Severe Thunderstorm Warning 73, NWS La Crosse, WI

156 
WWUS53 KARX 211249
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
749 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

WIC023-043-103-211330-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0073.000000T0000Z-130621T1330Z/
CRAWFORD WI-GRANT WI-RICHLAND WI-
749 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR RICHLAND...
NORTHERN GRANT AND SOUTHERN CRAWFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 830 AM CDT...

AT 742 AM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTH OF WONEWOC TO MUSCODA TO 7 MILES
NORTHEAST OF BLOOMINGTON...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. A 50 MPH WIND GUST WAS REPORTED IN STEUBEN 
AT 745 AM.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  FENNIMORE AROUND 755 AM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE RED OAK RIDGE...KEYESVILLE...
BEAR VALLEY...HIGHWAY 130 AND COUNT B...CASTLE ROCK...PRESTON...LONE
ROCK...STITZER...ANNATON AND MONTFORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS!

&&

LAT...LON 4304 9116 4356 9042 4355 9018 4317 9018
      4321 9033 4319 9042 4284 9043
TIME...MOT...LOC 1248Z 293DEG 29KT 4352 9020 4320 9035
          4296 9078

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

JW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
602 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

AS SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT WARM AIR AND MOISTURE
INTO UPPER MIDWEST...FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS TIMING MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES. SEEMS LIKE A DIFFICULT TASK AT TIMES ONLY A
FEW HOURS OUT.

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER NORTHWEST U.S. WITH LARGE WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH. STEADY LOW LEVEL JET EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND 45 KTS
IS FUELING LARGE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA. CELLS
STARTED OVERNIGHT A BIT MORE DISCRETELY BUT AS COLD POOL HAS BEEN
DEVELOPING...MORE OF A LINEAR STRUCTURE UNFOLDING WHICH MAY CONTINUE
BUILDING SOUTHEAST ALONG WELL DEFINED WARM FRONT OR BOUNDARY INTO
AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK. LOWER MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES AND LOWER SHEAR
WOULD SUGGEST SYSTEM COULD WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES WISCONSIN BUT
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS...WHICH COULD INCLUDE A FEW WARNINGS. HAVE
ALSO BEEN TRACKING BAND OF CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN THAT
SEEM TO DEVELOP ALONG MID LEVEL NOSE OF WARMER AIR BUT SEEMS
UNLIKELY THESE WOULD UPSCALE INTO ANYTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE.

MESOSCALE MODELS AND SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO CHANGE NEARLY AS
QUICKLY AS RADAR IMAGERY WHICH HURTS ANY CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST. WITH BASIC UPPER AIR PATTERN CHANGING LITTLE...HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO TIME THINGS BASED ON BEST SIGNALS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
THIS TENDS TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA NEXT 48 HOURS SO EXPECT
GRADUAL TREND IN CONVECTIVE SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT ZONE FROM DAKOTAS AND
WESTERN MINNESOTA CLOSER TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER AREA GOING INTO
WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD BOOST RAIN THREAT AS WELL...BUT EXACTLY WHEN IS
DIFFICULT. PLENTY OF CAPE TO WORK WITH ALTHOUGH DEEPER SHEAR DOES
REMAIN FURTHER NORTHWEST...CLOSER TO DYNAMICS. COULD SEE A BREAK IN
ACTION LATER TODAY BEFORE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE AROUND
RIDGE HEADING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SAME PATTERN COULD KEEP GOING INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

REPEAT ROUNDS OF CONVECTION COULD ALSO LEAD TO PROBLEMATIC FLOOD
THREAT BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF TRACKS OF THESE SYSTEMS...WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR SHORT TERM CONDITIONS FOR ANY SPECIFIC FOCUS AREAS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY PERSISTENT FROM DAY TO DAY WITH
SUBTLE CHANGES DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLOUD DEBRIS IMPACTS HIGHS. DID
DROP HIGHS TODAY NORTH AND EAST OF LA CROSSE WHERE CONFIDENCE IN
CLOUD SHIELD INTO AFTERNOON IS HIGHEST. WARMEST LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES COME IN OVER WEEKEND SO DID BOOST HIGHS A FEW DEGRESS.

