River Flood Warning 14, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
414 AM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS FIRE WEATHER. THE DECISION
TO UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS DISCUSSED IN THE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION BELOW.

OVERLAND AND RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES...AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE OUR AGGRESSIVE MELT. THIS IS DISCUSSED FURTHER IN THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

THE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY...WITH A BRIEF
WARMUP AGAIN MONDAY...THEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR AND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. HAVE CENTERED THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL COINCIDE
WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT SHOULD INITIATE SOME CONVECTION
ALONG THE FRONT AND SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AS WELL. THIS BRINGS
UP THE POSSIBILITY OF RAINFALL OVER THE JAMES RIVER BASIN. SETTLED
ON ABOUT ONE THIRD TO ONE HALF INCH RAIN TOTAL BY TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH THE
SOURIS PROBABLY MISSING THE BRUNT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS PRESENT THIS MORNING AT KMOT/KBIS/KJMS. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AFTER 15Z SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

NUMERICAL GUIDANCE PERFORMED QUITE POORLY YESTERDAY WHEN
DEWPOINTS DROPPED DRASTICALLY DUE TO AFTERNOON MIXING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AFTERNOON MIXING TO AROUND H7 IS LIKELY.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN DEWPOINTS SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED ON
FRIDAY...AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ARE FORECAST TO BE
EVEN WARMER THAN THOSE OBSERVED ON FRIDAY.

WITH RESPECT TO WINDS...MIXING TO AROUND H7 SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
SUSTAINED WINDS JUST UNDER 20 MPH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THE 00
UTC GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SPEEDS THAN OTHER GUIDANCE...BUT
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT EVEN HIGHER WINDS WILL BE REALIZED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.

WITH DEWPOINT GUIDANCE VERIFYING POORLY...THIS IS A LOWER
CONFIDENCE FORECAST THAN NORMAL. HOWEVER...VERY BROWN VEGETATION
AND AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES 10-15 PERCENT WILL RESULT IN
RED FLAG CONDITIONS AS LONG AS WINDS AROUND 20 MPH
MATERIALIZE. A FEW COUNTIES /MORTON...MERCER...OLIVER/ WITH
RECENTLY MELTED SNOW ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER HAVE NOT BEEN
UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING. FIRE DANGER IS ALSO NOTABLY LOWER
THERE BASED ON WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

THE OVERLAND FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SOURIS BASIN AND UPPER JAMES
BASIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH MORNING LOWS ABOVE FREEZING
WILL CONTINUE THE AGGRESSIVE MELT AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. WE
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RIVER RESPONSES TO BEGIN THIS WEEKEND AT
SEVERAL POINTS...INCLUDING THE WINTERING RIVER BELOW
KARLSRUHE...WHICH HAS JUST MOVED PAST ACTION STAGE. A RIVER POINT
FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED THIS MORNING THERE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 8 PM CDT /7
PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ017-018-031>033-040>045.

&&

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER/HYDROLOGY...SCHECK
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...SCHECK/TM

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