Severe Thunderstorm Warning 180, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
225 PM CDT SAT AUG 10 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT SAT AUG 10 2013

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS CONVECTIVE
TRENDS AND MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST HI-
RES WRF/HRRR MODEL RUNS POINT TO POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS
CONTINUING TO SPREAD INTO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...SUPPORTED
BY A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN...AND ANOTHER IMPULSE IN CENTRAL MONTANA. MUCAPES AOA
1000 J/KG AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST AN ISOLATED STORM
OR TWO CAPABLE OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL. INVERTED V BUFR SOUNDINGS
ALSO INDICATE SOME GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL WITH STORM DOWNDRAFTS. STORMS
IN FAR NORTHEAST MONTANA HAVE ALREADY PRODUCED SOME HAIL UP TO
PENNY SIZE IN ROOSEVELT COUNTY. ALSO THINKING THE SHORTWAVE WILL
SUSTAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
AFTER DARK. LOOKING AHEAD...ISOLATED STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
ANOTHER PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT SAT AUG 10 2013

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE INTERMITTENT PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. GFS/ECMWF/GEM/ENSEMBLES ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL
CONSIST OF WESTERN N AMERICAN RIDGE IN PLACE WITH EASTERN N
AMERICAN TROUGH. THIS PLACES THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...SUPPORTING
INTERMITTENT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP
WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE STATE...CLOSER TO BEST
INSTABILITY. 00Z ECMWF SHOWS A BETTER DEFINED SHORTWAVE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SMALL
POCKET OF CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY...BUT OTHERWISE ANY PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURES...MAX TEMPS EARLY IN THE PERIOD SHOULD
START OUT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. NORMAL HIGH FOR BIS IS 85 FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS RIDGE AXIS OVER THE WEST NUDGES EASTWARD
SLIGHTLY...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS BACK TO THE LOW 80S BY MID WEEK.
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS BY NEXT SATURDAY BUT
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES SUPPORT RIDGE AXIS OVER OR JUST TO THE WEST OF
ND WHICH WOULD SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. 12Z MOS GUIDANCE GIVES
BIS A HIGH OF 92 NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SAT AUG 10 2013

18Z TAFS UPDATED TO REFLECT INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN CHANCES OF
TSRA AT KISN. ADDED TEMPO GROUP THERE FROM 20Z-22Z AND WILL REFINE
TIMING BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. ELSEWHERE...TIMING/COVERAGE OF
STORMS IS LESS CERTAIN SO MAINTAINED VCTS/VCSH GROUPS. CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME PERIODS OF LOW VFR CIGS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...JNS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
214 PM CDT SAT AUG 10 2013

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-111915-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
214 PM CDT SAT AUG 10 2013 /114 PM MDT SAT AUG 10 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST
STORMS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 22...COULD PRODUCE HAIL OF
PENNY UP TO QUARTER SIZE...AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN ANOTHER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ISOLATED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS
EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 22.

RP KINNEY/JNS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
456 PM CDT SAT AUG 10 2013

NDZ017-018-102300-
DUNN-MCKENZIE-
356 PM MDT SAT AUG 10 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO NORTHWEST DUNN COUNTY...

AT 354 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THEODORE ROOSEVELT NATIONAL
PARK NORTH...OR 47 MILES NORTH OF DICKINSON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...VERY HEAVY RAIN...WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  OAKDALE...
  KILLDEER...
  MANNING...
  DUNN CENTER...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN QUICKLY LEAD TO FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

KINNEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
554 PM CDT SAT AUG 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0539 PM     TSTM WND GST     KILLDEER                47.37N 102.75W
08/10/2013  E60 MPH          DUNN               ND   PUBLIC

&&

JNS

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