IN ADDITION...DEW POINTS DID NOT RESPOND AS QUICKLY AS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY...PERHAPS DUE TO RECENT DRY WEATHER...SOURCE REGION OF
AIRMASS...AND IMMATURE CROPS. SCALE BACK CLIMB OF DEW POINTS ANOTHER
24 HOURS BUT OVER TIME AS MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS...EXPECT THE
LOWER 70 DEGREE DEW POINTS TO ADVECT INTO AREA WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS
BEFORE WEEKEND ENDS. THIS COULD BOOST HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO 95 TO
100 DEGREES AT PEAK HEATING DURING MID TO LATE AFTERNOONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

LATER FORECAST PERIODS WILL INVOLVE PATTERN SHIFT AS HEIGHTS RISE IN
THE WESTERN CONUS. UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST...OR ROUNDS OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY...WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT ALONG NORTHERN TIER OF STATES OR
FAR SOUTHERN CANADA AS NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS INTO WESTERN GREAT
LAKES.

AS RIDGE AHEAD OF TROUGH BREAKS DOWN...COULD SEE BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY
SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH AREA WITH EVEN MORE CHANCES OF CONVECTION WELL
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT COOLING TREND IN THIS SCENARIO AS WELL
BUT COULD BE MORE GRADUAL THAN A SHARP COLD FRONT.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SHORT WAVE TROUGH COULD DROP THROUGH
IN DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING
COULD SPARK YET MORE RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE DRIER...NORTHWEST REGIME
SETS UP AS WESTERN MEAN RIDGE BUILDS TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 602 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

GIVEN DIFFICULT TASK OF PREDICTING IMPACT OF CONVECTION OUT PAST 6-8
HOURS...BIGGEST FOCUS IS ON SHORT TERM AS LINE OF STORMS MOVES
THROUGH AREA. GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN THE RULE OUTSIDE OF
STORMS BUT LINE MOVING THROUGH HAS BROUGHT AT LEAST IFR AT TIMES
WITH LIMITED VISIBILITIES IN HEAVIEST RAIN.

IN ADDITION TO 2-3 HOUR TIME WINDOW OF MOST STORM IMPACT...INCLUDING
LIMITED VISIBILITY AND GUSTY WINDS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN
AFTER THIS COMPLEX MOVES OUT OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. SERIES
OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE MOST BUT COULD SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION LATER IN THE DAY OR TONIGHT. HARD TO INCLUDE ANY DETAIL
THIS FAR OUT BUT WILL TRY AND FRAME IN A TIME RANGE WHERE AT LEAST
VICINITY STORMS COULD BE AROUND.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM....SHEA
AVIATION.....SHEA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
322 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044-053-221100-
ADAMS-BUFFALO-CLARK-DODGE-FILLMORE-HOUSTON-JACKSON-JUNEAU-LA CROSSE-
MONROE-MOWER-OLMSTED-TAYLOR-TREMPEALEAU-VERNON-WABASHA-WINONA-
322 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
THESE STORMS WILL BRING A HEAVY RAIN RISK...IN ADDITION TO GUSTY
WINDS...A THREAT FOR HAIL AND LIGHTNING. A FEW STORMS COULD PROMPT
SOME WARNINGS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

AFTER THESE STORMS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING...
THERE COULD BE A BREAK IN THE WEATHER...BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED BACK TO THE WEST EITHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. THIS
COULD TURN INTO ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
OTHER SEVERE WEATHER RISKS.

