Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS La Crosse, WI

570 
WWUS53 KARX 192246
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
546 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

MNC157-169-WIC011-121-192330-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0019.000000T0000Z-130519T2330Z/
WABASHA MN-WINONA MN-BUFFALO WI-TREMPEALEAU WI-
546 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
TREMPEALEAU...BUFFALO...NORTHWESTERN WINONA AND SOUTHEASTERN WABASHA
COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

AT 543 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BUFFALO...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND          
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ALMA AROUND 555 PM CDT.
  MODENA AROUND 605 PM CDT.
  MONDOVI AROUND 620 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE HEROLD...CREAM...WAUMANDEE...
TELL...MONTANA...PRAAG...GILMANTON...LOOKOUT...MONDOVI AIRFIELD AND
ELEVA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH ONE IS NOT
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE
TO A PLACE OF SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT
OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4460 9183 4460 9132 4411 9181 4410 9213
TIME...MOT...LOC 2246Z 212DEG 36KT 4423 9186

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

RIECK

038 
WWUS53 KARX 192254
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
554 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

MNC157-169-WIC011-121-192330-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0019.000000T0000Z-130519T2330Z/
WABASHA MN-WINONA MN-BUFFALO WI-TREMPEALEAU WI-
554 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
TREMPEALEAU...BUFFALO...NORTH CENTRAL WINONA AND EAST CENTRAL WABASHA
COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

AT 552 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BUFFALO...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS. DIME SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED BY 
SPOTTERS SOUTH OF MINNEISKA.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND          
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MODENA AROUND 605 PM CDT.
  MONDOVI AROUND 620 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE MONTANA...PRAAG...GILMANTON...
LOOKOUT...MONDOVI AIRFIELD AND ELEVA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH ONE IS NOT
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE
TO A PLACE OF SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT
OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4421 9206 4460 9183 4460 9132 4411 9181
TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 212DEG 36KT 4430 9180

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

RIECK

710 
WWUS53 KARX 192302
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
602 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

MNC169-192312-
/O.CAN.KARX.SV.W.0019.000000T0000Z-130519T2330Z/
WINONA MN-
602 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL WINONA COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA.

LAT...LON 4417 9176 4422 9197 4460 9183 4460 9132
TIME...MOT...LOC 2302Z 212DEG 36KT 4437 9174

$$

MNC157-WIC011-121-192330-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0019.000000T0000Z-130519T2330Z/
WABASHA MN-BUFFALO WI-TREMPEALEAU WI-
602 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
TREMPEALEAU...BUFFALO AND EAST CENTRAL WABASHA COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM
CDT...

AT 557 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES EAST OF
ALMA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND          
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MONDOVI AROUND 620 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE GILMANTON...LOOKOUT...MONDOVI
AIRFIELD AND ELEVA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH ONE IS NOT
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE
TO A PLACE OF SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT
OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4417 9176 4422 9197 4460 9183 4460 9132
TIME...MOT...LOC 2302Z 212DEG 36KT 4437 9174

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

RIECK

154 
WWUS53 KARX 192311
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
611 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

MNC157-192321-
/O.CAN.KARX.SV.W.0019.000000T0000Z-130519T2330Z/
WABASHA MN-
611 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL WABASHA COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA.

LAT...LON 4422 9171 4430 9191 4460 9183 4460 9132
TIME...MOT...LOC 2311Z 215DEG 34KT 4439 9169

$$

WIC011-121-192330-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0019.000000T0000Z-130519T2330Z/
BUFFALO WI-TREMPEALEAU WI-
611 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
TREMPEALEAU AND BUFFALO COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

AT 607 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF MODENA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND          
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MONDOVI AROUND 625 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE GILMANTON...LOOKOUT...THE
BORST VALLEY AREA...MONDOVI AIRFIELD AND ELEVA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH ONE IS NOT
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE
TO A PLACE OF SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT
OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4422 9171 4430 9191 4460 9183 4460 9132
TIME...MOT...LOC 2311Z 215DEG 34KT 4439 9169

