Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS La Crosse, WI

162 
WWUS53 KARX 192111
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
411 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

IAC037-067-131-192121-
/O.CAN.KARX.SV.W.0012.000000T0000Z-130519T2115Z/
MITCHELL IA-FLOYD IA-CHICKASAW IA-
411 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN CHICKASAW...
NORTHEASTERN FLOYD AND EASTERN MITCHELL COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE 
WARNED AREA.

LAT...LON 4349 9255 4350 9220 4322 9239 4322 9256
TIME...MOT...LOC 2111Z 202DEG 37KT 4338 9250 4350 9241
          4356 9237

$$

IAC089-192115-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0012.000000T0000Z-130519T2115Z/
HOWARD IA-
411 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN HOWARD
COUNTY UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

AT 409 PM CDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM RICEVILLE TO 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LE ROY TO 7
MILES EAST OF LE ROY...AND MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH.

A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HOWARD COUNTY. 

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...VEHICLES AND CROPS.
         EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4349 9255 4350 9220 4322 9239 4322 9256
TIME...MOT...LOC 2111Z 202DEG 37KT 4338 9250 4350 9241
          4356 9237

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

JW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
220 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SERVING AS ONE FOCUS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES HAVE CLEARED AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE...MOVING NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS IOWA...ALLOWING FOR RAPID
DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MUCAPES PER LATEST RAP ANALYSIS
HAVE RISEN INTO THE 2-3 K J/KG RANGE...WITH 30-40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE
SHEAR. SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IS SUPPORTED. SEE A POTENTIAL FOR ALL
SEVERE WEATHER TYPES...WITH SUPERCELLS MORPHING INTO BOWING
SEGMENTS. THINK DAMAGING WINDS MIGHT BECOME THE GREATER THREAT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HRRR SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
COMING IN TOWARD 06S AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES NORTHWARD ACROSS IOWA.
INSTABILITY WOULD DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT
GFS/NAM STILL SUGGEST 1000+ J/KG OF MUCAPE AT 06Z...WITH 40+ KTS OF
0-6 KM SHEAR. PLENTY TO CONTINUE A SEVERE THREAT.

FOR MONDAY...ATMOSPHERE PROGGED TO RELOAD FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH MUCAPES UPWARDS OF 2500 J/KG AND MLCAPES UP TO 2000 J/KG. 0-6KM
WIND SHEAR CLIMBS TO 40-50 KTS BY 00Z TUE...SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT. 0-1KM SHEAR IS 15-20 KTS. IF ALL THIS COMES TO
PASS...ATMOSPHERE WOULD BE RIPE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WITH ROTATING
SUPERCELLS AND THE GAMBIT OF SEVERE THREATS. THE KEY IS THE
KICKER...AND THAT IS WHERE THE FORECAST CHALLENGE LIES. GFS/NAM
SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD LIFT OUT OF THE BASE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT ALSO POINT TO POSSIBLE
MCVS SPINNING INTO THE REGION. MEANWHILE...THERE WILL LIKELY BE LEFT
OVER SFC BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION TODAY/TONIGHT. WHERE THESE LIE
IS UNKNOWN. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN WHERE/WHEN CONVECTION WILL
FIRE...BUT BELIEVE THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WOULD BE THE FAVORED
TIME FOR A SEVERE THREAT...AND GENERALLY FROM CENTRAL WI INTO
NORTHEAST IA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THE VIRTUALLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY STARTS TO MAKE ITS
WAY EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUE...PER LATEST GFS/NAM/EC. THE
LOW WEAKENS SOME AS IT SLIDES OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY TUE NIGHT/WED. MAIN COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL SLIP THROUGH WITH THE LOW AROUND WED...BUT MODELS KEEP
CONVECTION AT A MINIMUM AROUND IT. RATHER...THE PCPN FOCUS IS
WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WHICH IS WELL EAST OF THE
COLD FRONT...WRAPPING NORTH/WEST OF THE LOW. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT
WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THE AREAS OF SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS WOULD REACH
WED...WITH THE GFS MORE SOUTH THAN THE EC. IT REMAINS A MESSY
SCENARIO WITH CLARITY LACKING...BUT TRENDS FAVOR THE GREATER PCPN
CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL LEAN ON
MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE CHANCES.

TURNING BACK TO TUE...MUCAPES BUILD TO 1500+ J/KG OVER THE EASTERN
1/2 OF THE FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF
30-40 KTS. SOME SUGGESTIONS IN THE GFS/NAM OF A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW...WHICH COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT. ATMOSPHERE LOOKS GOOD FOR STORM PRODUCTION
IF A SPARK FOR CONVECTION IS THERE...WITH A SEVERE THREAT IN THE
EAST TUE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AGAIN...KEY HERE IS WHERE THE PCPN
FOCUSES WILL BE...INCLUDING ANY MESO SCALE BOUNDARIES AND/OR MCVS
LEFT FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION.

BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH PUSHING THAT
LINGERING LOW EAST/SOUTHEAST ON THU...ALLOWING AN UPPER LEVEL SFC
RIDGE/HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. SHOULD GET A
COUPLE DRIER DAYS AS A RESULT. HOWEVER...WARM/MOIST AIR ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH COUPLED WITH A BIT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD
RETURN SOME SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION SAT-SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
1236 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS ARE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT AND
MOVEMENT INTO RST/LSE TAF SITES AND THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE 19.12Z
NAM AND 19.15Z RAP MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT SOUTHERLY
MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE AREA. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A COUPLE OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO TRACK INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FLOW...INSTABILITY AND
LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ALLOW
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXIST AT TIMING OF CONVECTION OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE DELAYED TIMING OF VCTS AT BOTH TAF SITES AND
ADDED TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXIST AT BOTH TAF
SITES MAINLY AFTER 20Z SUNDAY TO AROUND 03Z MONDAY...DUE TO
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA. BOTH THE 19.12Z
NAM/19.15Z RAP INDICATE FOCUS OF SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FLOW OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN WISCONSIN AFTER 06Z MONDAY AND SHOULD PUSH
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EAST OF THE RST/LSE TAF SITES. LINGERING
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH TAF SITES TO AROUND 11Z AND 13Z
MONDAY. IN ADDITION...LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM THE 19.12Z NAM
AND 19.15Z SUGGEST CEILINGS IN THE MVFR RANGE WITH THE RAIN AND
CONVECTION. HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR RANGE CEILINGS AFTER 03Z AND 06Z
AT TAF SITES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA.

SOAKING RAINS AND HIGH SOIL MOISTURE FROM A WET SPRING HAS PRIMED
THIS AREA FOR FLASH FLOODING. A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. PWS ARE AROUND
150 PERCENT OR NORMAL...OR GREATER...THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ANY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...WOULD LIKELY
RESULT IN AT LEAST LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES...POTENTIALLY MORE
WIDESPREAD.

THIS FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE EXPANDED AND POSSIBLY EXTENDED INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS TODAY...AND IF DETAILS
SUGGEST THE FLOODING THREAT COULD REMAIN.

HOWEVER...MODELS PROVIDE SOME HOPE THAT THE HEAVIER RAIN THREAT
COULD SHIFT NORTH/EAST AS THE OFFENDING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INCHES
CLOSER FROM THE WEST. RELATIVELY DRIER AIR FROM THE ROCKIES/PLAINS
WOULD PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WHILE THE WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR
BELT WOULD MOVE INTO WI AND NUDGED NORTH.

RIVERS IN THE WATCH AREA WOULD ALSO SEE RAPID RISES ASIDE FROM THE
FLASH FLOODING EFFECTS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR MNZ079-086-087-094-095.

IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR IAZ008.

&&

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....WETENKAMP
HYDROLOGY....RIECK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1151 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

IAZ008-MNZ079-086-087-094-095-201000-
DODGE-FILLMORE-MITCHELL-MOWER-OLMSTED-WABASHA-
1151 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA
AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY. THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.

TWO ROUNDS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL
DEVELOP SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...THEN LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

INSTABILITY BUILDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
QUICKLY AND COULD BECOME SEVERE. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...
FLASH FLOODING...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE ALL POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ON MONDAY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...LOCALIZED
FLOODING...AND EVEN A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

IT IS LIKELY THAT SOME SPOTTER GROUPS WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. STAY TUNED TO LATER STATEMENTS FOR TIMING.
SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED MONDAY AS WELL.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED.

IAZ009>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ088-096-WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044-
053>055-061-201000-
ADAMS-ALLAMAKEE-BUFFALO-CHICKASAW-CLARK-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-FAYETTE-
FLOYD-GRANT-HOUSTON-HOWARD-JACKSON-JUNEAU-LA CROSSE-MONROE-RICHLAND-
TAYLOR-TREMPEALEAU-VERNON-WINNESHIEK-WINONA-
1151 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.

TWO ROUNDS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL
DEVELOP SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...THEN LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

INSTABILITY BUILDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
QUICKLY AND COULD BECOME SEVERE. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...
FLASH FLOODING...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE ALL POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ON MONDAY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...LOCALIZED
FLOODING...AND EVEN A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

IT IS LIKELY THAT SOME SPOTTER GROUPS WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. STAY TUNED TO LATER STATEMENTS FOR TIMING.
SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED MONDAY AS WELL.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED.

WETENKAMP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
141 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

WIZ061-191945-
GRANT-
141 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

AT 140 PM...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES
SOUTH OF SINSINAWA...MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM.

LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
SINSINAWA...HAZEL GREEN...LOUISBURG...CUBA CITY...GEORGETOWN AND BIG
PATCH.

THESE WIND GUSTS COULD BLOW AROUND OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT
OBJECTS. SMALL BRANCHES MAY ALSO FALL. SEEK SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A
BUILDING.

JW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
235 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

IAZ008-009-018-019-MNZ094-095-192030-
CHICKASAW-FILLMORE-FLOYD-HOWARD-MITCHELL-MOWER-
235 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

AT 230 PM...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 12 MILES WEST OF NORA SPRINGS TO 22 MILES SOUTH OF
POWERSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH. IF THESE STORMS
INTENSIFY...WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED.

LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MARBLE ROCK...ROCKFORD...CHARLES CITY...NORA SPRINGS AND RUDD.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM SUNDAY EVENING FOR
NORTHEASTERN IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

PREPARE NOW FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER. MOVE INDOORS AND IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED...TAKE ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

WETENKAMP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
318 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0314 PM     HAIL             CHARLES CITY            43.07N 92.68W
05/19/2013  M1.00 INCH       FLOYD              IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

HALBACH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
327 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0326 PM     HAIL             1 W OSAGE               43.28N 92.83W
05/19/2013  M1.00 INCH       MITCHELL           IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LOTS OF QUARTER SIZED HAIL COVERING THE GROUND ALONG HWY
            9.

&&

HALBACH