IN ADDITION...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING. HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID
90S.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

EXPECT PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND LOCATION...FORECAST DETAIL WILL BE ADDED AS EACH ROUND
OF STORMS GETS CLOSER.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE 90S ARE LIKELY EACH DAY. AS THE HEAT
INDICES INCREASE...SO DOES THE CONCERN FOR HEAT-RELATED ISSUES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WIND GUST REPORTS AND RAINFALL MAY BE NEEDED THIS MORNING FROM
AVAILABLE SPOTTERS. ADDITIONAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FROM
TIME TO TIME THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO WEBINAR IS CURRENTLY SCHEDULED.

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-WIZ054-055-061-221100-
ALLAMAKEE-CHICKASAW-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-FAYETTE-FLOYD-GRANT-HOWARD-
MITCHELL-RICHLAND-WINNESHIEK-
322 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST
IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BUT THEY SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING. THE THREAT FOR WIND GUSTS
AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO STAY CLOSER OR NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90.

AFTER THESE STORMS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING...
THERE COULD BE A BREAK IN THE WEATHER...BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED BACK TO THE WEST EITHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. THIS
COULD TURN INTO ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
OTHER SEVERE WEATHER RISKS.

IN ADDITION...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING. HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID
90S.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

EXPECT PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND LOCATION...FORECAST DETAIL WILL BE ADDED AS EACH ROUND
OF STORMS GETS CLOSER.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE 90S ARE LIKELY EACH DAY. AS THE HEAT
INDICES INCREASE...SO DOES THE CONCERN FOR HEAT-RELATED ISSUES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING...BUT
COULD BE NEEDED TONIGHT OR FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO WEBINAR IS CURRENTLY SCHEDULED.

SHEA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
637 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0614 AM     TSTM WND GST     3 NW HOLMEN             43.99N 91.30W
06/21/2013  E55 MPH          LA CROSSE          WI   NWS EMPLOYEE

0552 AM     HAIL             STEWARTVILLE            43.86N 92.49W
06/21/2013  E0.75 INCH       OLMSTED            MN   PUBLIC

            VIA TWITTER

&&

SHEA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
646 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 AM     TSTM WND GST     4 NNE STODDARD          43.71N 91.19W
06/21/2013  E50 MPH          VERNON             WI   NWS EMPLOYEE

            LASTED 5 MIN

0644 AM     HAIL             SPRING GROVE            43.56N 91.64W
06/21/2013  E0.25 INCH       HOUSTON            MN   PUBLIC

&&

SHEA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
652 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 AM     TSTM WND GST     FRENCH ISLAND           43.86N 91.26W
06/21/2013  M43 MPH          LA CROSSE          WI   ASOS

0651 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 E LOYAL               44.74N 90.41W
06/21/2013  M1.50 INCH       CLARK              WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SHEA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
700 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-WIZ042>044-053>055-061-211300-
ADAMS-ALLAMAKEE-CHICKASAW-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-FAYETTE-FLOYD-GRANT-
HOWARD-JUNEAU-MITCHELL-MONROE-RICHLAND-VERNON-WINNESHIEK-
700 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN...ALONG WITH NORTHEAST IOWA...

A LINE OF STORMS EXTENDED FROM NEAR WAUSAU WISCONSIN TO JUST SOUTH
OF LA CROSSE AND BACK INTO NORTHERN IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THEY
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND WILL BRING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND WIND
GUSTS. SMALL HAIL MAY ALSO FALL FROM TIME TO TIME.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER.

YOU CAN EXPECT STREET FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS ALONG WITH LIMITED
VISIBILITIES AS THE HEAVIEST RAIN HITS.

SHEA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
703 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0703 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 SW RENO               43.57N 91.32W
06/21/2013  M2.35 INCH       HOUSTON            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SHEA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
737 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0723 AM     HAIL             WEST UNION              42.96N 91.81W
06/21/2013  E0.25 INCH       FAYETTE            IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

0731 AM     TSTM WND GST     BOSCOBEL                43.14N 90.70W
06/21/2013  M58 MPH          GRANT              WI   ASOS

&&

SHEA