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

RIECK

219 
WWUS53 KARX 192319
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
619 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

WIC011-121-192330-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0019.000000T0000Z-130519T2330Z/
BUFFALO WI-TREMPEALEAU WI-
619 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
TREMPEALEAU AND NORTHERN BUFFALO COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

AT 616 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES EAST OF
MODENA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND          
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MONDOVI AROUND 625 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE THE BORST VALLEY AREA...
MONDOVI AIRFIELD AND ELEVA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH ONE IS NOT
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE
TO A PLACE OF SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT
OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4429 9165 4434 9189 4460 9183 4460 9132
TIME...MOT...LOC 2318Z 215DEG 34KT 4444 9164

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

RIECK

929 
WWUS53 KARX 192325
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
625 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

WIC011-121-192330-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0019.000000T0000Z-130519T2330Z/
BUFFALO WI-TREMPEALEAU WI-
625 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
TREMPEALEAU AND NORTHEASTERN BUFFALO COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

AT 621 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTH OF
MONDOVI...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES AND CROPS IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MONDOVI AROUND 630 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE MONDOVI AIRFIELD AND ELEVA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH ONE IS NOT
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE
TO A PLACE OF SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT
OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4432 9161 4440 9183 4460 9180 4460 9132
TIME...MOT...LOC 2325Z 215DEG 34KT 4449 9159

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

RIECK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
220 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SERVING AS ONE FOCUS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES HAVE CLEARED AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE...MOVING NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS IOWA...ALLOWING FOR RAPID
DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MUCAPES PER LATEST RAP ANALYSIS
HAVE RISEN INTO THE 2-3 K J/KG RANGE...WITH 30-40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE
SHEAR. SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IS SUPPORTED. SEE A POTENTIAL FOR ALL
SEVERE WEATHER TYPES...WITH SUPERCELLS MORPHING INTO BOWING
SEGMENTS. THINK DAMAGING WINDS MIGHT BECOME THE GREATER THREAT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HRRR SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
COMING IN TOWARD 06S AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES NORTHWARD ACROSS IOWA.
INSTABILITY WOULD DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT
GFS/NAM STILL SUGGEST 1000+ J/KG OF MUCAPE AT 06Z...WITH 40+ KTS OF
0-6 KM SHEAR. PLENTY TO CONTINUE A SEVERE THREAT.

FOR MONDAY...ATMOSPHERE PROGGED TO RELOAD FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH MUCAPES UPWARDS OF 2500 J/KG AND MLCAPES UP TO 2000 J/KG. 0-6KM
WIND SHEAR CLIMBS TO 40-50 KTS BY 00Z TUE...SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT. 0-1KM SHEAR IS 15-20 KTS. IF ALL THIS COMES TO
PASS...ATMOSPHERE WOULD BE RIPE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WITH ROTATING
SUPERCELLS AND THE GAMBIT OF SEVERE THREATS. THE KEY IS THE
KICKER...AND THAT IS WHERE THE FORECAST CHALLENGE LIES. GFS/NAM
SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD LIFT OUT OF THE BASE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT ALSO POINT TO POSSIBLE
MCVS SPINNING INTO THE REGION. MEANWHILE...THERE WILL LIKELY BE LEFT
OVER SFC BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION TODAY/TONIGHT. WHERE THESE LIE
IS UNKNOWN. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN WHERE/WHEN CONVECTION WILL
FIRE...BUT BELIEVE THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WOULD BE THE FAVORED
TIME FOR A SEVERE THREAT...AND GENERALLY FROM CENTRAL WI INTO
NORTHEAST IA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THE VIRTUALLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY STARTS TO MAKE ITS
WAY EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUE...PER LATEST GFS/NAM/EC. THE
LOW WEAKENS SOME AS IT SLIDES OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY TUE NIGHT/WED. MAIN COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL SLIP THROUGH WITH THE LOW AROUND WED...BUT MODELS KEEP
CONVECTION AT A MINIMUM AROUND IT. RATHER...THE PCPN FOCUS IS
WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WHICH IS WELL EAST OF THE
COLD FRONT...WRAPPING NORTH/WEST OF THE LOW. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT
WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THE AREAS OF SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS WOULD REACH
WED...WITH THE GFS MORE SOUTH THAN THE EC. IT REMAINS A MESSY
SCENARIO WITH CLARITY LACKING...BUT TRENDS FAVOR THE GREATER PCPN
CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL LEAN ON
MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE CHANCES.

