Flash Flood Warning 51, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
342 PM EDT WED SEP 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY WARM HUMID WEATHER WILL COVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT... THEN A COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER
WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON IN A VERY MOIST... UNSTABLE AIRMASS AS THE UPPER
RIDGE SLOWLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN IN RESPONSE TO PASSAGE OF A WEAK
SHORT WAVE. STORMS HAVE EXHIBITED MODERATELY STRONG UPDRAFTS...
WITH A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE REPORTS THROUGH 330 PM... HOWEVER THEY
HAVE NOT BEEN LONG-LIVED OR WELL ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER AS OF YET. SHEAR WILL REMAIN MARGINAL
FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN NY
AND NORTHERN PA... BUT IS A BIT STRONGER ACROSS CENTRAL NY. BASED
ON THIS STORMS COULD EXHIBIT MORE ORGANIZATION AS THEY MOVE INTO
THE SYR/RME/UCA AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. REGARDLESS LARGE
AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THREAT INTO THIS EVENING... AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 9 PM.

STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT MAY NOT COMPLETELY DIE OUT AS
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL SLOWLY AND THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE. BASED ON THIS HAVE GONE WITH 40-50 POPS
FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING... THEN LOWERED TO
20 TO 30 POPS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN
UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH LOWS ONLY REACHING NEAR 70 IN MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY ONE OR TWO MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE SEVERITY OF THIS EVENT MAY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAIN AND
CLOUDINESS OCCURS IN THE MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THURSDAY MORNING IN A REGION OF CONTINUED MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
AND POSSIBLY A LEE SURFACE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE ATM FROM
GETTING AS UNSTABLE AS TODAY... BUT LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL BE
MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT AND ANY STORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON COULD STILL BE SEVERE. AT THIS POINT WE ARE
STILL EXPECTING MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS GIVEN THE STRONG
FORCING AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER WINDS AND SHEAR ACCOMPANYING THE
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH.

STORMS WILL END THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LAKE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO BY FRIDAY
MORNING AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND +5 DEGREES C. CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHERN
PA THROUGH FRIDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND +2...
WHICH WILL BE EASILY COOL ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
ESPECIALLY OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE
TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 50S IN SOME PLACES. SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AND
COOL WITH MORE SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH EXTENDED PERIOD. THE
NORTHEAST WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD IN AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WITH A
GRADUALLY BUILDING RIDGE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE MID WEST RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. OVERALL A FAIRLY DRY BUT COOL
EXTENDED FORECAST. ONLY PRECIP MAKER WILL BE A SFC COLD FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS FOR THIS BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS RESIDES OVER THE REGION AND WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. WE ARE CURRENTLY UNDER A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WATCH UNTIL 01Z. TO COVER THIS CONVECTION INCLUDED A
THREE HOUR TEMPO MVFR THUNDERSTORM GROUP AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OVERNIGHT, WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO HAZE/FOG. DENSE
FOG IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS.

ON THURSDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.. FOR ALL BUT KAVP INCLUDED TEMPO GROUP
FOR MVFR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
PERIOD.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND LAKE PLAIN. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED
BY SOUTHWEST WINDS AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...EARLY MVFR CIGS/-SHRA...MAY IMPROVE BY LTR IN THE DAY.

SAT/SUN...VFR...BUT MAYBE SOME EARLY MORNING FOG/IFR AT KELM.

SUN NIGHT/MONDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
TUESDAY UPDATE...
TODAY TO WED NGT SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES SHY OF THE RECORD HIGHS.
ESPECIALLY WITH THE LONGER THREADED SYRACUSE AND AVOCA RECORDS
BACK TO THE EARLY 1900S.

SEPT 10 RECORD HIGHS BGM 92 IN 1964 SYR 94 IN 1931 AVP 96 IN 1931
9/10 ACTUAL HIGHS BGM 84 SYR 89 AVP 92

SEPT 11 RECORD HIGHS BGM 87 IN 1983 SYR 97 IN 1931 AVP 95 IN 1931
SEPT 11 RECORD HIGH LOWS BGM 65 IN 1971 SYR 71 IN 1947 AVP 73 IN
1947

SEPT 12 RECORD HIGH LOWS BGM 68 IN 1961 SYR 70 IN 1906 AVP 74
IN 1931

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM
CLIMATE...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
346 PM EDT WED SEP 11 2013

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-122000-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-
SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-
OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-
NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
346 PM EDT WED SEP 11 2013

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 520 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

MSE

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