCTURES
SHOULD SEEK SHELTER AS DANGEROUS FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING
WITH THESE STORMS.

AYD

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