Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
354 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT WILL
FUEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TOMORROW WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND
THE CHANCE FOR MORE THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT SHOWERS OR RAIN IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
330 PM UPDATE...
AREA OF TSTMS THAT MOVED THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY CREATED A LITTLE
MESO HIGH AND SUBSIDANCE WHICH ALLOWED GOOD SUNSHINE OVER NE PA
AND CENTRAL NY. TEMPERATURES SOARED INTO THE UPR 80S IN THE
WYOMING VALLEY AND NW UP THROUGH BRADFORD AND THE CHEMUNG RIVER
VALLEY. GOOD MIXING IN THIS AREA DROPPED DEW PTS INTO THE MID AND
UPR 50S. CU FIELD IS STARTING TO GROW OVER OUR WRN AREA AND THE
RADAR IS STARTING TO PICK UP NEW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HENCE ANOTHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. MESO MODELS INDICATE
A THIRD ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE THROUGH AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. DEW POINTS WILL REBOUND INTO THE EVENING HOURS
AND TEMPERATURES WILL NOTICEABLY DROP WITH SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THURS AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE THE INSTABILITY
AND CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT NOT TOTALLY NEGATE IT AS THERE
WILL STILL BE SOME GOOD SHEAR AND FRONT TO TRIGGER THINGS. ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT...LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES WILL AKE STRATOCU
AND LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TO HOLD IN OVER CETRAL NY ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. SOME STRATOCU AGAIN SATURDAY GIVING MOSTLY TO PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING COOL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PD BEGINS WITH A LRG AND COOL CANADIAN HP BLDG INTO THE AREA IN
THE WAKE OF A DEEP LOW OVER NEW ENG. H8 TEMPS DROP TO NEAR 0C BY
SUN MRNG WITH THE PSBLTY OF SOME LEFTOVER PCPN IN THE ERN ZONES.
REMAINDER OF THE PD SHOWS THE HIPRES BLDG IN AND WITH MODIFYING
TEMPS.LTL TO NO CHANCE OF PCPN AFT SUN MRNG. GRNLY FLWD HPC GUID
FOR THE PD...ALTHOUGH DID LWR THE TEMPS A BIT TO BE CLSR TO THE
MEX GUID.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONV DVLPD OVER THE CNTR OF THE FCST AREA BUT IS MVG AWAY FROM THE
TAF SITES. SHRT TERM MODELS SHOW A BRK IN THE ACTION FLWD BY SOME
CONV LTR IN THE PD AS ANOTHER WV PASSES. BEGAIN THE TAF PD WITH
VFR CONDS AND ADDED TEMPO FOR CONV LTR IN THE DAY. COLD FNT WILL
APPROACH FOR LATE IN THE PD SO HAVE FCST A CHANCE OF SHWRS AFT 12Z
WITH MVFR CONDS. WITH WILL GNRLY BE LGT AND SWLY THRU THE PD...BUT
WITH GUSTS PSBL INVOF TRWS.

OUTLOOK...

THU/THU NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRI - SAT...PSBL LINGERING RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA.

SUN - MON...VFR. BREEZY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BMW
NEAR TERM...BMW
SHORT TERM...BMW
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
521 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

NYZ022>025-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-230930-
STEUBEN-SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-
BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-
SOUTHERN WAYNE-
521 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM
FRONT REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE. INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE,
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AS A FRONT
APPROACHES. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TODAY.

NYZ009-015>018-036-037-044>046-230930-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-MADISON-
SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-OTSEGO-
521 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM
FRONT REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE. INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE,
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT, FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY IF
STORMS DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AS A FRONT
APPROACHES. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TODAY.

PN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
205 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0135 PM     HAIL             ROSCOE                  41.93N  74.92W
05/22/2013  E2.75 INCH       SULLIVAN           NY   PUBLIC

            *** 1 INJ *** PERSON INJURED BY FALLING HAIL AT THE
            CAMPGROUND IN ROSCOE AS HE WAS TRYING TO SEEK SHELTER IN
            BATH HOUSE AT CAMP GROUND.

&&

MJN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
211 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0155 PM     HAIL             LIVINGSTON MANOR        41.90N  74.83W
05/22/2013  E1.75 INCH       SULLIVAN           NY   PUBLIC

&&

MJN

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