TURNING BACK TO TUE...MUCAPES BUILD TO 1500+ J/KG OVER THE EASTERN
1/2 OF THE FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF
30-40 KTS. SOME SUGGESTIONS IN THE GFS/NAM OF A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW...WHICH COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT. ATMOSPHERE LOOKS GOOD FOR STORM PRODUCTION
IF A SPARK FOR CONVECTION IS THERE...WITH A SEVERE THREAT IN THE
EAST TUE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AGAIN...KEY HERE IS WHERE THE PCPN
FOCUSES WILL BE...INCLUDING ANY MESO SCALE BOUNDARIES AND/OR MCVS
LEFT FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION.

BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH PUSHING THAT
LINGERING LOW EAST/SOUTHEAST ON THU...ALLOWING AN UPPER LEVEL SFC
RIDGE/HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. SHOULD GET A
COUPLE DRIER DAYS AS A RESULT. HOWEVER...WARM/MOIST AIR ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH COUPLED WITH A BIT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD
RETURN SOME SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION SAT-SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
1236 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS ARE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT AND
MOVEMENT INTO RST/LSE TAF SITES AND THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE 19.12Z
NAM AND 19.15Z RAP MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT SOUTHERLY
MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE AREA. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A COUPLE OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO TRACK INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FLOW...INSTABILITY AND
LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ALLOW
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXIST AT TIMING OF CONVECTION OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE DELAYED TIMING OF VCTS AT BOTH TAF SITES AND
ADDED TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXIST AT BOTH TAF
SITES MAINLY AFTER 20Z SUNDAY TO AROUND 03Z MONDAY...DUE TO
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA. BOTH THE 19.12Z
NAM/19.15Z RAP INDICATE FOCUS OF SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FLOW OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN WISCONSIN AFTER 06Z MONDAY AND SHOULD PUSH
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EAST OF THE RST/LSE TAF SITES. LINGERING
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH TAF SITES TO AROUND 11Z AND 13Z
MONDAY. IN ADDITION...LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM THE 19.12Z NAM
AND 19.15Z SUGGEST CEILINGS IN THE MVFR RANGE WITH THE RAIN AND
CONVECTION. HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR RANGE CEILINGS AFTER 03Z AND 06Z
AT TAF SITES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA.

SOAKING RAINS AND HIGH SOIL MOISTURE FROM A WET SPRING HAS PRIMED
THIS AREA FOR FLASH FLOODING. A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. PWS ARE AROUND
150 PERCENT OR NORMAL...OR GREATER...THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ANY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...WOULD LIKELY
RESULT IN AT LEAST LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES...POTENTIALLY MORE
WIDESPREAD.

THIS FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE EXPANDED AND POSSIBLY EXTENDED INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS TODAY...AND IF DETAILS
SUGGEST THE FLOODING THREAT COULD REMAIN.

HOWEVER...MODELS PROVIDE SOME HOPE THAT THE HEAVIER RAIN THREAT
COULD SHIFT NORTH/EAST AS THE OFFENDING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INCHES
CLOSER FROM THE WEST. RELATIVELY DRIER AIR FROM THE ROCKIES/PLAINS
WOULD PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WHILE THE WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR
BELT WOULD MOVE INTO WI AND NUDGED NORTH.

RIVERS IN THE WATCH AREA WOULD ALSO SEE RAPID RISES ASIDE FROM THE
FLASH FLOODING EFFECTS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR MNZ079-086-087-094-095.

IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR IAZ008.

&&

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....WETENKAMP
HYDROLOGY....RIECK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1151 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

IAZ008-MNZ079-086-087-094-095-201000-
DODGE-FILLMORE-MITCHELL-MOWER-OLMSTED-WABASHA-
1151 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA
AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY. THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.

