Wind Advisory 4, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
332 AM EDT MON OCT 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TOMORROW BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
330 AM UPDATE...
VRY ACTIVE DAY IN STORE FOR AREA TDA. AT THE SFC LOPRES SITS UP OVR
SRN END OF HUDSON BAY WITH WMFNT DRAPED ACRS UPSTATE NY AND CDFNT
NOW INTO ERN OHIO WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ALONG
AND BHND IT. AS THE FRONT MVS THRU MOST LOCATIONS DROP APPROX 10F IN
A 3-HR PD. CWA IS CURRENTLY IN THE WM SECTOR WITH LOW STRATUS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR. THIS, IN ADDITION TO LLJ OF 45KTS IS
HELPING KEEP T AND TD VALUES UP IN THE 60S ACRS CWA.

ON WV IMAGERY UL LOW THAT TRACKED VRY SLOWLY ACRS THE PLAINS OVR THE
PAST FEW DAYS AND BROUGHT BLIZZARD AND SVR WX CONDITIONS TO THE NRN
PLAINS IS NOW LOCATED IN THE CORNBELT. AS NRN STREAM WV DROPPING
THRU ONTARIO CATCHES UP, IT SHUD SERVE TO GIVE THE UPR LOW THE KICK
IT NEEDS TO OPEN UP AND EJECT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

AHD OF THE FRONT LOW-LVL WINDS MAY BRING ADVISORY GUSTS TO THE
ONONDAGA/MADISON/OTSEGO AND ONEIDA CNTY AREAS. BASED ON LOCAL
STUDIES OF SE FLOW ADVISORY EVENTS HV OPTED TO ISSUE WIND ADVISORY
FOR THESE CNTYS BTWN 09Z AND 18Z DUE TO MAX WINDS BLO H8 > 50KTS.
PER KSYR BUFKIT SNDG AT 15Z THIS MRNG MAX WIND JUST BELOW H8 IS
60KTS WHICH ADDS A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE TO ADVISORY.

H2 JET STREAK LOCATED ON EAST SIDE OF UL LOW WL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST
TDA WITH CWA IN RRQ. THIS WL HELP TO ENHANCE LIFT ACRS THE AREA AND
WITH PW VALUES EXPECTED TO BE > 1.60 INCHES (2-3 SD ABV NORMAL)
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HVY RAINFALL TO OCCUR DRG A BRIEF WINDOW OF TIME
AS THE FRONT AND RAIN PUSHES EAST. WITH JET STREAK IN VICINITY, H8
JET WL ALSO INCREASE TO BTWN 50-65KTS PER ALL MODELS. THIS WL LKLY
LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER IN LOW-LYING SPOTS ON ROADWAYS AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS, LKLY EXACERBATED DUE TO FALLEN LEAVES AND CLOGGED
STORM DRAINS/DITCHES.

ALL MODELS SHOWING FROPA OCCURRING ALONG THE I-81 CORRIDOR SOMETIME
AROUND 18Z. BASED ON LATEST REGIONAL RADARS EXPECT THE HVY RAIN TO
LAG BHND THE FRONT BY AN HR OR TWO AND HV TRIED TO SHOW THIS IN THE
GRIDDED FCST. ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS TYPICAL OF A LOW CAPE-HIGH SHEAR EVENT.
WORRISOME TO ME IS THE FACT THAT THIS EVENT ENTAILS STRONG UPR FRCG
AND ANTICYCLONICALLY-CURVED HODOGRAPH WITH 0-3KM HELICITIES AROUND
450 M2/S2. IF A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS CAN DVLP THESE WL NEED TO BE
WATCHED VRY CAREFULLY AS ANY LITTLE BREAK CAN ALLOW A TORNADO TO
SPIN UP GIVEN THE ABOVE-MENTIONED PARAMETERS. SPC HAS INCLUDED A 2%
TOR PROBABILITY FOR AREAS EAST OF AN ELM-SYR LINE WITH A 5% PROB FOR
THE WRN CATS AND POCONOS REGION. IN ADDITION TO THIS VRY LOW CHC FOR
A TORNADO WL BE THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO OCCUR BFR 18Z FOR A MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH
MAXES IN THE M/U 60S. 12-HR QPF AMNTS EXPECTED TO RANGE ARND 1-1.25
INCHES, THO LCLY HIGHER IN THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...
FRONT EXITS STAGE RIGHT BY 00Z WITH A VRY SHARP END TO PCPN WITH
BNDRY. HWVR CLD AIR WL FILTER IN BHND AND WITH H8 TEMPS DROPPING
TOWARD +2C BY 06Z AND LAKE TEMPS STILL AT 16C, EXPECT STRATOCU TO
FORM TWD MIDNIGHT. MOIST LYR APPEARS AS IF IT WL BCM THICK ENUF TO
RESULT IN A FEW SPRINKLES AND/OR SHOWERS IN 290-300 FLOW.

HIPRES BUILDS IN ON TUESDAY WITH FULL SUN AND MIXING UP TO 900MB,
YIELDING HIGH TEMPS IN THE U50S/L60S. SUNNY SKIES WL BE THE
PREDOMINANT STORY FOR THE RMNDR OF THE SHORT TERM WITH HIPRES BOTH
AT SFC AND ALOFT KEEPING PCPN AT BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE PLEASANT FALL WEATHER AS HIGH
PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT RESIDES OVER THE NORTHEAST.
MODELS INDICATE A SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITHIN THE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUT THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S WHILE THE HIGHS WILL RUN
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAXES FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND
70.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW CLDS/STRATUS ACRS PORTIONS OF NE PA AND E CNTRL NY XPCTD TO
PERSIST EARLY THIS MRNG. LATER THIS MRNG AND EARLY AFTN...A STRONG
CDFNT WILL PASS THRU THE RGN WITH A BAND OF +RA AND EMBEDDED TSRA.
CRNT TIMING HAS FROPA ARND 16Z AT ELM...TO 18-19Z AT RME/AVP...WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 KTS AND G35-40. FOR NOW JUST PLAYED +SHRA IN
THE TAFS BUT LATER UPDATES MAY INCLUDE TSRA. AFTER FROPA LATER
THIS AFTN...XPCT CONDITIONS TO IMPRV RAPIDLY AS BKN MVFR CIGS LIFT
TO VFR. THIS EVNG THRU 06Z XPCT ONLY FEW-SCT CLDS WITH VFR
PREVAILING AND DIMINISHING WRLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE THRU FRIDAY...VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER EACH MORNING.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
339 PM EDT SUN OCT 6 2013

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-071945-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-
SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-
OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-
NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
339 PM EDT SUN OCT 6 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A COLD FRONT MONDAY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF UP TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE. THESE AMOUNTS ARE
LIKELY TO FALL IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. DUE TO THE HIGH
RAINFALL RATES...POOR DRAINAGE MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS. OUR RECENTLY FALLEN
LEAVES MAY ALSO HELP TO CAUSE PROBLEMS NEAR STORM DRAINS.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AND MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

HEDEN