Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
232 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. CURRENT CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN A GOOD SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT AND INCREASING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS CONVECTION
HAS BEEN STRONG TO AT TIMES MARGINALLY SEVERE THROUGH THE MORNING
AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE MAINLY
WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

NEXT AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE LIFTING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL ERODE CINH. THIS...COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE ENOUGH TO FIRE A FEW STORMS OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND A STEEP EML...SOME
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT.
ALTHOUGH WITH A GOOD SHEAR PROFILE AND LARGE CAPE VALUES...SOME OF
THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE TORNADOES. THINK THAT OVER TIME THIS
EVENING...CONVECTION WILL TRANSITION FROM DISCRETE CELLS TO A AN
MCS.

ON SUNDAY...NOT A LOT WILL CHANGE AS QUASI-STATIONARY LOW WILL
REMAIN OVER THE MONDAK REGION WITH A SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
WILL ADD A MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS TO THE WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL INITIALLY CONSIST OF A TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COAST AND RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
LEAVING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW. SPC CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR SOUTHWESTERN ND ON
MONDAY WITH THE GFS SHOWING 1000-2000 J/KG CAPE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN HALF OF ND WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW APPROACHING. BY
MIDWEEK GFS/ECMWF BRING THE TROUGH EASTWARD WHILE DEEPENING
IT...RESULTING IN A CONTINUED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS ND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE GONE WITH
VCTS AT ALL BUT THE JMS TERMINAL AND ALSO PUT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR ISN AND DIK...AS THE WESTERN PART OF NORTH DAKOTA
WILL SEE THE MAJORITY OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AFTER 00Z
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO CLOUD BACK UP AND CEILINGS WILL LOWER
OVER NIGHT AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AT THIS TIME EXPECTING ALL TAF SITES TO BE
EITHER MVFR OR IFR BY 05Z...AND FOR CONDITIONS TO WORSEN OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING TOMORROW. ALSO THE ASOS AT TERMINAL DIK IS DOWN AND
NOT REPORTING ANY WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JNS
AVIATION...MM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
344 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

NDZ031>034-040>045-262045-
GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-
ADAMS-SIOUX-
344 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013 /244 PM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MDT SATURDAY NIGHT.
PLEASE REFERENCE WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BIS FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS OR TORNADO WARNINGS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

CALL WEATHER REPORTS IN TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT
701-223-4582 OR USE THE TOLL FREE SPOTTER HOT LINE.

NDZ004-011-012-262045-
BOTTINEAU-WARD-MCHENRY-
344 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. FOG IS LIKELY TONIGHT.

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE SOURIS
BASIN IN WARD...BOTTINEAU AND MCHENRY COUNTIES. FOR DETAILS VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BIS. CLICK ON THE RIVERS AND LAKES TAB NEAR THE
TOP OF THE MAIN PAGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

CALL WEATHER REPORTS IN TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT
701-223-4582 OR USE THE TOLL FREE SPOTTER HOT LINE.

NDZ001>003-005-009-010-013-017>023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051-
262045-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-
DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-FOSTER-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-EMMONS-LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
344 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SOME STORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. FOG IS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

CALL WEATHER REPORTS IN TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT
701-223-4582 OR USE THE TOLL FREE SPOTTER HOT LINE.

JNS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
446 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     HAIL             HETTINGER               46.00N 102.64W
05/25/2013  E1.50 INCH       ADAMS              ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL SLIGHTLY SMALLER THAN GOLF BALL SIZE. LARGER HAIL
            BEGAN AT 435 PM CDT AND ONGOING AT TIME OF REPORT.

&&

RK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
447 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     HAIL             HETTINGER               46.00N 102.64W
05/25/2013  E1.00 INCH       ADAMS              ND   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTED BIGGER THAN QUARTER SIZE HAIL WITH WIND GUSTS
            TO 50 MPH AT 335 PM MDT.. ONGIONG AT THE TIME OF
            OBSERVATION

&&

KROLAK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
449 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     HAIL             HETTINGER               46.00N 102.64W
05/25/2013  M1.25 INCH       ADAMS              ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL BEGAN AT 335 PM MDT AND STILL ONGOING.

&&

KROLAK