TWO ROUNDS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL
DEVELOP SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...THEN LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

INSTABILITY BUILDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
QUICKLY AND COULD BECOME SEVERE. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...
FLASH FLOODING...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE ALL POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ON MONDAY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...LOCALIZED
FLOODING...AND EVEN A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

IT IS LIKELY THAT SOME SPOTTER GROUPS WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. STAY TUNED TO LATER STATEMENTS FOR TIMING.
SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED MONDAY AS WELL.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED.

IAZ009>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ088-096-WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044-
053>055-061-201000-
ADAMS-ALLAMAKEE-BUFFALO-CHICKASAW-CLARK-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-FAYETTE-
FLOYD-GRANT-HOUSTON-HOWARD-JACKSON-JUNEAU-LA CROSSE-MONROE-RICHLAND-
TAYLOR-TREMPEALEAU-VERNON-WINNESHIEK-WINONA-
1151 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.

TWO ROUNDS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL
DEVELOP SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...THEN LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

INSTABILITY BUILDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
QUICKLY AND COULD BECOME SEVERE. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...
FLASH FLOODING...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE ALL POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ON MONDAY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...LOCALIZED
FLOODING...AND EVEN A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

IT IS LIKELY THAT SOME SPOTTER GROUPS WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. STAY TUNED TO LATER STATEMENTS FOR TIMING.
SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED MONDAY AS WELL.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED.

WETENKAMP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
439 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

MNZ079-087-088-095-WIZ032-192230-
BUFFALO-FILLMORE-OLMSTED-WABASHA-WINONA-
439 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS SHIFTING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH THROUGH
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AT 430 PM...THE LINE
EXTENDED ALONG HIGHWAY 52...FROM MINNEAPOLIS THROUGH THE
MINNESOTA-IOWA STATE LINE.

SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH THESE STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS
ARE THE MAIN THREAT...WITH LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CAN OCCUR...AND UNCONFIRMED REPORTS OF TORNADO DAMAGE HAVE
BEEN RECEIVED FROM NORTHEAST IOWA.

LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED THROUGH 6 PM INCLUDE...
LAKE CITY...WABASHA...ST CHARLES ...FOUNTAIN...EYOTA...
ROCHESTER...PRESTON.. .BUFFALO...NELSON.. ..AND DOVER.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM SUNDAY EVENING FOR
NORTHEASTERN IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

PREPARE NOW FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER. MOVE INDOORS AND IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED...TAKE ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

BAUMGARDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
449 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N NORA SPRINGS        43.17N 93.01W
05/19/2013                   FLOYD              IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLOYD COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS A BARN IS DOWN
            NORTH OF NORA SPRINGS...NUMEROUS LARGE TREES
            UPROOTED...AND 1 LARGE TREE FELL ON A HOUSE.

&&

ZT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
457 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0443 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NW ROCHESTER          44.05N 92.53W
05/19/2013                   OLMSTED            MN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TWITTER REPORT RELAYED BY KTTC OF POWER OUT NEAR TARGET
            NORTH AND DEBRIS DOWN ON ROADS NEAR THE RAILROAD TRACKS
            AND ASSISI HEIGHTS.

&&

ZT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
506 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 W OSAGE               43.28N 92.87W
05/19/2013                   MITCHELL           IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MITCHELL COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS BARN FELL ON
            CATTLE HERD...KILLING SOME OF THE CATTLE.

&&

ZT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
509 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S STEWARTVILLE        43.83N 92.49W
05/19/2013                   MOWER              MN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TWITTER REPORT RELAYED BY KTTC WITH A REPORT OF 30 LARGE
            PINE TREES DOWN

&&

ZT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
527 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0523 PM     HAIL             4 N ST. CHARLES         44.03N 92.06W
05/19/2013  M1.00 INCH       WINONA             MN   AMATEUR RADIO

            ALSO LARGE PIECES OF TIN METAL 6 FT LONG BLOWN OUT

&&

ZT