Areal Flood Advisory 21, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
701 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013

ADJUSTED ALL WEATHER ELEMENTS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
REMOTE SENSING IMAGERY.

LEAD SHORT WAVE IMPULSES FROM A NORTHERN ROCKIES TROUGH CONTINUE
TO GENERATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS EVENING. IT APPEARS
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION HAS MOVED INTO FAR WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AS OF 7PM CDT. VERY HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS
HAVE BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH ANY STORM. RIGHT NOW A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING MCS IS
THE PRIMARY FOCUS...AND MAY CONTINUE TO TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL
COUNTIES FOR A FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER.
STRONG STORMS...A FEW LIKELY PRODUCING SOME SMALL HAIL...HAVE
MOVED INTO FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA ON THE NOSE OF A H5 SHORT
WAVE AND IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH. THIS AREA WILL
LIKELY HAVE THE BIGGEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS...WITH THE BIGGEST THREATS LARGE HAIL AND A FEW
GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH. WILL ALSO BE WATCHING FOR A POSSIBLE
ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO IN BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW NEAR A BOUNDARY IN
THE NORTHWEST. LATER TONIGHT...SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD WANE AS
STORMS SPREAD EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED THROUGH THE HEART OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AREA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 200
AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER HAVE BEEN OUTLOOKED IN THE SPC DAY
2 SLIGHT RISK. HIGHER INSTABILITY...PWAT AOA 1.5 INCHES...ALONG
WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013

THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS A CONTINUATION OF THE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FROM THE SHORT TERM THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE.

THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A POTENTIAL
RE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST RIDGE POSSIBLY
PROPAGATING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS
SUPPORTS THE CONTINUED ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY. AT
THIS TIME...MOST OF SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE DRY IN THE WAKE OF
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...WITH POTENTIALLY LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WITH WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT AND THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET. GREATER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION...POSSIBLY SEVERE...LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH A POTENTIAL MCS APPARENT ON THE 12 UTC
GFS/ECMWF/GEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013

MODEL CONSENSUS PROVIDED ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO TAKE A STAB AT MORE
SPECIFIC TIMING FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
EXPECTING HIGHEST COVERAGE OF STORMS AT KMOT/KDIK THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING...WITH THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTING TOWARDS KBIS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

UPDATE...NH
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...NH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
652 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013

NDZ004-012-070000-
BOTTINEAU-MCHENRY-
652 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. A FEW COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. FOR DETAILS GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BIS. CLICK ON THE
RIVERS AND LAKES TAB NEAR THE TOP OF THE MAIN PAGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

EXPECT PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS LOW.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK.

NDZ001>003-005-009>011-013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-
070000-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-PIERCE-
MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-FOSTER-
GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-STUTSMAN-
SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-LA MOURE-
MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
652 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013 /552 PM MDT FRI JUL 5 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE THROUGH
THIS EVENING...WITH DAMAGING WIND AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN
THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

EXPECT SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY
EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 200.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK.

NH

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