Severe Thunderstorm Warning 172, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
709 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPARENT IN WV IMAGERY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING. CONDITIONS ARE VERY MARGINAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...BUT A
FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME HAIL AROUND PENNY
SIZE AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH. STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BETWEEN 9 AND 10 PM CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

FORECAST CONCERN ONCE AGAIN TODAY IS THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. CONVECTION CURRENTLY FIRING BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THAT DROPPED SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA EARLIER. THIS IS IN A BAND OF
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SOME STRONGER
STORMS. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CWA THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW...AND BEFORE
THE COLDER AND MUCH DRIER ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. THIS BAND
EXTENDS BACK WEST THROUGH CENTRAL AND INTO WEST CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTHEAST FROM SASKATCHEWAN IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS EVENING. MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED HERE...BUT A FEW STORMS
WITH SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

THE CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST
SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH
INTO THE STATE.

WEDNESDAY WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT YET ANOTHER CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE WEST AS
ANOTHER IMPULSE ROTATES AROUND THE STRONG HUDSON BAY LOW TO OUR
NORTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

THE MAIN FEATURE OF THE LONG TERM IS RAIN CHANCES. THE MOSTLY LIKELY
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY...WITH MORE CHANCES
SUNDAY AND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN FOCUSED OVER NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN (TROUGH NORTH...RIDGE
SOUTH) REMAINS RATHER STAGNANT. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ALMOST EVERYDAY...AS A CONTINUOUS FLOW OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATE AROUND THE BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES. THESE SHORTWAVES...COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE JET
DYNAMICS (UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND ASCENT) AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST
AFTERNOONS DURING PEAK HEATING.

THE BEST CHANCE OF MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ARRIVE THURSDAY AS A POTENT COLD FRONT DIVES SOUTH OUT OF
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. THE 12Z UTC GFS/NAM/ECMWF/SREF ALL HAVE
THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE THE FRONT
OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA BY 18 UTC AND THE ECMWF AND SREF HAVE IT MOVING
OUT AROUND 00 UTC FRIDAY.

OTHER CHANCES REMAIN THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS NORTHWEST FLOW
BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AND SHIFTS TO ZONAL FLOW. A MORE PROLIFIC
WAVE IS FORECAST BY THE 12 UTC ECMWF AND GFS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

00Z TAF UPDATED TO REFLECT NEAR TERM THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KISN...AND
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STORMS INVOF KMOT THROUGH 02Z.
OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MAINLY AT KMOT/KDIK/KGIS OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...RK
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...RK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
653 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-071100-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
653 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013 /553 PM MDT TUE AUG 6 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING FROM NORTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL UP TO
PENNY SIZE AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED.

TWH/RP KINNEY

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